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YOUR BALANCE
this chart is going to upset some people
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this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 7:11 PM

especially those who have predicted nothing but doom and gloom for the last six months...... as they sharpen their steely knives.

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Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 7:31 PM

Wow, they were really off in March. I'm thinking inflation is not going to be the problem in a couple years

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

You may have been the one to mention this


Jul 5, 2022, 8:30 PM

But the Fed's decision to spike rates to check inflation even at the risk of chilling spending was the right move.

2024 purple level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

drunk at the putt putt.


Re: You may have been the one to mention this


Jul 5, 2022, 8:56 PM

Funny thing is, Jerome Powell's initial response was to cut wages to slow inflation, but he has no influence on the free market, just the money supply.

https://mronline.org/2022/05/26/u-s-federal-reserve-says-its-goal-is-to-get-wages-down/


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From a pure Economics, inflation focused perspective


Jul 6, 2022, 7:57 AM

you could argue we were very fortunate that wages didn't take off as quickly, or as drastically, as the inflation metrics. At that point, it would've gotten out of control and very difficult to contain.

Like my boy Zoltan said...



...lowering asset prices was the only card the Fed had left to play to attempt to control wages and in turn, attempt to lower inflation. The FOMC even said as much in May and June minutes, pointing out the fact that the labor market has plenty of room to fall (so to say) as they battle inflation.

I'm not convinced we'll have the soft landing JPow and his gang are shooting for...hopeful, but don't see it happening.

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Re: From a pure Economics, inflation focused perspective


Jul 6, 2022, 3:40 PM

Serious question: Have we ever had a “soft landing” after a protracted economic growth period? Especially one where all sorts of assets shot up at the end like hockey sticks??

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Re: You may have been the one to mention this


Jul 6, 2022, 7:11 AM [ in reply to You may have been the one to mention this ]

I don't think they have a choice. We're going to experience a free money hangover. I know Tiggity will disagree, and I respect his opinion, but this seems like more of a normal business cycle than what we have seen over the past couple of decades.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

It was the right decision


Jul 6, 2022, 7:51 AM [ in reply to You may have been the one to mention this ]

but it was about a year too late. They were too busy pushing the transitory narrative, and prepping to pass another $3T spending bill.

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Re: It was the right decision


Jul 6, 2022, 8:13 AM

What do you think? Time to put on my Monopoly hat, light up a cigar, belt out an evil banker laugh, and drop oil? Call it a run? Or too soon?

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Don't take my advice


Jul 6, 2022, 8:19 AM

I got out of oil in April b/c I'm an idiot haha

I will say, the rollover in commodities yesterday is leading many to believe the recession trade is on.

Nothing wrong with taking some profits (ever) and putting a re-entry target back out there.

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Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 8:18 PM

Back on a Bull run?

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 8:27 PM

Lol, no.

We won’t have a bull run again until Boomers exit the stage.

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Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 8:37 PM

I have to admit I have never seen a 5-year break even inflation chart. What is this telling me?

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Nada***


Jul 5, 2022, 8:58 PM



2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 9:54 PM [ in reply to Re: this chart is going to upset some people ]



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Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 6, 2022, 7:27 AM

Yeah, this makes a lot of sense!

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Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 6, 2022, 7:47 AM [ in reply to Re: this chart is going to upset some people ]

It's a chart that shows the difference between Inflation protected government bonds and regular government bonds. It gives you some idea of debt investor sentiment.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 9:17 PM

Looks good when food and energy isn't counted. It's hi-lited in purple.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coreinflation.asp#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways,too%20volatile%20or%20fluctuate%20wildly
.

2024 white level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 9:17 PM

lol, those that “predicted” doom and gloom…were right.

military_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: this chart is going to upset some people


Jul 5, 2022, 9:21 PM

consumer spending is down

"Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, gained 0.2% in May, the smallest rise in five months. Data for April was revised down to show outlays increasing 0.6% instead of 0.9% as previously reported."

https://news.yahoo.com/u-consumer-spending-underlying-inflation-124738012.html
https://media.zenfs.com/en/reuters.com/9b65e92a8ea5c7bd3147369c5ed19b1d">


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Just want to plug in here and say


Jul 6, 2022, 8:22 AM

thanks for posting an actual chart, and not some stupid opinion piece from some ####### on the talking box. TU for that.

Next time post the link so we can play around with it w/out having to search for it :)

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