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Commissioner [923]
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This Recruiting Cycle
Apr 25, 2022, 8:00 PM
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I predict we run table through the regular season and win the ACC unbeaten and make the CFB playoffs. I am confident our defense will be lights out from the get go and not waver. I think our offense will be servicable but gain momentum as the season progresses. Do we win a Natty, not going that far.
If we want to stay relevant in college football beyond 2022, we need all of these things to happen.
For anyone who spends anytime following college football recruiting knows we do not have our usual buzz on the recruiting trail. Sure, we have three commits (Joseph and Vizzina are huge gets) but if you look at our 1st and 2nd wave of offers, we in it for only a very few. This is not the norm compared to the last 6-7 years, not even close. Even if we killed it the week of June 3-5 and got half of the attendees to commit, we will be way short of a full class. I think we are going to see a significant number of 2023 offers come out after CDS football camps wrap up, considerable more than usual and to lesser known recruits.
For us to have a high quality 2023 class and not a high percentage of fallbacks, we will need a few last minute "surprise" commits similar to Simpson, Wiggins and Leigh. Which is why an unbeaten 2022 minus CFP is so critical.
I know, I know...NIL...I have total confidence in CDS...Renfrow...we won 2 Natties with a boat load of 3 star prospects...we develop better than anyone else, etc...
Anyone who says this is status quo or we are on the right path, has their head in the sand.
For the record, I haven't forgot the mediocre 90's and early 2000's, and am thrilled with 10 win seasons but college football history is littered with programs that climbed the mountain only to fall down before a sustainable foundation was in place.
Go Tigers!
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All-In [40738]
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Nowadays it matters much less what a program does on the
Apr 25, 2022, 9:26 PM
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field when it comes to recruiting. Most of these highly rated recruits are going to the highest bidder. You either have the money to win the recruiting game or you don’t.
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Commissioner [923]
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Re: Nowadays it matters much less what a program does on the
Apr 25, 2022, 9:56 PM
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I would agree with this for the top 100-150 recruits.
However, if you can consistently recruit well with recruits ranked 100-400 and find a few late bloomers, I think it is possible to compete. And then throw in a few disgruntled high end transfer portal guys and now you have a top 10 roster I think.
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All-In [48152]
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Re: Nowadays it matters much less what a program does on the
Apr 25, 2022, 11:52 PM
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100 in agreement with your assessment. I wouldn't say the top 100-150. There's a good many of those that go to Bama and/or uga that NIL doesn't come into play.
That's where I disagree with smack16, I do think it matters to enough recruits if you compete at a high level. We can sustain last year as down year... Although, imo it started with our last 2 playoff disasters.
That said, we filled the take with last minute project players this year. CDS didn't choose to use the portal and we still have open schollys that will most likely be handed out in the summer to a bunch of walk ons. Hate the negative press towards Dabo and our program but some of it has merit.
Go Tigers.
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MVP [533]
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Re: Nowadays it matters much less what a program does on the
Apr 26, 2022, 4:08 AM
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True and it's difficult to sustain self imposed handicaps when the state of SC annually produces very few blue chip prospects, unlike the states in which our recruiting opponents reside(save for ND)-
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All-In [40738]
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We could win it all this year and many of these
Apr 26, 2022, 12:58 PM
[ in reply to Re: Nowadays it matters much less what a program does on the ] |
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highly rated recruits simply will not give us a serious look without us matching the type of money being offered to them. I don’t like it any more than anyone else but it’s the truth. A lot of these kids are going to the highest bidder period. However, we still have a lot going for us. We will still get great players. I believe we will still be a top program and we have the best coach in America to navigate this thing for us. Whether we like it or not we face an uphill battle. When Dabo hits a home run on some under the radar recruit other schools will be coming after them once everyone sees how that player develops. Dabo has already indicated multiple times that there is some tampering going on. It’s a sad reality but right now this is the way it is until the NCAA puts a stop to this Wild West transfer portal/NIL game.
Now as far as the recruits who are not going to the highest bidder, yes our on the field performance will matter….some. However, after following our recruiting for years the Tahj Boyds, the CJs and the Sammys did not wait on us to become championship caliber before they made the decision to come to Clemson. The relationship they had with our coaches brought them to us and that will continue to play a factor moving forward. However, I’m not naive enough to think that NIL is not hurting and will continue to hurt our recruiting moving forward.
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All-TigerNet [10401]
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We simply don't have the purchasing power that several of
Apr 26, 2022, 9:09 AM
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these "schools" have and I'm sure by now the blue-chip recruits know the lay of the land who the big spenders are.
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All-American [587]
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Re: This Recruiting Cycle
Apr 26, 2022, 1:42 PM
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Our problem is less that we aren't getting 4*+ talent, it's that our hit rate is regressing to the mean.
Look at classes from 2015-2018. A high % of the top 5 recruits from each class ended up being major contributors or stars.
Now look at the classes from 2019-2021. Most of the top players ended up being backup role players, injury prone, or have since transferred out of the program.
I'd be interested to see where Clemson ranks in tracking = % of 4/5 star players that become multi-year starters and/or All-conference. I would wager that we were above the mean from 2015-2019 and have been at, or below, the mean the last few years.
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All-In [38524]
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Re: This Recruiting Cycle
Apr 26, 2022, 4:34 PM
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TrueTiger you seem to be a "SunShine Pumper" as to this season.
I like that and agree. I too believe this team has incredible potential.
Coach Dabo came on board when we could not compete (or were not competing). Coach Bowden was the real start. Dabo won with less and got guys to consider Clemson.
May no mistake, "other" teams were paying big bucks for players back then.
NIL combined with the portal is a new era. To compete at the highest level will mean $$$ and more $$$.
CootSmackdown16®
"highly rated recruits simply will not give us a serious look without us matching the type of money being offered to them".
That is the bottom line.
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Commissioner [923]
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Re: This Recruiting Cycle
Apr 27, 2022, 8:35 AM
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Too funny Tuga, I don't think I have ever had the pleasure of being labeled a "sunshine pumper!" When talking about this year's defense I will gladly take it but I probably trend closer to realist in most cases.
This defense is going to be special, fingers crossed the offense get their act together and just be average or close to it. It will be impossible to block the front 4 one-on-one, any blitzer will run free every time. The back 4 will have plenty of inexperience and will give up a few big plays but I bet we lead the country in number of negative yardage plays. This will be our best chance at adding another Natty for a while I am afraid.
I think this defense illustrates how important recruiting is and how blase some of our fanbase can be to it. In the 2023 NFL draft we will have 2 in the top 15 (Murphy & Breese, if healthy). Simpson mid-late 1st round and Thomas early 2nd to 4th depending on performance. Everyone one of these guys was a 5 star. Murphy, Breese and Simpson all out of the 2020 class. We have hit on a very high percentage of 5 star defensive prospects who have made significant contributions to our run over the last 10 years. Offense...we have had a few misses but there are still plenty we nailed.
The statistics prove that the highest percentage of 1st round picks on 5 star players, keep in mind, only 32-35 of roughly 1,430 incoming freshman get a 5 star rating (65 power 5 schools @ 22 avg. schollys). Depending on which recruiting service you look at only another 260-320 get a 4 star rating. Keep in mind, add in Group of 5 and then you see how special it is to even get a 4 star recruit.
There will always be a Renfrow, Jarrett, Skalski who will out play their rating but they are the outliners and building a recruiting class on hunches, reaches and fallbacks is not a recipe for top end program. This is why I say if we can't be super successful recruiting the top 100-300 prospects each year we will most likely digress.
More offers earlier in the cycle, less reliance on last minute fallbacks, a few strategic transfer guys and one or two NIL indifferent guys and we have a chance.
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