Re: This. dont let the media hype teams into what they aren't

There's no way you could've listened to him on ESPN the last few years and come to the conclusion that the man can coach. He may well improve UNC, but he's going to do it the way he's always done it - through recruiting. And that's going to take some time. Also, if his staff hires don't pan out they could be a complete disaster, and I'm very skeptical of his pairing of Phil Longo and Jay Bateman.

Army had good total defense numbers last year because they had the #1 TOP offense in the country. Their per play metrics were pretty bad. The Army offense last year masked some big defensive deficiencies simply by keeping their defense off the field.

Some numbers to support this:

Army total defense - 8th at 295.5 YPG
Army YPP allowed - 57th at 5.5 YPP
Army TOP - 1st at 38 min/game
Army DEF S&P+ - 70th

That's pretty respectable for Army, but no huge accomplishment. I certainly didn't think he deserved to be a Broyles Award finalist last year.

And now you are pairing Bateman, who's defense spent an average of 22 min per game on the field in 2018 with Phil Longo who's known for his extremely up-tempo offenses. Ole Miss was 122nd last year in TOP at just 27 min per game meaning Bateman's defense could be on the field 50% longer (33 min vs 22 min) than what he was accustomed to last year at Army. That will wreck those classic defensive stats in a hurry.

We will see, but i feel like Mack Brown hired two coordinators that both have high ceiling but very low floors. If things go bad, they could go realllly bad.

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I see them finishing somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5

May 29, 2019, 12:52 PM

They are almost certainly losing to Bama, UGA, and Clemson. It would take a major, major upset for them to win any of those games. They probably aren't going to win in College Station either. Florida will be better than SC next year, but that game is in Columbia so they will have a shot in that one albeit likely still as an underdog. Honestly it's hard to imagine them winning more than 1 of these 5 games.

And there really aren't many gimmes on the schedule. They should certainly beat CSU, and i think they will probably beat UNC and App although neither of those games are locks. I'm also expecting Kentucky to take a huge step back in 2019 after losing almost their entire starting defense so i think SC will end that streak this year at home. They should be good enough to beat Vandy at home. Out of those 5 games i would expect them to win 4 of them.

That puts them around 5-5 with road games at Missouri and Tenn remaining. In my mind these are really the two swing games in their season that will determine whether or not they miss a bowl or squeak in with 6 or 7 wins. Missouri on the road is going to be a tough out and likely the favorite in that one. Will Tennessee be really bad again in Pruitt's 2nd season? I kind of expect them to improve quite a bit which would make that game in Knoxville really tricky as well. Tennessee is #2 in the country in Bill Connelly's returning production stat bringing back 83% of their total production (OFF and DEF) from 2018. The next closest P5 teams are Minnesota and VT at 78% (this was likely done before the latest wave of VT transfers).

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With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast

SEC Least. That schedule is a joke except for Clemson.

This. dont let the media hype teams into what they aren't