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Replies: 22
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110%er [5014]
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Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:02 AM
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Follow the logic,
• There are Roughly 1950 players in the transfer portal.
• There are 130 Division 1 football teams
• There are 19 Scholarships allowed per year (avg per school, max is 25 in a year)
• Assuming that approx. 75% of the incoming class will come from High School (adjust as you see
fit)
• That leaves 25% per school to dip on the portal. (19 x .25= 4.75)
• 130 Schools x 4.75 = 617.5 players can find a home.
• 1950 players in the pool – 617.50 from the pool = 1332.50 players that have now lost their
scholarship and have no where to go.
• Over a 5 year period 4 years plus a red shirt year that is 6662.50 players every 5 years walked
away from an opportunity to earn a degree and make the contacts for a strong career.
In summary, 1300 players per year on average have walked away from their scholarship expecting to land a better spot , but been left in the cold. BTW, I do not think that 130 teams will average adding 4.75 transfers per year. My n umbers are super conservative.
-Esso
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All-In [30766]
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per the 247 site ...kids who get a 0.8 rating or higher
Dec 15, 2021, 10:09 AM
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seem to get picked up pretty often.
I don't know if any 1 complains when a 2 star recruit transfers. How many of those 1300 players are above 0.8?
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110%er [5014]
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Re: per the 247 site ...kids who get a 0.8 rating or higher
Dec 15, 2021, 10:18 AM
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seem to get picked up pretty often.
I don't know if any 1 complains when a 2 star recruit transfers. How many of those 1300 players are above 0.8?
I am not sure how many are above .8. I do know that the there are a lot of kids giving up a chance of a lifetime to earn a degree. An opportunity that many of them would not have gotten if not for football scholarships because of the false prophets filling their heads with nonsense.
It would fix itself faster if they left the 1 year wait in place. That would balance out the impatience of youth to some degree.
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All-In [30766]
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agree .. didnt get bad until they removed the sit out rule
Dec 15, 2021, 10:50 AM
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for " COVID "
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All-TigerNet [10921]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:16 AM
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Agreed. And I think at some point people are going to realize there is little return in the NIL sponsorships. Call it what it is...an honest way to cheat (oxymoron). The cheaters will cheat and the sponsorships will return to more legitimate sources.
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Standout [335]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:17 AM
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Do your numbers account for normal attrition from players who just quit to career ending injuries etc? Not sure how big those numbers are and how much effect they would have.
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110%er [5014]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:20 AM
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Do your numbers account for normal attrition from players who just quit to career ending injuries etc? Not sure how big those numbers are and how much effect they would have.
That is why I used the 5 year average number of scholarships available on average per school. That "bakes" the normal attrition into the math.
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All-American [587]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:20 AM
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Your nomenclature, and thus numbers, are off.
There are 130 FBS teams, not Division 1. There are 129 FBS teams and 125 FCS teams. So 284.
Also, only ~78% of football scholarship athletes graduate, so you're making huge assumptions that the transfer portal is suddenly preventing them from obtaining any kind of a degree that they were guaranteed to get anyway.
Point is, transfer portal isn't going away anytime soon. Coaches can move to any school they want without having to sitout, so why would we make 18 year old kids do it?
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:54 AM
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You’re missing this point. OP is not saying the kids should not be able to transfer. 0P is just conveying how the portal may play out over the next few years. OP might have some numbers wrong, but the net results of the portal are clear, you can read stats on the large number of kids in the portal that do not find a scholarship and do not play football.
Don’t tell me that the four stars n the five stars will find a home in the two stars and three stars will not find a home. We are all well-versed with that concept.
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CU Guru [1049]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:21 AM
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I like where you're going but per year limits don't include transfers. You can take as many of them as you like. Teams that lose 10 or more to the portal will be looking to replace them.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:30 AM
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Folks can poke holes at some of your numbers, but your fundamental logic is sound, this is almost like a game of musical chairs, better have a chair when the music stops, better have a degree when your eligibility is up, or mama gonna be mad today and you gonna be sad a few years from now when you’re delivery boy for bingo burger.
There was an article about a four-star linebacker at Michigan that entered the portal. He had to sit out a year since it took him a year and a half to land a spot ….. at Troy. I’m not a Michigan fan, I’m not a Big Ten fan, but a degree from Michigan is a ### good thing. No knock on Troy, but it’s different.
Folks can dissect the numbers all they want, but bottom line is there will be kids left without a scholarship.
But this is self-inflicted, so I have no problem with it, sink or swim, eat what you kill. Life is tough boys.
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All-Conference [417]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:37 AM
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The problem with the portal is you have to plan in advance and get in early to get the good ones. Take Alabama for instance. They took already took advantage and got 4 players and a former 5 star WR is leaning that way. If you are going to rely on the portal waiting too late is a terrible decision.
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110%er [6153]
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People will try to dissect this a dozen different ways just
Dec 15, 2021, 10:42 AM
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to discredit the premise.
Regardless of the actual numbers, the overall illustration is spot on.
The Transfer Portal is a knee jerk reaction that creates far more problems than it solves.
The same applies to the NIL ...
This has all been far too sudden and radical.
Radical readjustment will occur in response.
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Tiger Cub [13]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:44 AM
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GREAT STATS and Enlightening !
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110%er [6692]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:44 AM
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Maybe most arent wanted?
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:50 AM
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That’s right, some of these guys are not as highly coveted as their mom n dad are telling them.
See Kyler McMichael. His dad is going to have him go in to seven different schools and probably end up getting a degree from circus school.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 10:54 AM
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Do the kids who enter the portal automatically lose their scholarship or can they return to their original school and retain their scholarship ?
How many of these kids will go to a division II team ??
I would also like to use this opportunity to again advocate for a lowering of scholarships to 75 per team. This would reduce this portal problem AND make college football more competitive by spreading the talent out more evenly across teams in the first place (less stockpiling of players)
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110%er [5014]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 1:52 PM
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Do the kids who enter the portal automatically lose their scholarship or can they return to their original school and retain their scholarship ?
How many of these kids will go to a division II team ??
I would also like to use this opportunity to again advocate for a lowering of scholarships to 75 per team. This would reduce this portal problem AND make college football more competitive by spreading the talent out more evenly across teams in the first place (less stockpiling of players)
Yes ,when you enter the Portal you have told your school that you are not coming back. For all you that poo poo'd my numbers . Dabo just said it much simpler than I could have. Read his comments on the Front Page. He said,
There are about 2000 kids that are in the portal and "MOST" have no where to go. We have devalued education, and these kids are being manipulated by adults. The MAJORITY of them have now forfeited their ability to get a degree.
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110%er [5038]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 11:38 AM
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The sad thing is most of these portal jumpers will not find a new home. They can kiss their free college education and career goodbye.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 11:53 AM
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That’s right, free market, sink or swim, eat what you kill.
There’s a D tackle from Georgia Tech that entered the portal last week, 6-2, 270 pounds, three star. This kid is not going to the NFL. Unless he transfers to Harvard or Vanderbilt, he’s making a big mistake passing up on Georgia Tech degree. At first I thought this is a shame. And then I realized, this is self-inflicted, he is voluntarily passing on a really solid degree. Somebody else will gladly take his opportunity to get a degree.
So it all works out in the end, a little bit of career Darwinism.
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110%er [5072]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 12:01 PM
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I'm afraid the portal will hurt lower talented players but also hurt current top programs like Clemson, Bama, Ohio State, etc... more than help them. Of course you'll see some top players transfer to top teams as we've seen happen with some players.
The reason I say it'll more hurt the top teams though is those teams will lose more 4 and 5 star players compared to other teams that don't recruit as well, and there won't be as many 4 and 5 star players for those teams to replace them with. Those top teams may not want to replace those guys with 2 or 3 star players as often.
A lot of those 4 and 5 star players end up transferring to a lower level team and they take the spot away from some 2 or 3 star player and then that 2 or 3 star player enters the portal unable to find a new home.
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Scout Team [188]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 1:39 PM
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Here's where your logic falters...
If there are roughly 1950 players in the portal, that means that have left roughly 1950 vacancies to be filled, without any change in the numbers of incoming freshmen.
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110%er [5014]
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Re: Why the Portal will fix itself quickly...
Dec 15, 2021, 2:38 PM
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Here's where your logic falters...
If there are roughly 1950 players in the portal, that means that have left roughly 1950 vacancies to be filled, without any change in the numbers of incoming freshmen.
I am using math and facts, you are using theory. Last year less than 1/3rd of the 1750 players that entered the portal were on scholarship this year. You will have to look that up, but I read the numbers on the Athletic earlier this year. So whatever you think about the math, 1165 Kids last year , were "convinced" that the grass was greener on the other side of the fence, only to find out it wasn't. Kids are being lied to, I never though college football would become as sleazy as college basketball recruiting, but is passing it.
Coaches have reverse bag men now,
coaches giving "good job references" on players when asked about them by wanna be agents. Moms and Dads don't think there kid should be on the bench. Kids hear this and they agree with it. They probably started every game in all t he sports they played since little league.
Self inflicted? Is it self inflicted when an adult persuades a 17-19 year old he can get her/him a modeling contract only to use and discard him/her later if he can't sell anyone on the product. Then they just turn around and find another one. If they hit on 1 out of 3 , they will be happy. the other 2/3rds hung themselves out to dry?
Some of you certainly don't appear to be talking about how you would like your own kids treated. The pain is coming from the portal and NIL, and the only people paying the price are the "portal boys" that can't land a spot. NIL will fix itself , because Dr Pepper and others are going to find out that throwing tons of money at 17-19 year old kids is a very bad investment.
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