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All-TigerNet [12246]
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ISW Military Update 31 March
Mar 31, 2022, 8:21 PM
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Over the past several days since my last update, the war in Ukraine seemed to be in a phase where gains are measured in small increments in lieu of major offenses. On a daily analysis it makes determining what is significant from just another chipping away at one side or the others combat power somewhat difficult. Over time however, these little "chipping away" firefights start to form a picture of what is going on the battlefield and things become a little clearer. One thing that has become clear since 24 March is that Ukraine has taken more land than they have lost and Russia has not made anymore significant gains in any AO.
I don't want to make too much out of this yet, but in many conflicts there comes a point to where the aggressor (Russia in this case) either achieves their objectives or reaches a point of diminishing returns. The fact that Russia is now receding from their high water marks and is struggling to reconstitute their forces and are pulling replacement equipment out of aging stocks leads me to believe Russia is quickly approaching, if having not already reached, a point of diminishing returns because time is starting to work against them.
The Russians are frantically moving manpower from Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia region), their military training base, their military schools (including cadets), and hired mercenaries (Wagner group) in addition to the forces they already tapped from other satellite states (Chechnya) and friends (Syria). I've read reports that the Russian replacement equipment stocks to which they are now drawing are of 1970's/80's vintage where most are in a state of disrepair and ill maintenance. This is not just vehicles/weapons systems but small arms as well. I've seen photos of some of the conscripted Russian units in the DNR being armed with bolt action Mosin-Nagant rifles - vintage 1891.
Several days ago the Russian MOD made the announcement that they were "significantly scaling back" operations in the Kyiv/Chernihiv area of operations. They couched this as a "good faith gesture" in negotiations with Ukraine but as with most things coming out of Russian mouths these days - that is a lie. The only scaling back in the Kyiv/Chernihiv region they are doing is what they have been forced to do out of military necessity. The units that have been pulled out of Ukraine and the subsequent ground relinquished was due to the choice of either retreat and consolidate their combat power or risk losing those units all together. By all indications, the Russians are still conducting a holding action in the Kyiv AO and have (at least temporarily) traded space for consolidation and time. If the Russian military has assessed one of their units has the means to hold ground - you can bet they ain't leaving the Kyiv AO. For the Russian forces that have been pulled back to Belarus and Russia to reconstitute, it is speculated they will eventually be sent to the Donbas region but that has yet to be seen.
Over the past couple of days, it appears the Ukrainians have made some real headway towards lifting the Russian siege of Chernihiv. The Ukrainian 1st Armored Brigade has retaken the village of Sloboda with other Ukrainian units taking Lukashivka, Yhidne, Zolotynka - all villages along key routes just to the South of Chernihiv. At this rate the siege of Chernihiv by Russian ground forces is about to end.
Further to the Southeast of Chernihiv towards Kyiv, the Ukrainians have taken Nova Basa which sits in the middle of highway H07 along the main Russian Sumy supply route. In fact, for all intents and purposes, the Russians have been pushed North of H07 and no longer have free use of that main supply route from Nova Basa all the way to Romny. The Russian forces East of Brovary (elements from the Russian 90th GTD) are getting dangerously close to being cut off by Ukrainian forces. Let's hope that in the coming days Ukraine can starve these Russian units of supplies and destroy them or force their surrender.
During my last update I commented on the Donets River line South of Izyum and the risk from a Russian breakthrough by their 3rd MRD in the vicinity of Severodonetsk. It appears the Ukrainians were either able to successfully plug the hole or attrit the Russian forces that crossed the Donets River South of Izyum to the point they are no longer a threat to Severodonetsk.
During these updates I've tried to stay in the military operations lane but we are at a point in this conflict to where I think it is a fair question to ask what is the US policy goal regarding this conflict? More directly - is Ukraine allowed to win? I ask these questions from a perspective of the types of military aid and the speed at which it is being delivered by the US and NATO to Ukraine.
Leading up and through the initial phase of this conflict, it was largely predicted that Ukraine would fall to the Russians within a matter of days to a week. The Pentagon predicted Kyiv would fall in 3 to 4 days. So it was understandable why the Biden Administration took a policy posture of purely "defensive" military aid because that aid would also be useful in supplying a long insurgency in which most experts thought would be "phase 2" of this conflict. Very few could have predicted the fight or success of the Ukrainian military nor the incompetence of the Russian military.
But as this conflict has progressed and is in a completely different place than it was 3 weeks ago - it feels like the US policy is still stuck in a pre-hostility "Kyiv will fall/insurgent support" mode. The reality is that there is a real opportunity that with the right kind of military aid Ukraine could actually "win" this conflict while setting the Russian military into such a poor state that Russia would cease to be a significant threat to their neighbors for years.
There is an OpEd in the Washington Post (Josh Rogin - Ukraine needs better air defense systems, not more excuses) that highlights the Biden Administrations continued reluctance to supply Ukraine with more aggressive military aid. The thing that struck me most in this OpEd is not the slow walk of available S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine, but the general process/policy of deciding aid:
"The transfer of any system is being closely scrutinized by the White House and National Security Council as to whether or not it meets their test of what’s escalatory and what’s not," a senior congressional aide told me. "That’s causing the system to be constipated."
It is frustrating beyond words to see that the Biden Administration is still adhering to a pre-conflict "escalation" ladder that was based on a policy (supporting a Ukrainian insurgency) for which does not match the reality on the ground today. I don't know what it takes for the Biden Administration, his NSC, and Pentagon politicos to realize that Russia has in fact escalated this conflict to just about as far as they dare go. The Russian military is struggling to handle the current load in Ukraine and the last thing the Russians can afford (or want) is to take any action that invites an active NATO response. As such, the current military aid "escalation ladder" is garbage as Russia is in no position to do anything to prevent the US or any other NATO country from supplying more conventional offensive capabilities to Ukraine.
At this point, I can't make out a clear Biden Administration policy towards the Ukraine war. It really appears that they want to do just enough to have a stalemate instead of a Ukrainian win. This makes absolutely no sense to me and will ultimately result in much more death, destruction, and suffering by all involved. By most accounts I've read, after 3 weeks of hostilities Ukraine has some 350k to 400k men between their active military, Territorial Defense Forces, and mobilized reserves to put up against the Russians. If true, Ukraine has the numbers - they just need more offensive weapons (small arms, armored vehicles, drones, artillery, counter-battery systems, aviation assets, and above all enough ADA systems to start blunting Russia's air advantage) to force a Russian departure of Ukraine.
Finally... a few hours ago, ITV reported that Britain's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace stated that long range artillery and armored vehicles (although not tanks) will be supplied to Ukraine as a result of today's donor conference. I hope this is an accurate report because it could signal a change in mindset by at least one NATO member. The USA should be leading this charge to provide offensive military aid but if Britain can force the USA to grow a spine and follow suit then so be it...
Enough of my ranting - here's the latest ISW update:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31![]() Institute for the Study of War Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and toward Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring Russian forces and seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations. Ukrainian forces northwest of
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: ISW Military Update 31 March
Mar 31, 2022, 8:34 PM
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It's astounding that as many gazillion AK-47's the Russians have stamped out - along with maybe even more Chinese knock-offs of the same - that the Russians could somehow be reduced to sending conscripts armed with Mosin-Nagrants. I remember shooting one of those probably 30 years ago when I was a kid and the thing was ancient then.
I'm with you. Sent what you can. Send the Russians scurrying and teach them a resounding lesson.
Any chance they end up paying for stripping their troops from Georgia? You know the Georgians would love to repay them, and if there's a protracted conflict in Ukraine and the Russians show throat, you'd think they absolutely may.
A significant enough defeat would set the Russians back 10 or even 20 years - they've probably set themselves back close to 10 years as it is - and it could well inspire their breakaway or wanna-be-breakaway Republics to give them the finger and go for it. Which is why I still think Putin is likely to use chemical weapons on the way out of Ukraine, if for no other reason to remind his enemies that he has them and will use them, and deter anybody from resisting him too vigorously in the future.
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All-TigerNet [12246]
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Like you - I'm hoping Georgia really sees the opportunity
Mar 31, 2022, 8:58 PM
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that is starting to present itself. The Russians would completely poop their pants if Georgia started making trouble in their disputed regions. I've been trying to find out how much military capability Georgia has but haven't found any reliable information on that as of yet.
Chemical weapons are about the only realistic escalation card Putin has left to play. In all honesty, people categorize chemical weapons as a "weapon of mass destruction" but in battlefield reality against forces that are minimally prepared for it - chemical weapons are not as effective as conventional fires.
There are so many factors that affect the potency of chemical weapons (weather, wind, location, concentration) etc.. that their use is somewhat limited. In truth, chemical weapons are more terror weapons than WMD and that is why they are normally only used by tyrants on unprotected civilian populations in tight spaces.
After Putin started targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure for destruction, I think he has reached the top of his acceptable escalation ladder. We attribute a lot of unknowns to Putin but at the end of the day his life's focus is being the modern Czar of Russia with self preservation being his top priority. I just don't see nukes being in Putin's escalation cards because any employment (no matter the size) of a nuke would demand a world response (even China would have trouble ignoring it) and I don't think Putin would ultimately survive the response.
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All-TigerNet [12246]
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Just reported that Australia will be sending armored troop
Apr 1, 2022, 9:29 AM
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carriers (Bushmaster vehicles) to Ukraine. That makes two US allies (Britain and Australia) that are finally recognizing that Ukraine has a chance to win if they are provided the right kind of conventional support. Time for the USA to get off our azz's and start leading this effort to get more offensive military aid to Ukraine...
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: Just reported that Australia will be sending armored troop
Apr 1, 2022, 11:19 AM
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I'd give them anything short of chemical weapons themselves. I wanna see half the Russian army's equipment left behind in Ukraine, make it 20 years before they can think of trying some sh!t like this again.
Then let Putin squawk away about his nukes as the isolated paranoid dictator of what amounts to a New Greater North Korea, living as a pariah on the world stage while the world passes him by technologically and financially and eventually even his nuclear delivery systems get so behind the times they'll never reach their targets. That's the Russians' own problem to deal with, there.
Eventually his regime either caves, or stays isolated and alone. Either does splendidly from where I sit, as long as he's not invading his neighbors in Europe, trying to rebuild a hostile behemoth of an empire, and sabotaging our own political systems and poisoning Americans against one another and sending ransomware gangs to run amok in our infrastructure.
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All-TigerNet [12246]
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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110%er [5072]
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Re: ISW Military Update 31 March
Apr 1, 2022, 1:29 PM
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To be fair, attacks like this should only happen during a war. Russia is clearly not involved in a war, they're only involved in a special military operation.
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Hall of Famer [24753]
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First off, look forward to your updates... Nice work. Seems
Apr 1, 2022, 2:20 PM
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we agree concerning the lag in the supply lines via US of late. Plenty of talk, no walk. Using Ukraine to drain Russian materiel is almost a crime of it's own. Give them the tools. Let'em work.
As to Mosin Nagants, quit bad-mouthing my rifle... '46 Russian M44 carbine w/Timney trigger in an Archangel stock. Ammo's cheap and it's a great compact shooter inside 300yds... ;~).
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