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Lumber costs plummeting
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Lumber costs plummeting


Jun 15, 2021, 7:13 PM

Commodities traders getting pinched hard. Still high, but points scored for the little guys.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lumber-prices-are-falling-fast-turning-hoarders-into-sellers-11623749401?mod=mhp

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

I have no sympathy for anybody that got caught


Jun 15, 2021, 8:31 PM

holding the bag on this deal.

From what I've seen, it will take a couple of months to see the price go down at the stores. We will see if that is correct with such a huge drop in price.

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Kinda like those gas prices that didn't go back down


Jun 16, 2021, 10:18 AM

once the pipeline was back up and running? Went up 50 cents overnight and stayed there three weeks later.

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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Thanks alot Biden.


Jun 16, 2021, 10:21 AM

I paid $2.47/gal earlier this week, I think. Seems about right for summer time and travel time.

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I'm still waiting for Fedex and UPS to lower their prices


Jun 16, 2021, 10:32 AM [ in reply to Kinda like those gas prices that didn't go back down ]

from when gas went up in 2005, and they added a fuel surcharge.

Or for the LP gas trade in folks to actually start putting at least 4 gallons of LP in their tanks again. When gas went up in 2005, the dropped it down to about 3-3.5 gallons, but charged the same amount.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Kinda, but not exactly.


Jun 16, 2021, 10:43 AM [ in reply to Kinda like those gas prices that didn't go back down ]

Seems over the past 3 years or so gas prices have reacted pretty quickly with changes in oil, but up and down.

I got a good chuckle out of a meme the other day where somebody was all happy that Trump has gasoline down to like $1.35/gallon last June, Totally ignoring that global demand had cratered right after the Russia Vs. Saudi's thing that caused the contracts to go negative.

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look at the timing of that and the annual trend


Jun 16, 2021, 11:14 AM [ in reply to Kinda like those gas prices that didn't go back down ]

of gas prices. Always goes up in the summer.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Re: Lumber costs plummeting


Jun 16, 2021, 10:36 AM

Hoping this will be the first of many commodities to blink in the construction industry.

Wood, Metal, Gypsum....everything is stupid right now.

Metal framing has tripled since the start of the year. Gypsum is currently being forecast 3X the price that we began this year.

I work with vendors who will no longer quote material pricing past 30 days.

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Now if we can have another mass unemployment


Jun 16, 2021, 10:46 AM

(I mean as long as I still have a job), maybe we can get housing prices back to something resembling normal.

I'm 0 for 5 on bids on houses this year, with 2 well above asking price. I went looking through VRBO this last week, and 2/5 of those houses I tried to buy are rentals now.

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I am still not understanding why the asking prices haven't


Jun 16, 2021, 10:48 AM

reacted in line. Is this some circle jerk by Realtors to try and show they do something to help price?

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People get desperate and go high


Jun 16, 2021, 11:01 AM

We started looking at homes in late April and every single home we have seen or been interested in has gone under contract the same weekend it started showings (or before it went on the market). What im seeing is that not a single home we have looked at has actually sold. Both homes we have lost out on have had rent back agreements as part of the contract. So people are doing one of 2 things: 1. they are selling their home when the market is hot without owning a new home yet. So they are building in a few months to find the house. 2. The new house they have bought also has a rent back policy built into the contract.

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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


There are a few reasons, at least as far as I can figure.


Jun 16, 2021, 11:03 AM [ in reply to I am still not understanding why the asking prices haven't ]

At least in the 29464 market.

1) Not sure who is left in New Jersey and New York, but a lot of them are doing WTH I would have done decades ago, and gotten the eff outta there and moved here. And yes, then they want here to be just like they left. They are buying houses over the phone, with a realtor doing a Facetime a walk around. I've seen it several times.

2) There a lot of cash offers on houses which means no inspection and no appraisal required. Usually, these are above asking prices as well. 3/5 houses I bid on, I was out bid by an all cash, above asking offer. I have to think they are showing the cash just to buy the house, then financing after the sale. Borrowing money at 3-3.5% is cheap compared to what they could be making in the stock market.

3) Groups of small investors are tying up every available house on the market using a due diligence clause. If a house comes on the market, they put in a full price (or higher) offer on day 1. If they feel they can make money on renting it, they keep it, then the back out of the other houses using a due diligence, but someone else (perhaps another investor group) picks those houses up. I've heard there are several investor groups doing this. There are 4 houses right now for sale in the old village/old Mt Pleasant (west of Coleman to the water) that are < $1 million. 1 is a tear down, and another is about the size of a small garage. I have to admit I don't completely understand how this scheme works, but I know rent has gone up since last year around here. The house I'm renting now would be at least 30% higher now than a year ago. Most similar sized houses anywhere in Mt Pleasant now rent for more than the one I'm in.

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Every airbnb I've seen is owned by an ownership group...


Jun 16, 2021, 12:13 PM

it seems like.

2024 purple level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-fordprefect.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

In answer to 2, a cash offer doesn't necessarily mean they


Jun 16, 2021, 1:45 PM [ in reply to There are a few reasons, at least as far as I can figure. ]

end up paying in cash, it just means that the deal will not fall through due to financing.

But also, super wealthy people don't borrow money the same way normal people do. Most have a standing LOC at a bank based on assets or can get a quick turnaround and finance through their investments, IE get a loan against your account at Goldman and pay interest to yourself.

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Re: I am still not understanding why the asking prices haven't


Jun 16, 2021, 11:06 AM [ in reply to I am still not understanding why the asking prices haven't ]

A home selling in a day over asking price means it wasn’t priced high enough. Realtors are disincentivized to price houses high- the quicker it sells, the quicker they see that $$$ money fo nothin. The difference in their 3% between $500,000 and $550,000 isn’t enough to make them want to price it higher and risk it sitting around.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

It makes me angry that those types are getting


Jun 16, 2021, 11:09 AM

rich out of luck, not because they've have gotten any better at their job.

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If anything, this boom has made them lazier, and worse at


Jun 16, 2021, 11:12 AM

their jobs, for the selling realtors anyway.

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Selling realtors suck


Jun 16, 2021, 11:18 AM

They just sit back and post photos to MLS and rake in the offers. One realtor advertised on social media that he had five homes coming in a neighborhood that we are interested in. He would only tell us one of the homes. The reason? He didn't want to bring other realtors into the fold to split commission and wanted us to use him as our buying agent.

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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Thats pretty messed up and probably against their


Jun 16, 2021, 11:20 AM

"professional ethics" they all love to brag about.

I'd bet He'd be the first one to complain when someone kept him out of the loop though.

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Yep


Jun 16, 2021, 11:24 AM

Left and right, selling realtors are getting shadier. Now that COVID is basically over, overlapping showings are allowed again its basically an open house from 8am until 5pm. One house we went to the other day had five showings at the same time. We loved the house, but didn't even put in an offer because it would probably go for $100k over ask, no question.

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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Yeah the overlapping showings thing is a PIA.


Jun 16, 2021, 11:31 AM

The latest one I put an offer on there were 2 showings at once. It seemed one woman who was alone with her realtor was following me and my realtor around just to hear what we were saying.

So everywhere I went in the house or back yard I'd point at something and go "Did you see all that rot?" or "Is that termites?"

I'm always looking, but I think I'm backing out of this market for a bit.

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Realtors aint getting rich right now.


Jun 16, 2021, 11:28 AM [ in reply to It makes me angry that those types are getting ]

Not on the whole. Supply is down, demand is high, and so yes prices have gone up. That doesn't necessarily mean transactions are abnormal.

Those doing well right now are doing so BECAUSE they are good at their job. Good enough to have survived last year. Good enough to get repeat business. Good enough to survive working FAR MORE for buyers than they have.

If it's rich by luck, why isn't everyone doing it?

Poor realtors don't survive in ANY market.

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Ya know, this is a fair assessment.


Jun 16, 2021, 1:32 PM

I'll rephrase, I jealous some yahoo is getting paid more just because people are willing to get into bidding wars.

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Understood, but it actually works both ways and probably


Jun 16, 2021, 2:17 PM

nets out evenly.

Let's assume a realtor represents buyers and sellers on an equal number of transactions annually.

Yes, on the whole they are making more when representing sellers....because sellers are getting more for their home.

When representing buyers though, it is costing them far more in time and expenses.

Kinda the same question I would guess....why would someone be a realtor in SC when they could be one in CA where home prices are triple or more on average? Welp, cost of living is far higher so it all probably washes out in the end.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Also, you need to be a Realtor in places that you know with


Jun 16, 2021, 3:00 PM

people that you know. I did in fact have my provisional license many years ago. Tried to go at it part time. I had a some married friends that were looking to buy just as I got to the point of being able to get into houses, but they picked somebody else so they didn't have to worry about being mad at me over something.

I didn't know anybody wanting to list.

I couldn't afford to quit my real job and didn't have time to properly do the RA thing, so I failed quickly.

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Which brings me to something I've noticed with realtors


Jun 16, 2021, 1:41 PM [ in reply to Realtors aint getting rich right now. ]

I've ran into a few people here in Charleston who said they are leaving their job to get their real estate license. I guess because they think this is the time to strike?

Finding a realtor in Charleston is like finding a crack dealer outside Williams Brice stadium. Just announce it loud enough. In fact, post on Facebook that you're either buying or selling in the Charleston area, and 20 of your friends will reply, "You need a realtor?! I know a good realtor! Maybe I'm a realtor! You already said you had a realtor in your post but DO YOU NEED A REALTOR?!"

I don't get how anyone breaking into the profession down here or in other hot spots of SC hopes to make it.

Is this another bubble that's gonna burst? All these realtors who can't actually get clients?

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

[Catahoula] used to be almost solely a PnR rascal, but now has adopted shidpoasting with a passion. -bengaline

You are the meme master. - RPMcMurphy®

Trump is not a phony. - RememberTheDanny


Everyone is a realtor in CHS


Jun 16, 2021, 2:17 PM

Especially now. Contrary to what Tharealdonjuan, there are a lot of stupid ones who have no idea what they are doing.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Oh no, I totally agree with that. What I'm saying is that


Jun 16, 2021, 2:20 PM

they won't last. Bruh only like maybe 1 in 20 realtors will EVER actually make $50k in a year. Failure rate is very high. It ain't like deals just show up....good realtors work very hard to establish relationships and to get in front of qualified buyers and sellers.

It gets far easier for them once they get established, but many never get established. Most in fact.

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I'd argue that NEXT year is going to be the year that is


Jun 16, 2021, 1:52 PM [ in reply to Realtors aint getting rich right now. ]

harder to make a living. Anyone could have jumped in the game in the past year and sold a house or two but inventory is crazy low and demand still super low. Realtors are trying to eat each other.

Also, the commission money gets eaten up really quickly with the broker's take, splits with other realtors and taxes.

For example the brokerage I works for takes a pretty high cut but realtors don't pay any of their own expenses. They don't make as much money off a $4M sale as you would think (it' ain't even close to half the commission on one side of the transaction). The money maker is the volume of $4M houses we sell.

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oops, demand is still super high***


Jun 16, 2021, 1:54 PM



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Re: oops, demand is still super high***


Jun 16, 2021, 2:02 PM

Article on front page of WSJ right now says we’re 6.8 million units short between 2010-2020. Lingering effects of ‘08. Smaller and medium sized builders like my pops got absolutely crushed by the changes in lending rules.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Close friend is a developer, literally cannot sell any


Jun 16, 2021, 2:04 PM

houses right now because they cannot build any more than they are already working on.

All these empty lots to sell and no one to build them.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Our current subdivision of about 90 houses has about 30 lots


Jun 16, 2021, 7:50 PM

left - builder cannot price a house right now - he has 10 under construction and cannot get windows to put in them.

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How is inventory crazy low if new and existing home sales is


Jun 16, 2021, 2:08 PM [ in reply to I'd argue that NEXT year is going to be the year that is ]

at an all-time high? Seems there is plenty of inventory, it just ain't sitting out there for 2 or 3 months.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Re: How is inventory crazy low if new and existing home sales is


Jun 16, 2021, 2:11 PM

Existing homes on the market in February were at 1.03 million, the lowest inventory since 1982. New housing starts finally starting heating up again in 2019-early 2020, but labor and material shortages and unpredictable building material costs have limited the pace.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Nope...there aren't near as many available homes to sell.***


Jun 16, 2021, 2:14 PM [ in reply to How is inventory crazy low if new and existing home sales is ]



badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Sales are at a high from a price stand point.


Jun 16, 2021, 2:14 PM [ in reply to How is inventory crazy low if new and existing home sales is ]

They aren't at a high from a number of units sold perspective. And I'm talking about the market in Greenville.

By inventory, we're talking the number of homes for sale. It's like half of what it was last year.

Just a supply/demand deal. Demand is far higher than supply, and that's mainly due to a) pent up post pandemic demand and b) folks moving here from elsewhere.

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and c)investors trying to make a buck***


Jun 16, 2021, 2:18 PM



badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

True, and that part I really don't understand.


Jun 16, 2021, 2:23 PM

Now ain't the time to be buying rental properties IMO. I don't think rental rates are directly following home prices, at least dollar for dollar. Home price goes up X, what you can rent it for goes up Y...and X is enough more than Y to not make sense.

At least this is in my unqualified, non home investing opinion. Could be wrong though.

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Rental rates, at least around here, have definietly followed


Jun 16, 2021, 2:29 PM

home prices.

Long term (>6 month rentals) are up at least 30% in < the last year, maybe more. Like I said earlier--houses in Mt Pleasant now command more than what I am renting for--on the island. If I were to rent the house I'm in now (if I could even get it) would cost 30-40% more than I am paying.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Yeah, I see, sales are up in $ not numbers


Jun 16, 2021, 2:19 PM [ in reply to Sales are at a high from a price stand point. ]

But the $ are up A LOT.

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We normally have 40-50 listings this time of year.


Jun 16, 2021, 3:11 PM [ in reply to How is inventory crazy low if new and existing home sales is ]

We have 2.

We sold everything already. Realtors have packed up and gone on vacation.

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Nah, not buying that.


Jun 16, 2021, 11:13 AM [ in reply to Re: I am still not understanding why the asking prices haven't ]

I mean, on a stand alone transaction I can see your point.

But consider a realtor that sells let's say 20 homes per year.

Using your example, $50k X 20 is $1mm. 3% is an extra $30k in income.

It adds up. Trust me, realtors ain't to blame in this situation. It's actually AWFUL for them. They are working 5x or more than they were when representing buyers....show, drive, show, drive, submit offer after offer after offer....and can't get they buyer into a home.

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You're correct here


Jun 16, 2021, 11:16 AM

On everything you have said.

My realtor was on the buyer and seller side of a $1M home sale a few weeks ago. Without that commission, he would be in a tough spot. Us on the other hand, we have seen about 20-25 homes in two and a half months. Hes earning every bit of his commission doing the driving. Hes lazy and slow when it comes to booking though, which has bit us a couple times.

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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Here's the secondary problem:


Jun 16, 2021, 1:40 PM

As soon as prices drop, demand will increase due to all of the people who have delayed purchasing due to price. Prices rise again.

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Re: Here's the secondary problem:


Jun 16, 2021, 1:46 PM

Raise hand GIFs - Get the best gif on GIFER

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

I like your funny words magic man


Not everyone can ponzi scheme as well as you can***


Jun 16, 2021, 1:57 PM



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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Can I interest you in our lord and savior


Jun 16, 2021, 4:15 PM

Mary Kay?

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I like your funny words magic man


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