Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

May 18, 2019, 8:19 PM

After Kobe Pryor's commitment today, our 2020 class now has 16 total recruits. Using the 24/7 composites that averages Rivals, ESPN and 24/7's proprietary ratings, we now have a total of 289.81 points with each recruit averaging 95.35.

I fully realize that recruiting ratings are far from a perfect indicator of future performance, but there's no denying that the schools that rank the best in recruiting are much more likely to be in the national title hunt that those that don't. There are of course outliers that recruit great like USC and FSU that fail to meet expectations as well as those that recruit average but tend to perform well in most years (Wisconsin, Michigan State). Also, my analysis does get quite heavy in the numbers, but it is something that I find interesting. If you don't like analytics and/or recruiting ratings, you don't have to read it. I just wanted to include that disclaimer to hopefully ward off any negative comments.

Prior to this year, our best class on paper was our 2018 class of 17 commits with 283.67 points. Not only was that our most points ever, but it was our best ever in terms of average rating per recruit at 93.45. We had five 5-star recruits in that class. It was only ranked 7th nationally due to the size of only 17 recruits, and the first 25 recruits are used to evaluate a class.

Admittedly, I am not sure how many total recruits we will be taking in 2020, but given the pending transfers of Feaster and Shaq Smith, it will be larger than anticipated a couple months ago. Regardless of the what the final number ends up being, there's no question that we will be taking at least a handful additional players (It would be much appreciated if anyone has a more accurate number).

Now let's compare this class to other recent classes both of our and compared to other national powers.

In most years, there tends to be an average of 2-3 classes that end up having over 300 points (or really close to 300). Our current total of 289 for our first 16 recruits would already be good enough for 3rd to 5th nationally in most years. That makes it not only our best class ever in terms of total points, but it is sure to be our highest ranked class ever going by the 24/7 composite (our 7th ranked 2018 class is our best). As many have pointed out, this 2020 class will likely force Dabo to retire his pitch about how Clemson has never had a #1 class. Even if it were to end up not being #1, it will be far and away our best class.

On their website 24/7 has a really neat tool called 'class calculator' that allows you to predict how the class will shape up by adding other potential recruits into the mix. I've wasted far too much time for an adult looking at high school football players trying to guess how it will shake up. Although we don't know exactly who else will be joining between now and Feb 2020, there seems to be a somewhat reliable range of possibilities. Barring something extremely unlikely like us not getting any additional recruits, the likely range is between 305-320 total points. There are several different ways to arrive at those numbers. The high end appears to be somewhere around 325 if we continue to hit on all of our top targets until we run out of room.

From a historical perspective, there are really five classes that separate themselves as the best ever (based on recruiting ratings). These are 2010 Florida (28 recruits, 324.62), 2017 Bama (29, 323.87), 2018 UGA (26, 323.31), 2014 Bama (26, 319.71) and 2013 Bama (26, 319.50). There were also an additional 8 classes that have had between 310-317 points.

The bottom line is that this 2020 class will not only be far and away the best class in Clemson history, but it will almost certainly be top 10-15 in terms of all-time classes. It has a really good shot at being top 5 all-time, and an outside shot at breaking the record if we were to somehow end up needing to recruit 25 players. It will almost certainly be the best class in history for a smaller class if we end up with less than 25.

Our current average rating per player of 95.35 would easily be the best in history, but it will likely go down at least a little as the class fills up. Landing Jordan Burch would go a long way in making sure that the 2020 class does indeed set the record for highest average recruit rating. The current record is 2017 Ohio State at 94.59 followed by 2019 Bama at 94.38, 2018 UGA at 94.23 and 2018 USC at 94.23. There have been 7 other classes that averaged between 93.50 and 94.00 per player. Interestingly, our 2018 class of ours is currently 12th best historically at 93.45 per player.

All of this is extremely impressive as it is, but there are a couple of other important factors that make this even more impressive and exciting. First, as of a couple weeks ago, the Clemson coaches had only offered a total of 98 scholarships in 2020. That means that not only have we already hit on just under 20 percent of the players we offer, but we are offering considerably less than other top tier programs like Bama, Georgia and Ohio State who have offered between 190-230 scholarships. That fact alone sets a Clemson offer apart from the other competitors in how much more exclusive a Clemson offer truly is. There was the recent story about the 5 star defensive lineman out of Tennessee that told reporters that Clemson told him that they would have to back off of his recruitment because the number of spots along the Dline is nearly full. What other program would ever back off of a 5 star recruit that they had a great chance at landing rather than somehow 'finding' a scholarship for that player? What other program in the country has as many former walk-ons end up earning scholarships? Heck, what other program allows anywhere close to as many players to play meaningful snaps in the games?

The other thing that is vital to mention is that even though Dabo's classes have ranged around 20th for his first few years, around 15th for a couple years, and around 10th for the past several, the on-field results speak for themselves. There has been no other team that has achieved the same level of success without having consistent top 5 recruiting (i.e., Bama, Ohio State, UGA). Oklahoma is the only other program that manages to win consistently without top 5 recruiting, but as we know too well, they aren't quite on the level of Clemson.

As much as I understand the importance of remaining humble and hungry (specifically for the players) as well as the value of being able to play the underdog card, for the first time in my life not only do I think we have a chance to win another national championship, but I actually would almost expect us to win another one in the next few years. That doesn't mean that it's any less exciting and amazing of an accomplishment, but it's just an indicator of where Dabo and company have elevated us as a program.

If we were able to win 2 national titles and go 55-4 since 2014 with recruiting that has been 10-15th nationally, just think about the possibilities if and when we begin to recruit #1 nationally. As Dabo and many others have pointed out, the best really is yet to come and there really is 'something in them thar hills.'

Thanks for taking the time to read it.

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Looking at the top classes, it shows you that all of the most successful programs tend to recruit at a very high level. There are plenty of blue chip recruits that don't pan out in the long run, but the likelihood of a 4 or 5 star being successful in college and making it to the NFL is much higher than 2 and 3 star recruits.

I would add that even the most talented roster in the world even if the ratings were 100 percent accurate cannot overcome substandard coaching and program turmoil. That would be the case for programs like Florida and USC for the past decade since Pete Carroll left. Conversely, even the best coaches in the world cannot regularly contend for championships with subpar talent.

I completely agree that having good coaches that are able to get the most out of their players and coach them up so to speak is the single most important factor in determining success. Having talent is still extremely important though.

Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

Fun read for sure but you missed a math variable...

Re: Fun read for sure but you missed a math variable...

One other thing...

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

Slight correction.

Re: Slight correction.

Gawd

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

the only reason Dabo was pitching we've never had a #1 class

One thing that stood out to me

Re: One thing that stood out to me

Re: One thing that stood out to me

We are already getting recruits that Bama wants

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

This old fart says

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

ESPN Or Someone....

Worth noting....

That Georgia program

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

TigerBoard POTD