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Topic: We are overachieving (long post)
Replies: 8   Last Post: Jan 4, 2021, 4:34 PM by: TigerByWater
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We are overachieving (long post)

emoji_events [9]
Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 2:12 PM
 

Everyone needs to relax. The sky is not falling and Clemson football is not regressing. In order to cheer myself up over the embarrassing loss we just suffered, I decided to do some analysis on our recruiting rankings compared to Ohio State and Clemson. It told me everything I needed to know about our coaching staff and the direction our program is headed. We are significantly overachieving compared to Alabama and Ohio State, compared to all of our levels of recruiting and talent. Alabama has finished in the top 5 of recruiting every year since Dabo has taken over and they have the #1 class 9 out of the 12 years. Ohio State has finished in the top 5 of recruiting 9 out of the 12 years since Dabo has been at Clemson. Clemson has only finished in the top 5 twice since Dabo has take over, each being the past 2 years.

Our average recruiting ranking since Dabo has taken over is 14th. During this same time, Ohio State's is 6th and Alabama 2nd. During this time we have strung together 143 wins, 7 conference titles, 2 national championships, 6 playoff appearances, 3 wins over Ohio State, and 2 over Alabama. The only concern I have is our tendency to get blown out in big games. Since Dabo has taken over, we have experienced 9 losses of 21 points or more, which I consider a blowout. This is something Dabo definitely needs to shore up as this causes damage to the programs image. A positive note on this is that we are the only team to give Bama a blowout in the past 12 years. We've also handed Ohio State 1 of their 4 blowouts in the past 12 years.

The point is, we are just now recruiting at an elite level during Dabo's tenure. I truly believe Clemson will be the team of the next decade with how our current recruiting is going and the facility improvements we've made and are continuing to make. We will be in contention for the National Title every year for the next decade. So relax and enjoy the ride.

I've attached an Excel document to this post that shows recruiting rankings year be year and number of wins if you want to dig deeper into this analysis.

Clemson since 2008:
Total Wins 143
Average Ranking 14
Conference Titles 7
Playoff Appearances 6
Playoff Wins 6
National Titles 2
Wins over Ohio St 3
Wins over Alabama 2
Losses >= 21 points 9

Ohio State since 2008:
Total Wins 146
Average Ranking 6
Conference Titles 6
Playoff Appearances 4
Playoff Wins 3
National Titles 1
Wins over Clemson 1
Wins Over Alabama 1
Losses >= 21 points 4

Alabama since 2008:
Total Wins 162
Average Ranking 2
Conference Titles 7
Playoff Appearances 6
Playoff Wins 5
National Titles 5
Wins over Ohio St 1
Wins Over Clemson 2
Losses >= 21 points 1

Message was edited by: E36Tiger®


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Really interesting stuff - did you mention an attachment?


Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 2:18 PM
 

TY for doing a deep dive into this!

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"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson


Re: We are overachieving (long post)


Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 2:26 PM
 

I researched the same thing. Posted in another thread the same points you covered. We are going to be nasty next year. We will finally have multiple veteran 5 stars on both sides of the ball for the first time. Our QB is proven leading the largest home comeback that I can remember, and passing for the most yard ever against Notre Dame, a playoff team.

link

Re: We are overachieving (long post)

[1]
Posted: Jan 4, 2021, 4:17 PM
 

What has me hopeful is our recent offensive line recruiting success. We have never recruited the talent we are now getting at the oline. We lost the other night because our offensive line is a major weakness for this team, and has been.

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Re: We are overachieving (long post)


Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 2:26 PM
 

I researched the same thing. Posted in another thread the same points you covered. We are going to be nasty next year. We will finally have multiple veteran 5 stars on both sides of the ball for the first time. Our QB is proven leading the largest home comeback that I can remember, and passing for the most yard ever against Notre Dame, a playoff team.

link

Re: We are overachieving (long post)


Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 2:27 PM
 

The best is yet to come!

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Wish there was some way to measure contribution to the


Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 2:38 PM
 

program by a recruiting class. How many actually play vs. leave the school for various reasons. I believe that Clemson holds onto their recruits better, so recruit less players each year due to having fewer slots available. Average star rating might be a start, but not the entire picture.

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Re: Wish there was some way to measure contribution to the

[1]
Posted: Jan 3, 2021, 5:24 PM
 

I totally agree with this post. I think all would agree that the Tigers have brought in some big time young players. I sometimes wonder why the emphasis is always on skill guys however. Bringing in a top QB every year is good but in reality, only a few of these will ever actually be a franchise type of player and many will play very few minutes early in games. Every coach and every fan knows that football games are won at the line of scrimmage. I would much rather have two offensive tackles who will play in the NFL than have a dozen skill guys who were five stars! The competition every week in practice is what makes a team great. Control the LOS and you control the game. Every time. Clemson didn’t do that Friday night.

link

Re: We are overachieving (long post)


Posted: Jan 4, 2021, 4:34 PM
 

I would ask whether the rankings you reference are per recruit or overall. I think the argument is not as strong when you look at per player numbers. We have recruited at a very high level for multiple years, but our rankings are knocked down by getting consistently fewer recruits. To me, the better analysis would be the star rankings of the 2-deep or 3-deep of each team annually vs results.

STS used to do a positional analysis of recruiting rankings per position group. I think that also would be highly enlightening.

That said, tremendous work. I love this type of data.

link


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