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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:01 PM
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These stats don't even seem real but they are.
* We've only allowed 30 points twice in 3 years. * We've only allowed 8 TD passes through the air all year. * We're averaging almost 100 yards less given up through the air vs LSU 138.5 to 221.7 * We're averaging 1.5 interceptions. * QB's are averaging 50.3% completions.
For LSU to win, Joe Burrow is going to have to defy all those stats. I don't know about you guys but I like those odds.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:05 PM
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Those stats are meaningless considered who we played. They go out the window. We will just have to see. Vegas is expecting us to give up a ton of yards and points. They have Joe Burrow at 365 yards and their RB at 98 yards. They expect LSU to score 36pts. We will see what D we really have tonight. Cant wait.
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:16 PM
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You can't pay attention to rankings, you have to look at the stats. We've played 5 passing offenses in the top 36. In comparison LSU has played 4 in the top 50 and our stats are still way better. I just think they're going to have A LOT harder time scoring through the air than we are and I believe that's the only way they can win the game is if Burrow has like 400+ yards and 4-5+ TD's.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:21 PM
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This ^
The ACC is very *weak* but ironically, it has either very good passing offenses (or very good defense). About the ENTIRE Atlantic has a better offense than Jawja (syracuse & NC state being the exception). only two teams have both their O and D in the top 50. Clemson and ironically... UNC (barely).
We played all of the top ACC passing offense (basically the Atlantic + UNC + UVA).
Still, I think the OSU is a better example of a uber efficient Offense vs our D. Our weakness is normally rushing/containment. However, against a pass heavy offense, they are literally playing into our strength.
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:26 PM
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Also something to watch tonight, I know I keep hearing that our front is "small" and "not as good as last year" but their "award winning" o-line is a great matchup for our front. If you want the tape, they're huge but they're heavy footed and not agile at all. I don't think that will hold up vs guys like Tyler Davis and Xavier Thomas who are as quick at their positions as any in the country. I think they'll be in the backfield all night and you'll see a lot of plays where we're getting pressure with just 3-4 players.
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Hall of Famer [23994]
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We'll have to watch to see how many holding calls are made
Jan 13, 2020, 1:35 PM
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Could make a big difference. If it's called as it should I think we get plenty of pressure with 3/4 guys
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:36 PM
[ in reply to Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight ] |
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I like the 'no name"' defense moniker.
Our D-line is "different" and last year our sack-monsters were unleashed to shore up some secondary shortcomings. This year it is different. Not quite a pass rush, beast mode but much better at containment and pursuit in broken plays. Against both Perkins and Fields, I thought this was evident. The higher INT rate by our D means we are baiting QBs into throwing into coverage... and if OSU is any indicator, WR are bailing on routes.
Considering that our D is playing a whopping 9 snaps per game less than 2018, it isn't just we are playing better but opposing offense are having their opportunities drop by an 8th.... that is basically 2-3 sustained drives per game.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:28 PM
[ in reply to Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight ] |
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You cant pay attention to anyone we played other than OSU. Those other teams sucked, no matter what they were attempting to do.
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Orange Blooded [2287]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 2:06 PM
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Just as most of the teams LSU played sucked.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 2:21 PM
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Possibly true, but it still shows why the stats are meaningless for this game. We dont even play the same teams. LSU has played better teams, but we would have had to play the same team for stats to matter. For all we know LSU would have the top ranked D in the nation had they been in the ACC. There is no telling. We will just watch and see tonight.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 2:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight ] |
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I won't be surprised by the yards.
I will be just a bit surprised by the points. But even if they get 36, TL will find a way to score more.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Can you imagine TL on a two minute drive
Jan 13, 2020, 2:54 PM
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to win the Natty - like DW4
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Re: Can you imagine TL on a two minute drive
Jan 13, 2020, 3:03 PM
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Personally, I'd rather blow them out and the game be pretty much over by halftime. I definitely think we're capable of that type of game but I expect it to be a little more competitive. Maybe 28-14 at half and 42-28 final.
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All-TigerNet [11244]
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Re: Can you imagine TL on a two minute drive
Jan 13, 2020, 3:13 PM
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Skrategy might be sustained drives in beginning to keep it away from burro. Keep defense fresh for second half lock down. Then speed the tempo to keep them on their heels. Sounds good anyway.
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Orange Blooded [3639]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:27 PM
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Stats are worthless now. LSU is playing their best now on both sides of the ball and their offense is on a historic roll.
We have to get our heads out of the sand and face reality: They will score a lot of points and our offense must also.
Simple as that.
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:29 PM
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Alabama was on a similar run last year. They've actually scored the same amount of points. How many points did they score vs us? Not saying we'll hold LSU to 16 but I definitely think we'll hold them under 30. I got Clemson 42-28.
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All-TigerNet [10822]
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All-In [32131]
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Re: I don’t have to concede that. I think we can realistically
Jan 13, 2020, 2:43 PM
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Agree. Also, most everyone speaks as though it is a given that the LSU offense will be "on" tonight. Now, they certainly could be, but I'll wait to see how they perform. Especially if we are able to put pressure on them with offense as well as defense.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Mo, I agree with your assumptions
Jan 13, 2020, 2:57 PM
[ in reply to Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight ] |
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but not your conclusions.
OSU was on quite a tear too and we limited their scoring significantly.
In fact, given how their defense id now playing, I think the lower the score the better for us. high 20s or low 30s.
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110%er [5072]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:28 PM
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I don't think our defense will "dominate" them, but they don't have to dominate them in order to be successful. They just have to keep LSU out of the end zone as much as possible, and keep LSU's scoring at least in the low to mid 30's in order for our offense to be able to win the game for us. Last year against Bama we gave up 443 yards including 295 yards passing, and that was with us keeping the ball for the final 10+ minutes of the game. Those stats aren't exactly dominant, but we held them back whenever they got into the red zone. If we can do similar tonight then I like our chances.
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:34 PM
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Just for comparison....
Passing defense
2018: 183.8 yards 11 TD's 9 INT's QBR 110.9 2019: 138.5 yards 8 TD's 17 INT's QBR 92.8
We're much better than last year when we held a historically good Alabama offense to 16 points. I definitely see a similar performance this year.
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All-TigerNet [10822]
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so... we didn’t play anybody last year either ?
Jan 13, 2020, 1:40 PM
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We’re DOOMED
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CU Guru [1746]
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Hopefully Burrow is as confident in his throws as Tua was...
Jan 13, 2020, 1:42 PM
[ in reply to Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight ] |
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Tua tended to just 'let it fly' like he was invincible at times and we took advantage of it last year. I trust our coverage and we'll need to win more 50/50 balls that we lose. Although they may kill us underneath...in the end it'll come down to how we play in the redzone.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 3:00 PM
[ in reply to Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight ] |
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I think this LSU might be better (ie - less predictable) than was Bama.
But not sooo much better as to win this ballgame.
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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Re: Stats that say our defense dominates tonight
Jan 13, 2020, 1:49 PM
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Also another stat. In those games I mentioned above LSU is averaging 33.75 points given up in their 4 games vs top 50 passing offenses. In our 5 games vs top 36 passing offenses we've allowed an average of 15.4 points.
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All-In [40342]
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a friend of mine did a WAY too detailed analysis
Jan 13, 2020, 2:16 PM
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LSU’s offense is very reliant on big pass plays.
70% of yardage production is through the air with 3/5 TDs being pass plays.
They’ve only scored 5 more TDs than us with only 2 less picks. 87-82 on the TDs and 6-8 on ints
There is a pretty steep decline in TDs and yardage production from their top 2/3 receivers to the next guys.
85% of TDs comes from 3 receivers for LSU, 55% of their receiving yards come from 2 guys.
Johnson and Chase account for 41% of all TDS, not just passing
The rushing offense is a one trick pony behind Clyde E-H, the bulk of the yards and TDs . Add him to stat line above and you’ve got 3 guys accounting for 71% of all TDs.
So to tie the last part back to the beginning part, Burrow, Johnson and Chase are easily identified as being the backbone of this offense statistically speaking. If we can find a way to contain those 2 receivers and not allow them the big yardage plays that lead to the majority of the TDs for the entire offense, rushing included we could have some fun watching the greatest QB ever have a not so great night. Obviously, easier said than done.
I didn’t focus as much on the Clemson side as I did theirs since we all are pretty familiar with Clemson We have 6 receivers with 3+ TDs, they have 4. We have 8 guys that have rushed for a TD (including our backup QB with 1) and they have 5.
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All-In [40342]
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One more tidbit
Jan 13, 2020, 2:26 PM
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Our two most TD scoring players are a receiver and a RB (Higgins and ETN) and they account for 37% of total TDs, not just in one phase of the game.
We are balanced AF.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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"Dominating" probably means holding them to something
Jan 13, 2020, 2:55 PM
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in the 20s. Which would be awesome because if we do that i think we almost certainly win.
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