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Oculus Spirit [90819]
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What % would you put on TiGERS being In Final 4?
Nov 14, 2016, 5:43 PM
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I say 75% "for sure" if win regular season & ACCCG.
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Lot o points [155795]
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Slim to none. Brownell is still rebuilding.***
Nov 14, 2016, 5:46 PM
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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So far we're undefeated after the Georgia win
Nov 14, 2016, 5:55 PM
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If we win out the rest of the year, I think we've got a chance.
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Rock Defender [53]
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CU Guru [1026]
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Re: Nate Silver says 64% and he's never wrong.
Nov 15, 2016, 9:18 AM
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This is great tool for running scenarios. Bottom line for Louisville is that if we beat Wake Forest, they should pull for us in the SC and ACC championship. They don't get in unless we get in.
The playoff is directed to: “Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree.”
"When teams are comparable, the four criteria listed to break the tie are championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes of common opponents. And in a situation where the committee were to consider a team that didn’t win a conference championship, it would have to be “unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.”
What the committee got wrong last year was that they did not use this criteria until the last ranking. That was why teams thought they had a shot to get in to the playoffs but, in reality they did not. A second place team will not likely get in unless the conference's champion gets in and then only if the champions of two other conferences have a couple of losses.
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CU Guru [1047]
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%100 if we win out
Nov 14, 2016, 5:49 PM
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worst #3 best scenario we'll be back at #2. Doesn't really matter though we'll be playing the same game we would have had we won out and won against Pitt. Nothing changes as long as we win out.
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All-TigerNet [10489]
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Re: What % would you put on TiGERS being In Final 4?
Nov 14, 2016, 5:53 PM
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Win out and it's 100%. Lose and it's 0%. We're now playing Russian Roulette
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Russian Roulette? That would make it seem like it's up to
Nov 14, 2016, 5:54 PM
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chance. In reality we control whether we make it or not.
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Orange Blooded [2759]
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if I was on the committee, my top,four as of now would be:
Nov 14, 2016, 5:54 PM
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1. Alabama
2. Clemson (more quality wins out weighs one loss to a team not as good as Penn St)
3, Ohio State (let's see what happens with Michigan)
4. Louisville (their one loss was to a better team than Iowa)
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Rock Defender [57]
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Re: if I was on the committee, my top,four as of now would be:
Nov 14, 2016, 6:12 PM
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Funny how everyone forgets Penn State lost to Pitt
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CU Guru [1374]
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All-In [38422]
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Hunnert , Bill ...
Nov 14, 2016, 6:00 PM
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Juan Hunnert .
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Letterman [279]
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Re: What % would you put on TiGERS being In Final 4?
Nov 14, 2016, 6:14 PM
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100%
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CU Medallion [53754]
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95%***
Nov 14, 2016, 6:21 PM
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Orange Blooded [4048]
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Re: What % would you put on TiGERS being In Final 4?
Nov 14, 2016, 6:27 PM
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Hope we get in and play Louisville on this neutral field ESPN speaks of.
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CU Medallion [60215]
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CU Guru [1322]
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69***
Nov 15, 2016, 10:22 AM
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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If we win out we are in, if we lose again we are out.
Nov 15, 2016, 10:57 AM
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Therefore our odds of getting in are the same as our odds of winning out.
FPI gives us a 74% chance to win out. S&P+ is giving us a 91% to win our next two games, but it doesn't try to predict the ACCCG matchup and put a % on that. Based on other numbers though, i think we would be around 80% to beat VT which puts us around 73% to win out.
Roughly 75% seems reasonable.
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All-In [36450]
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100%
Nov 15, 2016, 11:16 AM
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No way we get left out as a one lost ACC champ. Now if Washington or Michigan hadn't lost then id say our chances go down.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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This is wrong because we don't have a 100% chance of winning
Nov 15, 2016, 11:35 AM
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our final 3 games.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Nevermind, i assume this was under the assumption
Nov 15, 2016, 11:36 AM
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that we have already won out. In that scenario i think we are pretty much 100% as well.
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