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All-TigerNet [13693]
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Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 6:05 PM
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Like most of you I’ve been mostly drinking from the rumor mill fountain trying to glean something that provides insight into where college football and our Tigers go next.
One element that has speculative momentum is the idea that the SEC and B1G intend to expand further, then spinoff into their own league entirely.
The model put forward is that once these two conferences reach 20-each, they cut ties and go their merry way, but that leaves 90-teams to do…what? And if I draw the box around all of college football and apply this model, is it REALLY in the LONGTERM best interest of the 40-teams in their super league.
Just to re-use the example of the NCAA basketball tournament, part of the magic of the madness is the idea that ANYONE can make it. In football it’s the “any given Sunday” affect.
While I realize that in college football it’s not plausible for Hawaii to run the table, the Cinderella story is alive and well. Whether it be a Boise St, Northern Illinois, or the Citadel beating the coots, it’s one of the reasons we watch. Not local markets, but the rest of America.
All this said, for (naive) me, it calls the ultimate end state into question.
My guess is that the 5-yr time horizon includes super conferences combined with an expanded playoff whereby the super conference teams get 6 out of 8 available seats in the playoff, but I don’t see a super league that breaks off within that time frame. For optimal PLAYOFF ratings the sport will still need those Cinderellas in the mix.
I’d love to hear your thoughts-
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Walk-On [143]
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Re: What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 6:15 PM
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To make as much money as they possibly can.
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110%er [7173]
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Re: What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 7:16 PM
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To make as much money as they possibly can.
Ding-Ding! I.M.H.O - this is the winner! Monopolizing it isn't the reason; that's the way they will do what ghawkins said!
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Team Captain [495]
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Re: What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 8, 2022, 12:23 AM
[ in reply to Re: What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion? ] |
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Of course this is the answer. To me, the question is, given that, should these conferences not start dumping the schools that are bringing down the revenue - Iowa, UofSC, Vandy, Minnesota, Arkansas? If they are truly creating super-conferences, why not get rid of those that are not super? To me, the next logical step in this thought is moving to a soccer-like pro/rel model where teams that aren’t performing get dumped and the ones outside that are get added.
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110%er [8270]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 6:24 PM
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Think pro football and how many teams are viable in that league. Then think semi-pro football which is what the NIL league is, and how many teams will provide maximum ratings. ESPN and fox will whittle this down to the optimum amount of teams. So the real question is, do we/does Clemson want to be part of that? Gonna take a lot of money, a whole lot of spending money!
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110%er [5012]
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I think there will be a new, non-NCAA super league in -5yrs
Jul 7, 2022, 6:27 PM
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And the super league will start rewarding the teams with payouts commiserate with their performance each year. If you are the worst team in the conf that year, you get the least payout. If you are the best, you get the most payout.
I also think that they will limit scholarships/players you can take in each year based on how well you did. The best teams will get fewer than the worst teams. Sort of like a salary cap in the NFL. That way you force the distribution of the talent around more.
As far as the playoff is concerned, the super league will place 6 teams in and then the best 2 non-super league teams for an 8 team playoff.
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All-TigerNet [13693]
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Re: I think there will be a new, non-NCAA super league in -5yrs
Jul 7, 2022, 6:39 PM
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So your view is that there will still be a pathway for these other teams to get into a playoff albeit a narrower one?
That would seem to suggest that ALL of the 130-teams still need to be woven into an overarching system that both the super league and the have nots agree upon.
That’s what I’m really poking at. Seems like there has to be a functional, integrated system(premier league model) that must be woven together and somehow AGREED upon by all parties.
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110%er [8531]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 6:37 PM
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Money is the pot at the end of the football rainbow. The BIG10 desperately wants to be a football power but has a hard time closing the deal and have schools that will be powerhouses. They are adding the top 2 West Coast schools to if nothing else, increase their enormous market but hope to find magic.
The SEC believes the football everyone plays with is theirs and wants to rub it is everyone's faces. No other conference can match their prowess and by adding 2 of the all-time great powers in Texas and Oklahoma, they hope to remind people the ball is theirs.
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CU Medallion [65368]
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Honestly, I can forsee a day when the BIG and SEC are the
Jul 7, 2022, 7:06 PM
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two super conferences, and EVERYBODY ELSE who was left out has to have some sort of "Play in" tournament to get one or two spots in the expanded Playoffs. By that time, I expect the Playoffs would be no fewer than 8, probably 16.
And, if you think getting a Playoff spot NOW includes some political lobbying, just wait until THEN!
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All-TigerNet [13693]
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Re: Honestly, I can forsee a day when the BIG and SEC are the
Jul 7, 2022, 7:10 PM
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Thanks.
Yes, and that element of it, if that’s really where we think this is headed, seems to require an urgency to ensure you’re in that initial group.
There’s a huge difference between urgency and fear though. We’re going to see programs acting out of both.
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Legend [18262]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 7:12 PM
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Has nothing to do with the sec or big10 it’s about espn and Fox monopolizing cfb so they are the only ones profiting off of it
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Legend [16240]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 7:50 PM
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ESPN is already jockeying for the east / west coast leftovers with their ACC/Pac network combo being put forward. Priming the split up payoff pump and ready to help re-league everyone following.
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All-TigerNet [13693]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 8:01 PM
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Yeah, they’re playing all the angles for sure.
I meant to thumbs up you Lou. I accidentally hit the flush button. I’m sorry my friend. I’ll correct. Just wanted you to know!
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Associate AD [833]
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CU Medallion [52219]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 8:07 PM
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The end game is based on who can seize the most power and money for themselves and ESPN/Disney.
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All-TigerNet [10436]
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Don't know their end game. But the result is it will be pro
Jul 7, 2022, 9:25 PM
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football.
Not college.
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CU Guru [1086]
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Re: Question for the board- What is the true end game for SEC/B1G expansion?
Jul 7, 2022, 9:37 PM
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They're keeping their cards close to their chest and they should. What little if anything is revealed
would be subject to a counter move. At this point I wouldn't believe anything they say.Have to think
they're pretty close to done though. All the big moves have been made. There is very little at this point they could do to create further value to the conference. With the exception of course of Clemson and Notre Dame which is why they're so valued right now. Being greedy as they are I can't help but think either the B1G or SEC takes both.
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Legend [16240]
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Maximize the revenue that can be gained for big time
Jul 7, 2022, 10:08 PM
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college football it appears. Colleges are now competing with NIL sponsorships for revenue, so a land grab of sorts is underway among the leaders in the game to amp up their program value and get there quick. Tying up enough bulk of the top brands between the two helps galvanize each's bargaining power with media rights and post-season structure, and of course charting their own course within or without the NCAA going forward.
On one hand I want it to lead to separating football out from other sports so as to keep closer geographical and historic ties in place for the many that compete a lot more often than football, but on the other hand these many colleges and programs rely on the revenue from football to keep them healthy, and concentrating too much of that into the hands of fewer could trickle down to some real issues for a lot of schools where football isn't the lead.
There's so much money to be made at the top it seems, ultimately what can a non-profit institution do with all those funds except continue to spend them on more stuff, and higher salaries?
I suppose this all winds up with a 12 or 16-team playoff with 8 guaranteed from the big ones and better chances at filling the at-large. I can't see cutting off the path for a Cinderella with a larger post-season pool, but since essentially two leagues will get to call the shots who knows.
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CU Guru [1504]
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Re: Maximize the revenue that can be gained for big time
Jul 7, 2022, 10:44 PM
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Wondering if just football would be not tied to the NCAA. If so, would that open up scholarships for the equivalency sports?
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Freshman [-99]
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Money
Jul 7, 2022, 10:18 PM
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And telling the NCAA to shove it!
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All-Pro [695]
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I honestly think it's because it seems the NCAA may collapse
Jul 7, 2022, 11:39 PM
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And if it does, teams want a seat at the table. I think that's the only thing that makes sense for why Texas and Oklahoma bolted for the SEC and started this thing. They already had money, already had a way to the playoffs, etc. This is about having power if the NCAA goes down.
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Orange Blooded [3639]
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Depends how large the B1G and SEC get
Jul 7, 2022, 11:57 PM
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If both grow to 20 teams, whatever is leftover between the P12, B12 and ACC won't amount to a hill of beans. None of the remaining teams (the "leftovers") will be worth a dime to national TV networks.
The CFP will probably grow to 8 teams and the leftovers will be lucky to get one spot every couple of years. The giant revenue gap will pound them further into the ground each year. Big time recruits will all go to the 40 schools in the B1G/SEC.
The 40 schools will continue funding their entire athletic programs with no problem whatsoever. The leftovers will have to cut things left and right.
The separation between the top 40 and the leftovers will be massive.
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All-TigerNet [13693]
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Re: Depends how large the B1G and SEC get
Jul 8, 2022, 5:27 AM
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That’s what I see as the biggest net negative, and it seems unavoidable
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Legend [17579]
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The true end game for SEC/B1G is ESPN/FOX NEWS revenue
Jul 8, 2022, 12:43 AM
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Most understand that ESPN has lost viewers - lots of viewers. Cable TV sets are being disconnected. To recover and prosper, ESPN needs to boost revenue. College football still sells -- especially the top teams/conferences/brands. Therefore, ESPN wants to add more college football partners (e.g. Texas & Oklahoma.) Next competitor FOX SPORTS reacts by recommending to the B1G that USC & UCLA addition would add LA market and serve as an entree for potential Notre Dame addition. And so on ... and so on ... and here we are.
So bottomline, it's the networks connecting big sponsors (Apple, etc.) with a college football product watched by key demographics that buy cars, boats, mortgages, insurance, medicine, computers, I-phones, food & drink, etc. All to make more money for networks and sponsors. The conferences, universities, coaches and players are suppliers and service providers in this business. That's my take ...
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CU Guru [1793]
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Re: The true end game for SEC/B1G is ESPN/FOX NEWS revenue
Jul 8, 2022, 7:11 AM
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Yup. TV is calling the shots these days.In-person viewing doesn't really count for anything anymore. I ALMOST wish Clemson would just let the big boys go play money football and stay true to the alumni base and local fans. Maybe that is just nostalgia talking...sigh.
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