Im not sure. more and more of the upper tier coaches jump to HC without being a HC at a less school. I say it is a even split. A lot of the better talent now will stay at a better school than take a risk at a mid-level HC gig. I mean, job offers are not jumping out at Doeren, Babers, Muscoot, etc as those schools will even take a 9-10 win season and still kill their career.
Considering what a Coordinator can make, TE already makes more than most head coaches in the AAC - Including Jeff Scott.
I can see USC taking Elliott, but I can also see a lot of other options too. TE would be smart to take that type of gig as while that program has expectation issues, it also does not have a ceiling either.
I would expect him to go after Finkell, and he would have a good shot at him.
However, Bohn was on the west coast before Cincy. Finkell has only worked in the state of Ohio. My guess is that while he might be a good choice, from Finkel's perspective it would be a new frontier and be a lack of an immediate base for him.
But then again, I don't see any of the midwestern job openings for Finkel to take. Kelly at ND and Day looks to be sitting in Columbus. Franklin is likely at Ped State. I don't see Mich going after him. Maybe Mich State if this season tanks for Mel, but I see Sparty giving him some time. Nothing else in that area for Luke.