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Orange Blooded [2624]
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Nate Silver's poll is up related to Harris/Trump....
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Jul 30, 2024, 1:53 PM
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He took a week off to re-calibrate, and now has an update. He thinks she's in better shape than Biden by a long shot. And he thinks she will likely win the popular vote. But he has her at around a 38-39% chance of winning the electoral college.
Still very early, but it appears that Biden dropping out and moving to Harris has helped the Dems.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college
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110%er [7415]
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There's definitely a bump.
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Jul 30, 2024, 1:58 PM
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But national polls don't really mean anything and she's still not doing great in the states that matter.
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Orange Blooded [2624]
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Yeah and if you read the link, you'll see him talk about national vs EC...
Jul 30, 2024, 2:08 PM
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I'm curious what happens to his polling once she picks a VP.
VP picks can help in their state of origin. For example, Shapiro might help deliver the all-important Pennsylvania 19 EC votes.
Silver is one of the best polling modelers out there. He basically nailed the Biden win, and he gave Trump a good shot of winning even in 2016, when it was a big upset.
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Hall of Famer [23150]
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Two things that have surprised me about her campaign:
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Jul 30, 2024, 3:55 PM
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1) She's a much better communicator than I remembered from her Presidential campaign. So far, she seems much better than Trump at articulating her messages effectively.
2) Her communications team has been very effective as well at crafting themes and her messages concisely, attacking quickly in response to Trump and Vance missteps and they are not afraid to attack Trump with snark. Her initial speech announcing her candidacy was excellent and her statement on the Israel/Gaza was pitch perfect.
They've done a great job of quickly defining JD Vance negatively before Trump's team can figure out how to react to the point where Trump may have to replace him on the ticket.
She and her team our out-hustling and out-performing Trump and his team and keeping them on their heels so far.
As for the VP spot, she has some great options in Whitmer, Shapiro and fighter pilot astronaut and border state senator Captain Mark Kelly, the child of 2 cops. Having said that, is there a more calm nimble political athlete than Pete Buttigieg? I'm leaning towards Pete.
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All-In [27936]
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I thought cops were bad. Daggone long term memory.***
Jul 30, 2024, 4:07 PM
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Orange Blooded [2624]
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Well, it's been a while since the Dems have had a candidate like Kamala....
Jul 30, 2024, 7:07 AM
[ in reply to Two things that have surprised me about her campaign: ] |
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Hillary brought a bunch of baggage. Biden brought his age issues.
Kamala is like going back to 2008 and 2012, all over again. I obviously don't think she can do what Obama did in 2008. But she and her team are very energetic, and she's a very good speaker.
Also, for the first time, Trump is the old guy. He will have to wear that age on his shoulders like the heavy weight that it is....And he will represent the Past, while she represents the Future.
Keep in mind that both candidates represent big government. It's just a choice between which type of big government you want. And I think Kamala's version will beat Trump's version.
As the difference in these candidates sink in, I think the race will gradually move to Kamala.
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Oculus Spirit [84444]
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Meh.
Jul 30, 2024, 7:47 PM
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America doesn't want a woman president. They haven't and have proved it many different ways.
She has a pretty bad reputation of simply being kinda dumb to overcome.
For as many people that don't want Trump president, there are prob just as many that don't want her president, either.
My guess is the write-in candidates score big this time, or there will just be low voter turnout. The latter is my strategy. Again.
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Orange Blooded [2624]
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It's possible that you're right, of course....
Jul 30, 2024, 8:29 PM
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I will say that Democrats are much more excited than anything I've seen since Obama.
There was no excitement with Hillary or Joe. Kamala is generating something I haven't seen on the left in a very long time.
But yeah, the "we don't want a woman" thing is a big thing. And MAGA is entrenched in ways that it wasn't in 2016 and 2020. So, I probably shouldn't be in the prediction business this early. Let's watch it play out. We'll probably have a good idea by early October where things are headed.
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Hall of Famer [21039]
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Re: Well, it's been a while since the Dems have had a candidate like Kamala....
Jul 31, 2024, 9:26 AM
[ in reply to Well, it's been a while since the Dems have had a candidate like Kamala.... ] |
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I think she wins going away as long as she's not a moron and dumps some plan for Racial Reparations on the public or go prancing around in a Hamas headscarf while calling for Death To All Zionists or some such.
Trump just keeps doubling and tripling and quadrupling down on his base. And the middle lane is wide open. All Kamala has to do is drive through it.
There is an average of a 6-point shift from where the polls are now to where they are by election day. Until election season really kicks off, nobody's really tuned in. Also, the VP selection is going to matter a whole lot more this time around. The assassination attempt on Donald and watching Joe Biden hit a wall has really driven home the notion that VP selection does actually really matter.
Trump stuck himself with JD Vance, and he's the gift that's going to keep right on giving. I personally think Kamala's down to Shapiro or Mayor Pete, and I think it's a coin flip. Either makes Vance look like a complete a$$clown in comparison. Shapiro does bring Pennsylvania, but Mayor Pete is the Democrat Party's best communicator and he has a definite fan base and the most compelling backstory. I thought Manchin might somehow force his way in but that fizzled almost before it began. I also thought Adam Kinzinger might be another possibility but that hasn't even been mentioned.
IMHO, it won't be any of the Senators they're talking about, or Andy Beshear. They will not put another Senate seat in play in a swing state, and there's almost zero chance Beshear could deliver Kentucky.
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All-In [26871]
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Race doesn't start until she's formally declared the nominee... No more switchin
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Jul 31, 2024, 1:07 PM
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Then you'll see the barrage of snippet videos of all of her past statements and opinions on the issues...
And then it's too late. The annulment period is over.
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All-TigerNet [14959]
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She's been awesome at Czaring.***
Jul 30, 2024, 2:10 PM
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All-In [46451]
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It absolutely has.
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Jul 30, 2024, 8:39 PM
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The question is, what are people basing their supposed decision on?
That she isn’t Biden?
That she isn’t Trump?
That she’s new?
That she is a minority?
That she’s a female?
We all knew that this bump was likely. I’m not convinced the enthusiasm will continue once moderates and independents dig into her record more and are exposed to her speeches and personality more.
There is a reason why she gained zero traction when she ran for president in 2020. She simply isn’t likable. AND she is far left. She’s changed her stance on many issues since then, such as ICE, single payer healthcare, and defund the police. She will ultimately have to answer for her flip-flopping.
Oh, and she will also have to answer for many of the current issues that plagued her term as VP. Much of the disdain for Biden relates to key metrics like the economy, inflation, the border, etc. Kamala owns that and will have to convince the intelligent undecided voters that she wishes they had done things differently AND that she has a good plan to fix it.
At some point, Kamala will have to win on substance rather than just on criticism of Trump and Vance. I’m not convinced she can do it, even with the media’s help.
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All-In [26871]
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Solid take.***
Jul 31, 2024, 1:08 PM
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1st Rounder [661]
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Almost all politicians have flip flopped, including
Jul 31, 2024, 1:15 PM
[ in reply to It absolutely has. ] |
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her opponent.
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All-In [26871]
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On almost everything of substance...? Nah, her recent makeover is desperation.***
Jul 31, 2024, 1:18 PM
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1st Rounder [661]
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Well yes, Democrats were in a desperate situation.
Jul 31, 2024, 1:32 PM
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And it’s overall a positive, if she were to win, to govern closer towards the middle.
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All-In [26871]
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You mean BSing to win... There's years of video that show different.***
Jul 31, 2024, 5:33 PM
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Orange Blooded [2624]
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A few nits to pick....
Jul 31, 2024, 2:01 PM
[ in reply to It absolutely has. ] |
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>>At some point, Kamala will have to win on substance rather than just on criticism of Trump and Vance.
It is entirely susbstantive to criticize Trump/Vance's records and statements. That's part of winning of substance.
>>She will ultimately have to answer for her flip-flopping.
I think flip-flopping isn't that big of an issue anymore. It's known that people run toward their base during a primary and then run toward the middle during a general. And even if flip-flops are a big issue, Trump will have just as much to answer for as Kamala.
>>There is a reason why she gained zero traction when she ran for president in 2020. She simply isn’t likable.
Well, that was early in the Dem primaries, before people really knew much about her. She was never really battle-tested in 2020, as she was long gone before the Dems even narrowed it down to Biden & Bernie. We never got to test her in that race with independents and republicans....until she became the VP pick. And she didn't hurt Joe's ticket. Currently, there is a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala amongst Democrats of all stripes.
I don't think your skepticism is entirely mis-placed. But I don't fully agree with you either.
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Orange Blooded [4795]
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The old 2% I dont have jello for a brain bump***
Jul 31, 2024, 4:35 PM
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