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YOUR BALANCE
Strength of Schedule Myth
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Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 27, 2019, 7:22 PM

Everyone has probably heard all the “strength of schedule” talk ad nauseam. If you’re like me, you have probably grown weary of it all, and I’m sure that many, many fans just accept the myth of “strength of schedule” and “Clemson doesn’t play nobody” (they also said the same crap last year). ??????

Anyhow, below you will find the current overall records of the all of the current CFP Top Ten teams’ opponents through eleven games. The number in parentheses (beside the record) is the number of teams that particular Top Ten team has played with a current winning record through 11 games. The last number (in the { } type bracket) denotes the number of FCS opponents that Top Ten team has played. The numbers speak for themselves.

P.S. There might be a small error with some of the teams’ numbers because I did some of this about half asleep. However, I’d say the majority of it is fairly accurate within a game or two.

Ohio State: 67-54 (8) {0}
LSU: 62-60 (8) {1}
Clemson: 63-58 (7) {1}
Georgia : 68-54 (8) {1}
Alabama: 55-67 (4) {1}
Utah: 60-64 (7) {1}
Chokelahoma: 59-63 (5) {1}
Minnesota: 57-65 (5) {1}
Baylor: 60-62 (5) {1}
Penn State: 74-48 (7) {1}

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Re: Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 27, 2019, 7:49 PM

Good stuff! I don’t know the formula used by the CFP and/or referenced by ESPN but it appears to rely heavily on the ranking of the teams played. While that sounds good on the surface, for the majority of the season the rankings are artificially inflated based on how the team finished the prior season, their pedigree and the SEC bias.
Your methodology makes more sense.

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Re: Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 27, 2019, 8:20 PM

Thank you, sir.

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Hey hey now! No facts are allowed when ESPN is pushing a


Nov 27, 2019, 8:53 PM

narrative. Gets the SEC homers VERY upset!

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Good Stuff. Thanks!


Nov 27, 2019, 8:59 PM

Excellent post!

I have been saying it all season. It's insane how people just take the analyst word for things! The truth is: "did that tough SEC schedule help Alabama against Clemson"? No. It didn't. The myth that the strong conference teams strongest is better than everyone else was exposed in early January.

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Re: Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 28, 2019, 5:55 AM

Excellent

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Re: Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 28, 2019, 6:37 AM

There is no strength of schedule myth. We dont play anyone to get tested for people to know how good we are. Some other teams do.

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Re: Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 28, 2019, 8:04 AM

Really? “We don’t play anyone?” That is the most overused phrase in college football. Logic does not support it. Think about it: if Clemson plays such a wretched schedule, why don’t more P-5 teams go undefeated in the ACC or PAC-12, not to mention the non-P5 school conferences? I heard the same thing about last year’s team: “They haven’t played anyone. We really don’t know how good this team is. Well, they play in the ACC, so . . .” Heck, some were even saying that after Clemson beat Notre Dame 30-3 last year. Clemson finished 15-0.

I look at it this way: I am 41 years old, and I have been faithfully following college football since I was about 8 years old. Since that time (1986) there have only been 35 teams (in all of Division 1 football) to go undefeated in a season. Count with me below:

1986: Penn State (12-0, National Champions)
1987: Miami (12-0, National Champions) Syracuse (11-0-1, finished 4th)
1988: Notre Dame (12-0, National Champions)
1989: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (Miami 11-1, National Champions)
1990: GA Tech 11-0-1 (UPI National Champions)
1991: Miami (12-0, AP National Champions) Washington (12-0, UPI National Champions)
1992: Alabama (13-0, National Champions) Michigan 9-0-3 (Finished 5th)
1993: Auburn (11-0, On Probation) Florida State (12-1, National Champions)
1994: Nebraska (12-0, National Champions) Penn State (12-0, Finished 2nd) Texas A&M (10-0-1, finished 8th)
1995: Nebraska (12-0, National Champions)
1996: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (Florida 12-1, National Champions)
1997: Michigan (12-0, AP National Champions) Nebraska (13-0, UPI National Champions)
1998: Tennessee (13-0, BCS National Champion)
1999: Florida State (12-0, BCS National Champions)
2000: Oklahoma (13-0, BCS National Champions)
2001: Miami (12-0, BCS National Champions)
2002: Ohio State (14-0, BCS National Champions)
2003 NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (LSU 13-1, BCS National Champions) (USC 12-1, AP National Champions)
2004: USC (13-0, BCS National Champions) Auburn (12-0, finished AP 2nd) Utah (12-0, finished AP 4th)
2005: Texas (13-0, BCS National Champions)
2006: Boise State (13-0, finished 5th AP) (Florida 13-1, BCS National Champions)
2007: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (LSU, 12-2, BCS National Champions)
2008: Utah (13-0, finished 2nd AP) Florida (13-1, BCS National Champions)
2009: Alabama (14-0, BCS National Champions) Boise State (14-0, finished 4th AP)
2010: Auburn (14-0, BCS National Champions) TCU (13-0, finished 2nd AP)
2011: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (Alabama 13-1, BCS National Champions)
2012: Ohio State (12-0, on probation) Alabama (13-1, BCS National Champions)
2013: Florida State: (14-0, BCS National Champions)
2014: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (Ohio State 14-1, CFP National Champions)
2015: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (Alabama 14-1, CFP National Champions)
2016: NO ONE FINISHED UNDEFEATED (Clemson 14-1, CFP National Champions)
2017: UCF (13-0, Finished 6th AP) Alabama 13-1 (CFP National Champions)
2018: Clemson (15-0, CFP National Champions)

This averages out to roughly 1 undefeated team per year over a 33 year period. I don’t care what team it is, or what conference they play in, if a team finishes undefeated, they are VERY, VERY VERY good. Clemson is a VERY GOOD football team, regardless of who they have played.

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Re: Strength of Schedule Myth


Nov 28, 2019, 8:06 AM [ in reply to Re: Strength of Schedule Myth ]

I agree that it is not a myth, but I would be skeptical of most metrics. They rarely tell an accurate story. Most would consider playing a really good team and a really bad team about equivalent as playing 2 mediocre teams. Because of that many might actually have our strength of schedule overstated.

Many, also, will almost just ignore an FCS team as a data point. Since most P5 schools play 1 FCS school it generally comes out in the wash, but there are some oddballs that play none or 2 that could skew the figures.

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Very interesting data! Great job!***


Nov 28, 2019, 6:52 AM



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you act like winning records against the SEC don't mean


Nov 28, 2019, 7:15 AM

more than winning records against everyone else. Geez

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Re: you act like winning records against the SEC don't mean


Nov 28, 2019, 8:05 AM

Hahahaha. How true, sir. I stand corrected. Please extend my regrets to our SEC betters.

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