I'll leave this here. The real question is...how long does it take the first one to go through that door and land in the Dems' party?
Because the second it happens the GOP breaks in half, and a third to half their membership ends up with the Dems.
Which would also, by the way, give the Dems the license they need to eject the Wokism/Defund the Police crap from their party that's currently dragging it down, because they don't need the votes of AOC and The Squad anymore.
This kinda feels like something that's building up.
I wish there were a viable 3rd party, but I do not see any center right Republican leaving the party to join the Democratic party. There's barely room for Manchin as it is. At some point, I could see a 3rd party way arising out of the GOP, but no exodus from the GOP to the Dems.
Most Dems are much too far to the left for me at this point. There are some real nuts in the House - some good people too, but a lot of nuts. I enjoy watching Senate hearings, but I can't watch the children in the House.
And the Dems are losing center left, so we end up with a sane rational middle composed of both GOP and left, and then two radical nutcase extreme parties. Unfortunately the two parties hold the money and the power, leaving the sane rational middle rudderless.
To be sure - the GOP is going through a realignment but that happens from time to time in all political parties. The reason for the GOP realignment is because that is what the Republican voters want. For the average conservative voting public, the band-aid got ripped off over the last 5 years when the establishment/intellectual GOP class who have controlled the Republican party since Reagan were finally forced to live up to their conservative campaign rhetoric and failed miserably.
Traditional Republican voters have grown fed up with the globalist Republican elites (Bush family, Lincoln Project/Bulwark insider DC intellectuals, and others of their ilk) who talk about conservatism but do nothing but grow the Federal Government and turn into "Democrat lite" when in power. For sure there may be some Kitzenger types that switch to the Democratic party but they also won't survive their next election in their Republican districts. The era of world police/pay for everything foreign policy and the Chamber of Commerce/Corporate globalism economics form of Republicanism is coming to an end.
So no... the GOP is not going to split into two entities but instead the Bush\Rockefeller Republican types will either become the minority voice in the Party (kind of like Manchin in the Democratic Party), switch sides as you suggest, or be primaried out of office. The one thing you shouldn't believe is that there is some massive population of GOP voters who want a Bush type Republicanism that the GOP is moving away from - trust me there is no desire among the majority of Republican voters for that.
It is my belief that the Democratic party has already gone through a realignment as the Bill Clinton Democratic Party of the 90's has finally died. What has taken its place is a more radical Democratic Party that Obama brought to town with his "fundamental transformation of America" vision that for a time was still being restrained by some of the liberal Clinton Democratic Party power brokers.
However the Democratic liberals who used to restrain their radical wing has all but disappeared. For years the Democratic party played with the socialist rabid puppy wing of their constituency - giving them minor policy wins and lip service to garner their votes. Unfortunately that rabid puppy has grown into to a full sized wolf and is eating the guts out of the Democratic party and has established its insane dominance over most Democratic party policy. I wrote this prior to the 2020 election but think it illustrates my point:
"I always find it funny when Democrats say "Bernie Sanders is not a 'real' Democrat". The only people who say that are Democrats that are in denial of what the current Democratic Party has become. Bernie Sanders is a Marxist who has caucused with the Democratic party since he went to Washington in 1991 - going on 30 years. It's rather informing how a Marxist always seemed to find that the Democratic Party had enough in common with his beliefs that he would caucus with them. Bernie was a registered Democrat from 2015-2016 and has been a registered Democrat since 2019. I'll concede that Bernie probably registered as a Democrat simply to be eligible for the Democratic Party nomination for President. But if Bernie Sanders is not a 'real' Democrat then why are there such significant numbers of Democrats who have voted for him in both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries? If Bernie is not a 'real' Democrat then why do so many in the Democratic Party support his cleverly messaged Marxist ideology - why else would they vote for him? Why is Joe Biden participating in this "Unity Task Force" with Bernie Sanders if Bernie isn't a leading voice determining 'real' Democratic Party policy positions? If you answer these questions honestly, I think it is quite clear that Bernie Sanders and his disciples (AOC, Omar, Talib etc...) ARE the 'real' 2020 Democratic Party."
Since I wrote this, Bernie Sanders was given a leading role in Democratic Party Policy and the extremely influential position as the Chairmen of the Senate Budget Committee. In truth Sanders basically wrote this "Build Back Better" socialist monstrosity that is the Democratic Party's signature legislative goal for this cycle.
Liberals will not take back the Democratic Party by simply having globalist/RINO Republicans defect the GOP and joining the Democratic party. Instead, it is the Democratic voters who will have to do that. Sadly, I believe the Democratic Party is a reflection of Democratic voters which seem to have a significant socialist/Marxist bend. What I fear is that those liberal Democratic voters don't exist in sufficient numbers anymore thanks to a US education system that has been churning out two generations of leftist indoctrination that is reinforced by just about every MSM outlet, the entertainment industry and big tech.
Man, it’s all partisan politics…it’s all we have these days. They all suck. One side does something and the other acts horrified…left/right commentators fuel the fire. Instead of folks on both sides walking to the middle, shaking hands and doing the work of the country, they run to their corners and throw rocks at each other. It’s childish and is going to rip the country apart.
I would argue both sides need more Cheneys, kinzingers, and Manchins. More people actually voting their conscience instead of toeing the party line. American first…pub/dem second. I know that’s naive…
The Dem Big Tent is a squabbling coalition of dysfunctional identity-politics groups and about three different ideologies - about to be four, once the center-right gets run out of the GOP - all put under one roof, their discussions look like food fights in a school cafeteria. "Incoherent" is putting it mildly. You've got AOC and her "Squad" of Baby Bolsheviks along with Bernie on the far left; they're outright Socialists, you've got a generally well-meaning contingent of center-left liberals whose main deficiency isn't intent (they generally have good ones) but their ability to do math (Oh My do they like to spend money), and then you've got these tight-fisted, hard-eyed centrist business politicians like Sinema and Manchin (who usually hail from competitive states or districts) who do hard math, get in bed with every big K-Street player they can, and aren't "Dems" so much as whatever-works pragmatists who in years prior could have passed as Lite Republicans.
If Cheney gets run out of the GOP, she's not going to just vanish. She's got a pocket full of some of the most impressive markers in Washington, she's an entity unto herself that in political terms only true Big Dogs like Mitch, Nancy, Jim Clyburn, and a handful of others can match. She's freaking D!ck Cheney's daughter, for cryin' out loud, and whether those ignorant of politics realize it (or like it!) or not, she's Washington royalty, as insidery a power-broker as there is, she's not just going to go away and the GOP are idiots for trying. She's going to wind up breaking a bunch of them. Kinzinger, too, has built an impressive political brand, and he's got major power-players still pouring money into his coffers despite the fact that he's basically getting zoned out of Illinois in redistricting.
If it turns out there's no place in the GOP for these two - and it appears there isn't - they're inevitably going to re-appear with the Dems, and then the question becomes: how many current members of the GOP would really like to be with them and would be if there was a caucus in the Democratic Party for them, and are now just playing a role because they fear being primaried?
That's the problem with being reductive. And that's all on this Cult of Personality the GOP has built around following Trump and his toxic brand of authoritarian, truth-free stupid, where you've gotta agree with everything the Mango Mussolini says and does regardless of how ridiculous it is.
Cheney, if she were to decide to join the Democratic party, would have to move back to Virginia or some like minded state to run for office. Jesus Christ himself would not fare well running as a Democrat in WY.Ok, he probably he could pull it off, but no one else could.
Cheney running as a Democrat in WY would be destroyed. Running as a Democrat elsewhere say in Virginia would require a strong conservative to prevail in a Democratic primary. A strong conservative is not exactly a winning proposition in the Democratic primary.
She may leave the GOP like Jeff Flake, but she's done politically if she does. She may be done anyway which in my opinion would be unfortunate.
She may be done anyway which in my opinion would be unfortunate.
Why in the world would it be unfortunate to finally get rid of a family of career politicians who have been in DC so long that they have no real connection to average Americans?
IMO the career political class that continually enrich themselves in "public service" IS the problem in our country. The more of these political elites we can put out to pasture the better - irregardless of their party affiliation.
Politics is like an iceberg. Ninety per cent of it is behind the scenes and it's all about the money.
And here's the key quote in this article, IMHO: "Anyone who thinks there's a different path for higher office in a Republican primary other than the Trump platform is delusional."
And yet...gobs of money. Hmmm. Cheney will be fine. Kinzinger seems like a fair bet to muscle in on either Tammy Duckworth in the Senate or JB Pritzker for governor of Illinois...and he clearly isn't going to be doing it as a Republican.
Actually you're right. His entire platform is "standing up to the Dems who are destroying our country". He has no other platform, didn't even advance a platform at the RNC, in fact, for the first time ever. Just: more Trump. "The Best Is Yet To Come!"
And yeah, a lot of the Dem policies and agenda is dumb. Won't argue. But the problem is they have an agenda and policies they are pursuing, they are trying to get things for their constituents.
The GOP isn't. They offer only blind opposition, more Trump, more rage. That isn't a path that leads anywhere America wants to go...and ultimately it offers its constituents nothing concrete in return beyond blind opposition to people they've been taught to demonize and despise.
America isn't a zero-sum system. We grow together, or not at all. And blindly adversarial politics might destroy America, but they're not ever going to get anything positive for the people who make the mistake of following it.
Squeezing out and silencing the middle who doesn't want to set fire to the works and blindly follow a vulgarian populist moron like Trump is not the way forward, and whichever party realizes that first is going to win an unassailable majority for the next 10+ years. I honestly figured it would be a post-Trump GOP, coming back to sanity after the party collectively realized: "Whoops, not this way, we're losing the middle here." And the Dems, with their Wokism and sluggish leadership, have been real slow to scoop that low-hanging fruit up. But with the Dems staring absolute cataclysm in the mid-terms in the face, they're starting to realize: hey, less Woke, more middle...and the center-right needs a landing pad.
There is, like I said, an obvious alliance there to be had there.
You think Jeff Flake is done permanently? Mark Stanford? Paul Ryan? Anthony Gonzalez? Jim Boehner? A dozen others who quietly slid out the backdoor rather than challenge Trump or Trumpism directly, like Chris Christie?
The number of folks who constitute those unbowing Reagan-era Republicans isn't a party, yet - but it sure looks like a caucus, and IMHO if you assume the right is composed of the far-right and right, they control the biggest and certainly the wealthiest number of votes in America, those of the center-right. That caucus has almost completely been ejected from the GOP. They're in limbo right now...but there's an obvious alliance that can happen. We watch it happen on CNN every day when we see who's voting for what.
Just one problem with that. That's the GOP's brain, and it's certainly their bankbook. Those center-right, fiscally conscious, personally moderate business politics may not be fiery enough to get the base all excited-like on Fox or OAN but they're tactical, they're smart, they're loaded with dollars and dark money supporters, and oh, yeah, they're acceptable to middle America.
Big political shifts happen in politics from time to time. I agree we're in the process of seeing one now...and I don't think it's the case at all that the center-right (which again represents probably the biggest chunk of voters and certainly the wealthiest) is going to just go away quietly and sit in a corner because MAGA told them to.
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