Ukraine Military Conflict Update 9 April

Apr 9, 2022, 8:32 PM

I've been out of the net for a few days and have been trying to get caught back up on the war in Ukraine. As most already know the war has shifted to East and South Ukraine where it appears Russia is resetting their overall goals for this conflict. The Russians are aiming to bite off all of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts as puppet states (the LNR and DNR respectively) and I refer to this as the "Donbas Fight". Russia's other goal is to take control of the whole Ukrainian coast all the way to Odessa in the South. The first goal (establish LNR and DNR) may be obtainable but the second goal is in serious doubt.

One of the more interesting developments over the last couple of days was a change to the Russian command structure for the war. Up to this point, part of the reason Russia's operation has been so disjointed is that apparently the command structure for their invasion was essentially the Kremlin sending direct orders to each field Army with no overall theater commander. By my count, Russia started this operation with 10 field Armies (29th CAA, 35th CAA, 36th CAA, 41st CAA, 2nd GTA, 1st GTA, 6th CAA, 8th CAA, 49th CAA, and the 58th CAA). Each of these Russian field Army's had specific/defined sectors of Ukraine for which they were responsible (fairly normal to divvy up terrain with defined boundaries between units). From what I have read, that was about the only normal thing about Russia's command and control (C2) of the invasion. Since there was no overall theater commander (with a huge coordinating staff) to process and coordinate the Kremlin's political strategy into coordinated military objectives, that task fell upon each of the 10 individual Army Commanders as they received instruction from the Kremlin. I cannot express how screwed up that is... It would be like doing Desert Storm without GEN Schwarzkopf and the CENTCOM staff and instead having the White House send instructions directly to individual Army Corps Commanders... A REALLY BAD IDEA...

Apparently this screwed up Russian C2 is part of the reason their operation has been so disjointed because each field Army was acting blindly on their own interpretation of Kremlin orders without any coordination with the guys left, right, and above them. No wonder their logistics and air coordination was a blooming mess... Unfortunately the Russians have finally figured out that "unity of command" is an actual military thing and have now supposedly corrected this abysmal C2 structure and named General Aleksandr Dvornikov (current Commander of the Russian South Military District [South OSK]) as the man in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine. I just hope this is too little too late and that the Russians have squandered so much equipment and manpower that General Dvornikov is unable to turn their current mess around. Time will tell...

As far as the Donbas fight goes... Russia obtained some key terrain when they captured Izyum (Southeast of Kharkiv) several days ago. Currently the Russians are securing the outskirts of Izyum and by all indications are trying to build up a larger force in Izyum to resume offensive operations. Best guess is that once Russia believes they have enough forces they will strike to capture Slovyansk. If the Russians can capture Slovyansk they will be able to really pressure the Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk pocket along the Donets River line.

My gut tells me that Russia is having a hard time building that combat power and every day they wait to go back on the offensive it gives the Ukrainians time to build up their defensive capabilities to deny Slovyansk. I'm fairly certain that Ukraine is already shifting some of the forces they had around Kyiv to the East. I predict that once Russia finally moves out from Izyum they are going to find a bunch of Ukrainian forces armed to the teeth with anti-tank weapons all along the route. We very well could see a major fight coming in this area that may ultimately decide whether Russia can continue towards their Donbas goals. If the Russians fail in this area, their whole Ukrainian invasion operation could end up collapsing.

One of the wildcards that I have not seen any more information about is the Ukrainian 92nd Mech Bde. As of several days ago these guys were just South of Kharkiv in Chuhuiv and were driving East towards the Russian border. Ukraine has been very quiet about these guys and my guess is that they are getting in position to tear into the Russian 6th CAA's northern flank or rear. Everything I've read about the Ukrainian 92nd Mech is that they are a darned good outfit and have been gutting the Russians since day one of this fight. Will be interesting to see where these guys pop up in the future.

The Russians have still failed to conquer Mariupol. The mere fact that they have been unable to close this deal tells me they have taken some serious losses around the city and are hesitant to engage in the street fight it will require. The Ukrainian units in Mariupol (56th MIB, 36th Marine Bde, 12th National Guard Operational Bde, and the Azov Spec Ops Detachment (yes those "neo-Nazi" guys)) have been under constant fire for over 40 days and continue fighting it out with limited food, water, medical support and ammunition. At this point these Ukrainian forces have made the decision to either fight to the death or fight until they are relieved. From a military perspective - facing a group of tough fighters with their backs against a wall that has decided to fight to the death is not the kind of foe you prefer to fight...

In the Southern Ukraine Kherson AO - Ukraine has all but pushed the Russians out of the Mykolaiv Oblast and is threatening the Russian hold on Kherson. The Russian situation around Kherson is starting to have the feel of "failure" and if the Ukrainians can continue to make a push they may be able to send these Russians out of Kherson back to the South side of the Dnipro River...

Here is the most recent ISW update:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

Institute for the Study of War

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments
The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the

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Really hope we get some stuff in there. Yeah, it'd be expensive. What would be just way more expensive would be sitting on our butts, letting Russia rebuild its old Soviet empire, and then wondering the eff hit us in less than five years when the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans, and Iranians all stir up trouble all over the globe and come at our interests all at once, while simultaneously launching an attack on the US dollar, our critical electronic infrastructure, and then throttling our supply of capacitors and semiconductors as China overruns Taiwan and spams the South China Sea with frigates and gunboats and chases our carrier groups out with sheer numerical superiority in missiles.

At that point it's just way too late. We're effed.

That die has been cast, IMHO - it's abundantly obvious the China/Russia Axis is real if unofficial, and we'd do well to confront it head-on now. And hope Marine Le Pen isn't elected in France and doesn't pre-emptively crash NATO for us.

Isolationism and America-first-ism doesn't work when the Axis has already formed and decided it's going to knock you off your perch. Woodrow Wilson found out that a long time back. Evil doesn't just stop on its own. Evil not only doesn't sleep...it also sees no reason why anyone else should, either. Eventually it comes knocking on your door.

Putting America First, IMHO, means, you'd better know who intends you harm...and you'd better do something about it while you can, when the odds are still in your favor. I'm praying we're still self-aware enough as a nation to understand that because I really fear what'll happen if we let this new Axis get on a roll.

As for a Spring Game review...eh. I dunno if I'm going to do one because I dunno if anybody would much like what I have to say. I still like our D, especially our DL. Our young LB's look frisky.

After that...yeesh.

From top to bottom, from coaching to personnel, the offense concerns me. A lot. And I have no idea what Brandon Streeter did to convince anybody he was the man for the OC gig when he'd literally missed and missed badly on his last three QB prospects, and even Trevor Lawrence, despite his once-in-a-generation talent, left Clemson really no better a player than when he came in. I still see a poorly-coached, fundamentally unsound, simplistic, predictable offense that looks like it was written on a dinner napkin, with entire position groups that aren't delivering a square root of their actual potential, archaic passing concepts, and no initiative and creativity whatsoever. Everything is a struggle for them. Hopefully they turn it around bigly by the fall but it sure looks like exactly the same O we had last year...and that was one mighty awful offense we had last year.

Maybe Cade can be for us what Deshaun was following a similar regression in 2014. Here's hoping.

Ukraine Military Conflict Update 9 April

Re: Ukraine Military Conflict Update 9 April

I saw something on that Senate bill a couple days ago

Re: I saw something on that Senate bill a couple days ago

Re: I saw something on that Senate bill a couple days ago

Re: Ukraine Military Conflict Update 9 April

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