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ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 7:33 AM
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Now that the opening Russian ground campaign has culminated there has not been a lot of movement - even in Eastern and Southern Ukraine where Russia was having some initial success. Most of the fighting is localized smaller skirmishes/counterattacks that are not shifting the front line traces in any significant way. The Kyiv AO has largely been static since 9 March and Mariupol still alludes the Russian attackers...
Russia is now fortifying their positions (i.e "digging in) and over the last two days I've read numerous reports that the Russians are setting up minefields. The problem with Russian minefields is that for the most part they still use the landmine technology of their Soviet Warsaw Pact era - "dumb mines". If there is one idea in modern warfare that is almost as stupid as using biological agents - it is seeding a countryside with dumb mines. By way of comparison, the USA has largely done away with the practice of laying minefields and even when we did, US mines were either "command detonated" (Claymore type) or mines with a time duration (usually hours or days) that would self detonate or become inert. Dumb mines can sit in/on the ground for a 100 years, well after the war is over, and blow up a farmer or some kid who happens to set it off while plowing or playing in a field.
I grew to hate mine warfare during my short stint in Bosnia with IFOR. The Bosnians and Serbs (mostly Serbs) had planted more Warsaw Pact mines throughout the country than farm crops. The rule was literally - stay on the roads that have been cleared and if you see something on the ground you didn't put there - don't pick it up. Like most idiot Army's that lay dumb mines - they very rarely dig up the mines after they are no longer needed NOR do they properly document the minefield so that after the conflict mine clearing teams can properly remove them. Nope - the mines just get left in the ground for years, unmarked and ready to indiscriminately kill whoever happens to be unlucky enough to trigger it. I would bet my paycheck that the Russian Army is doing the same thing in Ukraine - putting mines out with no documentation whatsoever and these mines will be a problem well after this conflict is settled. Like I said - dumb mine warfare is almost as stupid of an idea as introducing biological agents.
Another interesting tidbit that came out yesterday was that the pro Russian tabloid "Komsomolskaya Pravda" accidentally posted the Russian MoD's casualty figures. According to the short lived post (it was taken down almost immediately) the Russian Armed Forces have sustained 9,861 killed in action and 16,153 wounded in action in Ukraine. I think those numbers (particularly KIA) are low as by numerous accounts, the Russians are leaving a LOT of their dead where they lie and have even turned down overtures by the Ukrainian forces to come get their bodies. Either way - that is a lot of casualties and is more than the USA sustained over our 20 years of conflict in the middle east.
Speaking of casualties, I've seen it reported in several different places now that the entirety of the Russian 331st VDV Regiment (i.e. Airborne Regiment) that was situated in the Kyiv AO ceases to exist. The only surviving members are a few wounded soldiers that are in Ukrainian hospitals and about 100 members that surrendered. Everyone else, including their war criminal commander (Colonel Sergei Sukharev) and their deputy commander are all dead. The 331st VDV is listed as having close to 2000 Soldiers pre-invasion so if these reports are true (Colonel Sukharev is confirmed dead) then that is astounding to say the least...
Regardless of the 331st VDV Regiment report - Russia cannot continue to sustain this kind of casualty rate for every 3 weeks of fighting. These high casualty rates are the driving force as to why the Russian attacks have stalled and resulted in them reverting to their Grozny strategy (dig in at a stand-off distance and pound the cities with artillery). As I've said before, now that the initial Russian onslaught has been blunted, Ukraine has got to take some risk and throw a crushing punch somewhere along the front that does irreparable damage to the Russian operation. The longer Ukraine waits, the harder it will become to make that punch as the Russians set into a fortified defense...
Here's last nights ISW update:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21![]() Institute for the Study of War
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 21, 5:30pm ET
Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city and strengthen defensive positions but did
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 8:43 AM
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Another incredibly informative post and I thank you once again for it.
Question for you: was the 331st VDV that regiment they tried to take that airfield outside Kyiv on the opening day of the non-war with? Because I remember the Russians making a very bold, very aggressive strike, trying to take that airport as a forward staging area...but I know it went bad and the Ukrainians responded very quickly, and put an end to that. Is that the Russian unit that's now gone?
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 10:06 AM
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Another incredibly informative post and I thank you once again for it.
Question for you: was the 331st VDV that regiment they tried to take that airfield outside Kyiv on the opening day of the non-war with? Because I remember the Russians making a very bold, very aggressive strike, trying to take that airport as a forward staging area...but I know it went bad and the Ukrainians responded very quickly, and put an end to that. Is that the Russian unit that's now gone?
Funny you mention this...I've been trying to confirm which Russian airborne unit was involved in the Hostomel (Antonov International Airport) seizure in the beginning of this "special military operation". So far I haven't been able to confirm if it was the 331st VDV but I'm still looking.
Someday when the actual battlefield accounts of this conflict are pieced together by military historians you can bet it is going to be a fascinating study.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 9:36 AM
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Thanks. I love reading these from you.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 10:06 AM
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do you think russia would have been more successful if they had attacked on one front?
easier to resupply maybe
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 2:02 PM
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Out of all the possible scenarios it really looks like Russia chose the most difficult by having essentially a simultaneous 5 axis attack (Northeast of Dnieper Axis, Chernihiv/Sumy Axis, Kharkiv Axis, Donbas Axis, and Southern/Kherson Axis). That is an extremely difficult operation to execute even for a really good professional military much less the Russian military who has a bunch of barely trained conscripts in many of their formations.
In a "big hand little map" view - I would have had a North and East axis of attack. The North axis would have been a weighted multi-echelon main effort whose purpose was to take Kyiv. The East axis (Donbas region) would be a seek and destroy axis whose sole purpose was to engage and fix the Ukrainian military and not get bogged down in city fighting. Find the Ukrainian mech units and take them out. Of course I wouldn't have kicked any of this off without having a thorough 24/7 air campaign that pummeled the p*ss out of the Ukrainian military defensive positions, communications networks (Ukraine would be a communications black hole right now), and air defense for at least a week or more.
There were a lot more ways to do this but fortunately the Russians chose the most difficult for which neither their leadership nor their troop training was prepared to execute.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 3:23 PM
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Why'd they do it the very hard way? Arrogance? Bad information?
They kicked things off with an airborne hot assault on that airport, even as troops were rolling across the border. It failed, bigly. (That unit may no longer even exist!) Then, as you mentioned, they rolled in every which way, splitting their forces, going after far too many objectives, and wound up basically getting none of them. (They may yet convince Mariupol to surrunder. Bravo. It's literally right on the border. I checked. Google Maps has it as 1 hour, 9 minutes up the M14 - 59.9km, or 37 miles - from Mariupol to Maksimov, Russia, right up the coast.)
And if the Russians wind up with Mariupol in the end, well, it's 90%+ destroyed. That means they get to foot the bill of rebuilding the entire city.
As stated above, the Russians have taken a minimum of 40K casualties at this point, probably more than that since if the Russkies themselves are confirming 10K dead, that number is undoubtedly higher.
You look at what Russia's likely going to get, it's going to be a few fragments of territory in Donetsk and Luhansk - nowhere near the entire territory of either state. It does appear, if they can force Mariupol to capitulate, that is - they may be able to secure a narrow coastal land bridge down to Crimea. They might keep a few fragments of territory they pushed out from already-occupied Crimea into. Unless they show far more capability than we've seen, they won't get Odessa, they won't get Kharkiv, they won't get Kyiv.
That's nothing. Absolutely nothing. Especially considering they're expending probably close to 10% of their total military by the end, losing thousands of men and vehicles and aircraft, expending enormous stocks of fuel and ammunition, absolutely gutting their economy, and getting themselves declared pariahs on the world stage. This is a costly disaster that yielded them almost zilch, in practical terms. And now they're bordered by an outright enemy who hates them, will absolutely turn Westward even if they don't join NATO, and will completely turn away from Russian influence.
And worse, are the Russians really even going to be able to hold what they've taken indefinitely? The territory they've taken will always remain disputed, and some future post-Putin Russian regime looking to get back into the world's good graces would seem quite likely to try to win political brownie points by handing it back.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 3:58 PM
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Agreed on all...
I've read some reports that none of the leadership thought they would actually go into Ukraine. Most thought the buildup at the border was just "saber rattling". Oops...
After looking at this whole Russian military disaster there may very well be some credence to those reports. It really has the feel that the Russian military leadership saw this as a chest pounding opportunity where they could show off some grandiose war plans while bragging about their Russian superiority all while believing it was just for show and that they would never have to actually execute the plans. I bet almost all the Generals got that ole b*tt pucker when Putin looked at them and said "do it".
Mariupol is truly a disaster - not sure there is much more left that hasn't been turned into rubble and the fact the Russians still can't take it is embarrassing from a military perspective. But the same goes for Sumy and Kharkiv which the Russians haven't been able to take either and are also about a 45 minute drive from the Russian border. Militarily speaking, with all the advantages the Russians had at the start of this thing - that is PATHETIC...
I imagine one of the big conversations this week at the NATO summit is going to be about a Putin "off-ramp" in Ukraine. Ukraine is not going to accept some of the crazy terms the Russians have thrown out in the current negotiations - so what is Putin's save face escape from this tar baby that he has grabbed hold of?
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 10:35 AM
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Hello tabbyplague® thanks for another highly informative post.
(?) With respect to advice that Ukraine hits Russia with a big punch before Russia's defenses get consolidated, in what part of Ukraine do they possess the favorable ratio of force against the (Russian) defense to pull off that move? And without any apparent dominant air power in any region of the Ukraine, how will Ukraine pull off such an offensive?
I recognize ... the longer this goes on ... that key high level people in the Ukraine might bolt with Ukrainian money and set up camp in Switzerland or similar place and leave the Ukrainian people to their fate. So time isn't necessarily on the side of the Ukrainians. Also, if Putin can consolidate his power by 'arresting' potential internal adversaries in the Russian bureaucracy, then Putin will buy some more time for his plodding offensive to win.
So I get it that a big offensive strike by Ukraine might be psychologically effective in arousing more discord within Russia. Even if Ukraine doesn't 'win' (in the tactical sense) via an offensive, then they might 'win' in the strategic sense (much like the Vietnam War's 1968 Tet Offensive was a big tactical loser for the Vietcong ... yet turned out to be a strategic winner).
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 3:23 PM
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Because Ukraine is not providing any information about their forces (and wisely so) it's difficult to know where the best opportunity for a counter-punch would be.
In a perfect world, I would hope that Ukraine has the forces available to start a counter-offensive against the Russian forces on the North/Northwest outskirts of Kyiv. Use the Dnieper River as a natural barrier to isolate the Russian forces from the East and roll them up one town at a time starting with the Irpin AO. My gut tells me the Russians are weak in this AO and if Ukraine can get some momentum pushing the Russians back from the outskirts of Kyiv while also cutting off the limited Russian logistics tail behind them - the Russian Northwest Axis may end up collapsing all together.
At this point, I don't think any of the Ukrainian Government leaders are going to bolt. If they were going to do so they would have already left when they were facing much stiffer Russian forces than what is currently arrayed against them. The Ukrainian military and people have been hitting way above their weight class and in many ways are winning this fight. Zelensky, the Ukrainian MoD, and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership are a big reason for why they have managed to stop this Russian onslaught as they inspired a belief and determination to fight in the Ukrainian military and people. I think Zelensky and his boys are in it for the long haul as are the people.
IMO the next phase is about creating the battlefield leverage to get the best outcome that Ukraine can achieve in a negotiated settlement. I just don't know that Ukraine has the ability to literally push the Russians back out of Ukraine so it really is about getting the best deal they can get. Russia still has a lot of the leverage because they can sit in defensive positions and lob artillery into Kyiv. Ukraine needs to change that calculus to where the Russians are in a less dominating position so that Putin is forced to take an off-ramp out of Ukraine that he otherwise wouldn't. The only way I know that Ukraine can do that is by taking some risk with a counter-offensive that rolls up a significant number of Russian units.
At some point, I think Putin's miscalculation on Ukraine is going to be the thing that eventually tubes is dictatorship. The Russian military is being severely damaged in both reputation and combat power. Combine a greatly diminished military with a collapsing economy and eventually enough of the important people in Russia are going to start questioning the wisdom of Russia's current leadership.
No matter what Putin negotiates to end the current Ukraine "special military operation", I doubt it will last very long. Putin and mother Russia have burned a bridge with the Ukrainian people that will last for generations. There ain't no hate in this world like Slavic hate - I saw that first hand in Bosnia. You can bet that the Ukrainian people will work diligently to separate themselves from Russia with every fiber of their being the moment that they believe they have the ability to do so.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 6:49 PM
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Thank you for the additional perspective / opinions.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 11:06 AM
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Over 26,000 either killed or injured, that's simply an amazing number. I wonder if that includes captured forces or not? I also wonder what the real number of losses are to aircraft, tanks, vehicles, etc...? I'd be interested in the estimated money spent by Russia on this "military exercise" so far.
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Re: ISW Military Update for 21 MAR (Day 26)
Mar 22, 2022, 11:16 AM
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That's probably low, too. The Russians themselves confirmed 10K dead this morning from their ministry, before they yanked the post, and they say for every man killed there's another three wounded...which would bring that number a lot closer to 40K dead or wounded.
That's a lot. Especially since they invaded with not even 200K.
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