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Orange Blooded [2692]
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this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 7:11 PM
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especially those who have predicted nothing but doom and gloom for the last six months...... as they sharpen their steely knives.
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Hall of Famer [23991]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 7:31 PM
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Wow, they were really off in March. I'm thinking inflation is not going to be the problem in a couple years
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All-In [26966]
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You may have been the one to mention this
Jul 5, 2022, 8:30 PM
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But the Fed's decision to spike rates to check inflation even at the risk of chilling spending was the right move.
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Heisman Winner [111436]
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Hall of Famer [21891]
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From a pure Economics, inflation focused perspective
Jul 6, 2022, 7:57 AM
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you could argue we were very fortunate that wages didn't take off as quickly, or as drastically, as the inflation metrics. At that point, it would've gotten out of control and very difficult to contain.
Like my boy Zoltan said...
...lowering asset prices was the only card the Fed had left to play to attempt to control wages and in turn, attempt to lower inflation. The FOMC even said as much in May and June minutes, pointing out the fact that the labor market has plenty of room to fall (so to say) as they battle inflation.
I'm not convinced we'll have the soft landing JPow and his gang are shooting for...hopeful, but don't see it happening.
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Legend [17759]
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Re: From a pure Economics, inflation focused perspective
Jul 6, 2022, 3:40 PM
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Serious question: Have we ever had a “soft landing” after a protracted economic growth period? Especially one where all sorts of assets shot up at the end like hockey sticks??
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Hall of Famer [23991]
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Re: You may have been the one to mention this
Jul 6, 2022, 7:11 AM
[ in reply to You may have been the one to mention this ] |
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I don't think they have a choice. We're going to experience a free money hangover. I know Tiggity will disagree, and I respect his opinion, but this seems like more of a normal business cycle than what we have seen over the past couple of decades.
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Hall of Famer [21891]
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It was the right decision
Jul 6, 2022, 7:51 AM
[ in reply to You may have been the one to mention this ] |
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but it was about a year too late. They were too busy pushing the transitory narrative, and prepping to pass another $3T spending bill.
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Hall of Famer [23991]
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Re: It was the right decision
Jul 6, 2022, 8:13 AM
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What do you think? Time to put on my Monopoly hat, light up a cigar, belt out an evil banker laugh, and drop oil? Call it a run? Or too soon?
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Hall of Famer [21891]
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Don't take my advice
Jul 6, 2022, 8:19 AM
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I got out of oil in April b/c I'm an idiot haha
I will say, the rollover in commodities yesterday is leading many to believe the recession trade is on.
Nothing wrong with taking some profits (ever) and putting a re-entry target back out there.
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Legend [19889]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 8:18 PM
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Back on a Bull run?
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Orange Blooded [2692]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 8:27 PM
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Lol, no.
We won’t have a bull run again until Boomers exit the stage.
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110%er [5650]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 8:37 PM
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I have to admit I have never seen a 5-year break even inflation chart. What is this telling me?
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All-TigerNet [10867]
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Nada***
Jul 5, 2022, 8:58 PM
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Rock Defender [53]
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110%er [5650]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 6, 2022, 7:27 AM
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Yeah, this makes a lot of sense!
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Hall of Famer [23991]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 6, 2022, 7:47 AM
[ in reply to Re: this chart is going to upset some people ] |
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It's a chart that shows the difference between Inflation protected government bonds and regular government bonds. It gives you some idea of debt investor sentiment.
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All-TigerNet [10843]
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All-TigerNet [13030]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 9:17 PM
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lol, those that “predicted” doom and gloom…were right.
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110%er [8952]
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Re: this chart is going to upset some people
Jul 5, 2022, 9:21 PM
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consumer spending is down
"Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, gained 0.2% in May, the smallest rise in five months. Data for April was revised down to show outlays increasing 0.6% instead of 0.9% as previously reported."
https://news.yahoo.com/u-consumer-spending-underlying-inflation-124738012.htmlhttps://media.zenfs.com/en/reuters.com/9b65e92a8ea5c7bd3147369c5ed19b1d"> U.S. consumer spending, underlying inflation slow in May U.S. consumer spending rose less than expected in May as motor vehicles remained scarce while higher prices forced cutbacks on purchases of other goods, another sign that the rebound in economic growth early in the second quarter was losing steam. Though the report from the Commerce Department on Thursday suggested inflation had probably peaked, price pressures remained strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve on its aggressive monetary policy tightening path. Rising interest rates and tight financial conditions are stoking fears of a recession, but economic data so far point to moderate growth.
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Hall of Famer [21891]
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Just want to plug in here and say
Jul 6, 2022, 8:22 AM
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thanks for posting an actual chart, and not some stupid opinion piece from some ####### on the talking box. TU for that.
Next time post the link so we can play around with it w/out having to search for it
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