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Athletic Dir [863]
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What are the scenarios for Louisville to get back in the top 4
Nov 16, 2016, 11:09 AM
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That don't include a Clemson loss
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All-In [26464]
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Louis Win Out ... Washington lose again.***
Nov 16, 2016, 11:11 AM
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CU Guru [1477]
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Re: Louis Win Out ... Washington lose again.***
Nov 16, 2016, 11:14 AM
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Yep this is basically it. HIGHLY doubt they take one of the 2-loss Big Ten teams instead of UL.
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Standout [310]
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Re: Louis Win Out ... Washington lose again.***
Nov 16, 2016, 11:17 AM
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Exactly. If that happened then I could see Louisville being rightfully upset.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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I think you are wrong about that. An 11-2 Wisconsin team
Nov 16, 2016, 11:18 AM
[ in reply to Re: Louis Win Out ... Washington lose again.*** ] |
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that wins the B1G title is probably in ahead of an 11-1 Louisville team. Wisconsin will have at least beaten LSU and Penn State which trumps Louisville's lone good win (FSU). Two losses to OSU and Michigan aren't bad either. If Louisville is hanging their hat on a "good loss" at Clemson, Wisconsin can do the same with those two.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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AND Michigan needs to beat OSU.
Nov 16, 2016, 11:16 AM
[ in reply to Louis Win Out ... Washington lose again.*** ] |
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If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten and OSU is sitting at 11-1, they will be, by far, the better of the 11-1 non-division champs and would get in ahead of Louisville.
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Legend [19537]
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Re: AND Michigan needs to beat OSU.
Nov 16, 2016, 11:27 AM
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OSU will get in ahead of louisville regardless if they win out. OSU isn't who they need to worry about. It's washington.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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I'm saying they need Washington and OSU to lose.
Nov 16, 2016, 11:29 AM
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If OSU beats Michigan there's a pretty strong chance the B1G gets two teams in. There would be two non-division champs sitting at 11-1, OSU and Louisville, and Louisville would very clearly be 2nd in that pecking order. They need OSU to fall to 10-2.
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Legend [19537]
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Re: I'm saying they need Washington and OSU to lose.
Nov 16, 2016, 11:31 AM
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They don't need OSU to lose. If OSU wins out they will be #2 or #3 if clemson jumps them. Lousiville will fight for the #4 spot with washington. a 2 loss big10 team will not get in if louisville and washington win out.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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What makes you so confident that 11-1 Louisville gets in
Nov 16, 2016, 11:36 AM
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ahead of 11-2 B1G champ Wisconsin or Penn State? I think it's very likely that the B1G winner would get in ahead of Louisville in that situation.
That would also mean putting in TWO teams that didn't even win their divisions. I don't think the committee is ready to go that far.
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Hall of Famer [22380]
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Probably need a Wisconsin win in the Big 10 Championship
Nov 16, 2016, 11:17 AM
[ in reply to Louis Win Out ... Washington lose again.*** ] |
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since Penn State would have two high quality wins to go with a conference championship if they beat OSU and Wisconsin, while Wisconsin would only have one.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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I don't know about that. Penn State's losses are quite a
Nov 16, 2016, 11:23 AM
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bit weaker than Wisconsin's losses. Penn State got hammered at Michigan and lost to Pitt. Wisconsin played Michigan really close on the road and lost to OSU in OT. Penn State would have a little bit better wins (OSU and Wisconsin), but Wisconsin would have LSU and Penn State plus Nebraska (for whatever that's worth).
FEI has Wisconsin's current schedule played ranked 3rd in the nation. PSU is 11th. Both very good, but i don't think PSU is a more convincing candidate than Wisconsin. They would be pretty even IMO.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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Yep.***
Nov 16, 2016, 11:37 AM
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Legend [15212]
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Michigan and Clemson win out. Washington and WVU lose
Nov 16, 2016, 11:27 AM
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1 more game.
Louisville is #4 playing Bama.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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They will need some help...
Nov 16, 2016, 11:28 AM
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If Clemson wins out, they're in.
Even if Alabama loses to Auburn, barring something totally unforeseen in the $ECCG, Alabama is in.
The winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game gets in assuming they hold serve and win the B1G Championship (likely against Wisconsin). If Wisconsin wins the B1G Championship, even with two losses, I could seem them jumping Louisville in the final poll.
If Washington wins out, I think they're in too. However, they still have to play Washington State and then, assuming they win, they'd probably face Colorado in the Pac12 Championship game. To me, this is the most likely avenue to the playoffs for Louisville.
The final piece of the puzzle is West Virginia. Another loss by the Mountaineers, also helps Louisville's chances. They play Oklahoma Saturday.
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CU Medallion [58313]
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Agreed - SEC, ACC, and BIG10 champs are in.
Nov 16, 2016, 11:56 AM
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If Washington wins out, they will have 2 more quality wins over ranked teams than now, plus they will be conf champs. Louisville will not get in if it goes that way.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: What are the scenarios for Louisville to get back in the top 4
Nov 16, 2016, 11:35 AM
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Who cares...
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CU Guru [1087]
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i think they would put both Penn St and Wisconsin
Nov 16, 2016, 11:49 AM
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in over them if they were conference champs, and a 1 loss Ohio St.
So, I think their only way is for Penn St lose to either Rutgers or Michigan St and Ohio St beat Michigan and then win the Big 10.
Or, even more unlikely, Alabama lose to both Auburn and the SEC East in the Championship game.
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Athletic Dir [865]
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A two loss team has not place in the CFP. Doesn't the
Nov 16, 2016, 12:32 PM
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regular season have to mean something?
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Team Captain [450]
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Michigan win out and Washington lose again
Nov 16, 2016, 11:51 AM
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If Michigan beats Ohio St and Wisconsin they are both out
Washington loses again and they are out because they won't have the Conference champion ship holding them up
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Athletic Dir [865]
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They are in if they win out.
Nov 16, 2016, 12:29 PM
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Wisconsin, Washington, and WVU are long shots to make the CFP.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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I don't think those 3 are in the same category
Nov 16, 2016, 1:33 PM
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These are my current tiers of playoff contenders:
Tier 1 - In even if they lose 1 more - Bama
Tier 2 - In if they win out - Michigan, Clemson
Tier 3 - *Probably* in if they in out but not 100% - Ohio State, Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State
Tier 4 - Need to win out and get a good bit of help - Louisville
Tier 5 - Need to win out and get A LOT of help - West Virginia, Oklahoma
And then if you look at how likely each is to actually win out.. I really don't feel good about WVU or Washington's chances. Washington still has a nice chance if they win out, but probably won't be able to do it. WVU probably won't win out, and then, even if they do, they probably still won't get in. Wisconsin and Penn St will probably win out in the regular season and then that game will be roughly a coin flip, but those two teams are fairly interchangeable at this point and it's very likely one of the two wins the B1G at 11-2.
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