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Orange Blooded [4561]
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Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 11:24 AM
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When the COVID-19 pandemic started getting traction in the US, the strategy was to enact social distancing to 'Flatten the Curve' of when we would see peak infections and hospital resources. The theory was that if this went unchecked we would have too many sick people for our hospitals to handle. There were discussions around the difficult decisions to come regarding who would live and who would die because we wouldn't have enough hospital beds, ventilators, ICUs to handle it all.
OK. That's fine. And I get that.
But, no one ever asked "How flat are we shooting for?" At which point in the curve's progression do we say "Mission Accomplished"? Simply put, there are no parameters that indicate when we have done enough. We don't know what victory looks like because it was never defined.
I'm going to use South Carolina as an example. Here are the facts from the government on infection rates and hospital resources. It shows 'the curve'. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-carolina IHME | COVID-19 Projections Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths
The projections for SC are as follows: 4,679 hospital beds available. 592 beds needed at peak. 404 ICU beds available with 146 needed at peak. SC has 8X more beds than needed and almost 3X more ICU beds than needed. The projection, as things stand today, is that SC has flattened the curve so much that there is no danger of a shortage of hospital beds. No one will need to pick who lives and who dies.
The vast majority of states fall into this category. And for those states that are well under the threshold, I would propose that they immediately get back to business as usual. I propose immediately reopening all businesses with no restrictions.
But, this proposal needs metrics and milestones that will allow it to change course as dictated by the data. Should the trendline get within 50% of the peak hospital beds required, that state reverts back to current protocols. For example, if SC's trend line projected a need for 2,335 beds at any point in the future, then SC would immediately revert to current protocols (i.e. social distancing, stay at home orders, etc.).
Any state that can maintain a 'curve' that does not approach a projection of 50% should be normalized immediately.
Addutionally, can someone in authority please define when we have flattened the curve enough. Tell us where the goal line is so we'll know when we've scored! We are currently quarantining healthy people and that is starting to feel a little like tyranny; especially in light of all of the empty hospitals.
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CU Medallion [67614]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 11:31 AM
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Your post is well thought out and logical. But we still dont know jack about how it spreads and why it kills some and hardly bothers others. Until we get a way to immunize or minimize the impact I'm staying put. We're in the high risk category and I'm just not going to blindly go back out because a model says a number is low. I'm going to need to see a lot more knowledge on this medically than we have now.
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Legend [16646]
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Requesting 'someone in authority' on T-Net is an
Apr 16, 2020, 11:40 AM
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Open invitation for the likes of classof1994®, Francis Marion®, Tigerbalm1®, deadsolidperfect®, and others among the host of 'experts' residing here. Heck, while he's short on expertise, apparently, even cutigerbob® will likely chime in. So...ask yourself, how much 'wisdom' can you absorb? 
Gotta love this place!
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110%er [7219]
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All-In [40719]
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People like you need to stay home.
Apr 16, 2020, 11:42 AM
[ in reply to Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal ] |
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People like me need to continue working. Low risk people need to keep our economy and society going. Our only way out of this thing any time soon without destroying our society is to build herd immunity. We can’t have everyone living off of the public treasury with hardly anything coming back in. Will there be some deaths and hospitalizations among healthy people who go back to work? Yes, there are unfortunate exceptions to the rule but we don’t do the same for car accidents or the flu because the benefits outweigh the risks. I think we know enough about this virus now to make that call for the greater good of our society.
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Hall of Famer [22257]
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Except that you have some control over car accidents and the
Apr 16, 2020, 12:54 PM
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flu. Safe drivers (don't drive while drunk or on drugs, are very careful & attentive, don't text, no road rage, wear seatbelts, aren't in their wild teen years and still learning, aren't speed freaks & take chances, etc) are MUCH LESS likely to get killed. You have a good bit of control over whether you live or die. I'm 63 and haven't had a wreck since I was 19. COVID-19 is totally random. A blind-folded man is rolling the dice on your life. Something as simple as a trip to Publix could kill you.
I could isolate and do everything right, and still die because you were itching for the dice.
The regular old flu is different, too. It's MUCH LESS contagious and we have vaccines that are pretty darn effective. Unless you're one of the people I mention in my signature. The flu has never shutdown NYC and created the need for mass graves.
If you could roll the dice for yourself only, and sign up your parents & grandparents to be the only "statistics"... yeah, I'd say go for it.
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All-In [40719]
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I knew someone would do this.
Apr 16, 2020, 1:34 PM
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Apparently you misunderstand me. You are in a high risk category because of your age. Stay at home. Get stimulus money while I work and help foot the bill. I’m not comparing the overall effect of corona on the general population to the flu or driving either. I’m comparing the effect of corona on people with no underlying health conditions to the effect of flu or driving on the general population. We can’t keep going like this. What will keep us from a total economic and social collapse if we do? The benefits of putting low risk people back to work outweigh the risks of doing what we are doing for another 18-24 months.
And the part with signing up my family to be statistics is way out of line especially in the context of what I actually said. Young and healthy people fight wars. Let us fight and assume the risks to keep the vulnerable safe.
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Hall of Famer [22257]
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Look, I get it. I know we can't do this for 12 months. Even
Apr 16, 2020, 2:13 PM
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another month or two is going to risk a breakdown, both social and economic. We can't spend forever just to keep everybody from going homeless. I get it. But it's just been a month. We've almost got to give it a little more time to see if we can flatten the curve. You might be lucky and be asymptomatic or just get a mild case. But you're still spreading it around for people like me to catch. Or somebody older (I'm 63). Or somebody quite young who has a health issue like bronchitis, asthma, diabetes, etc that should have many more years to live. This stuff can be a death sentence for them.
I don't know the answer. I have no idea what the "happy medium" is, and how or when we gotta crank everything up again. I'd hate to have to make that call. But it's coming.
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All-In [40719]
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Re: Look, I get it. I know we can't do this for 12 months. Even
Apr 16, 2020, 2:26 PM
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Let me clarify a little better here. I think that you or anyone else who is vulnerable needs to remain in quarantine or whatever safety measure you take until we can develop herd immunity or a SAFE vaccine. You guys need to be the beneficiaries of the stimulus bill while the rest of us keep society going. Will some of us die? Yes but the percentage of people without underlying health conditions dying from corona virus is extremely low and even lower than what the statistics tell us because a lot of people have it and never find out. It’s a risk that I am willing to take for the common good and have been fortunate enough to take this whole time. I have a lot of people in my life that I have missed since this thing started but I am protecting and to an extent serving them just like I would you.
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Orange Blooded [2663]
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Re: People like you need to stay home.
Apr 16, 2020, 2:36 PM
[ in reply to People like you need to stay home. ] |
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"We can’t have everyone living off of the public treasury with hardly anything coming back in."
###### right. We reserve that for corporations.
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All-In [40719]
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If you tax the top 1% for 100% of their money it won’t pay for what
Apr 16, 2020, 3:55 PM
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we are doing right now. Go ahead and take all their money. We will all be in worse shape than we’ve ever been in. Ask any Russian immigrant how that system works. I have and they are all vehemently opposed to it.
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Orange Blooded [2926]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 11:43 AM
[ in reply to Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal ] |
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Just curious, what if there is no magic Vaccine or a way for immunity for several years, do you stay put ? I don’t know the answer, just wondering what others thoughts were.
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Orange Blooded [4561]
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Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory.
Apr 16, 2020, 11:52 AM
[ in reply to Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal ] |
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I've told my mother (who is in her 70s) to stay home and skip church. She doesn't like it, but she does it. That just good common sense. We didn't need to government to mandate that for her.
And, that's kind of the rub here. There's this restriction on Liberty from the government with no definition as to when that restriction will be removed. Even though the restriction seems logical, it is still an infringement on our individual liberty and that should enrage Americans.
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Orange Blooded [2926]
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Re: Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory.
Apr 16, 2020, 11:57 AM
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Wholeheartedly agree
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Hall of Famer [22257]
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I do understand your point of view. I apologize if my previous
Apr 16, 2020, 1:18 PM
[ in reply to Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory. ] |
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post seemed a bit snarky. Sorry about that. I just think we're still too early in this thing to pull the plug on the shutdown. No, we can't do this forever... I get it. But it's only been a few weeks. I look at it this way: My dad grew up on a farm picking cotton and plowing behind a mule, living in a house with no electricity or running water. Then he got to grow up during the Great Depression and get a bag of apples for Christmas. Then go fight in WW2...
I think I can manage to hunker down a while longer in my house.
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Orange Blooded [4561]
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You're illustrating my point
Apr 16, 2020, 4:43 PM
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You feel like it's too early to stop doing what we're doing? OK. Why? And how will you know when we've done it long enough? I'm looking for facts, not emotional reactions.
You said we've only been doing this for 2 weeks. As of tomorrow, my business will have been shut down / office closed for 6 entire weeks. Next week, we'll entire week 7.
The PPP money is GONE. My company applied and that's all I know. I have to make payroll twice a month. If the Democrats stop trying to block Republicans on infusing more money into the PPP for Small Businesses, then maybe I'll get a low-interest loan and be able to make payroll for another 2.5 months. Otherwise, there will be terminations and those employees will go from taxpayers to living on the government.
It is not unreasonable for one to ask "What needs to happen for this to end?"
It is also not unreasonable for people who own small businesses to be extremely upset while sitting at home and watching their livelihoods get destroyed.
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110%er [5236]
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Legend [15492]
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Re: Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory.
Apr 16, 2020, 3:01 PM
[ in reply to Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory. ] |
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I've told my mother (who is in her 70s) to stay home and skip church. She doesn't like it, but she does it. That just good common sense. We didn't need to government to mandate that for her.
And, that's kind of the rub here. There's this restriction on Liberty from the government with no definition as to when that restriction will be removed. Even though the restriction seems logical, it is still an infringement on our individual liberty and that should enrage Americans.
With respect, when your 'individual liberty' endangers others, it is no longer a liberty.
Think screaming 'fire!" in a crowded theatre. That individual liberty doesn't exist.
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CU Medallion [56602]
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Re: Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory.
Apr 16, 2020, 4:31 PM
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If you protest the tea tax, the Red Coats will come and kill some of us. The blood of those you’ve thus murdered will then be on your hands. We don’t want this war and will happily submit to King George, grovel on our knees and lick his boot, and you have no right to imperil us.
Safety always trumps so-called Liberty.
Always.
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Orange Blooded [4561]
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But, how do you know?
Apr 16, 2020, 9:31 PM
[ in reply to Re: Staying Put should be optional, not mandatory. ] |
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How do you know that my individual liberty would endanger you? By what measurement?
You have the right to stay at home and shelter in place.
If I promise not to come to your house, would you feel safer? Does my staying in my house, and you in yours, make you safer still? What am I missing here? I very much support your decision to stay at your house, as you should support my decision to leave mine. Individual liberty works for everyone. The difference between us, it seems, is that you depend on the government to tell you how to exercise your liberty. ?????
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All-TigerNet [10589]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 17, 2020, 9:45 AM
[ in reply to Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal ] |
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People still have to use common sense like they should with all other diseases or transferable maladies. This one is more powerful and more caution should be required. I'm not going to go places where I think there is too much risk, but that should be my decision as I am mostly responsible for my own health. I do not say "completely" because there is some risk in everything we do and do not have control over it ..... like going to a doctor's office or dentist where you have no control over who might have brought a virus into that setting. I just cancelled my teeth cleaning and moved it to October and will do so again if I feel uncomfortable. Just be smart.
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110%er [5007]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 11:41 AM
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It's one thing to have enough beds, ICU rooms and ventilators for everyone who needs one, but it's another thing entirely to make a decision that allows them to be utilized just because they're available. Allowing risk to fill one more room than we otherwise could avoid puts somebody at risk..... possibly risk of death.
Accepting that risk to the extent of available rooms and equipment is saying that it's OK to fill those rooms so long as we have them available. I don't think we should live in a bubble, but until the populace shows we can manage the threat in a responsible and predictable manner, I don't want to rush into a risk circumstance just because medical care is available if needed, because some of those cared for will die.
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Orange Blooded [2420]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 6:46 PM
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AIDS is still here too. Just saying. Pick your poison.
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All-TigerNet [12976]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 11:55 AM
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Based on tigernet’s experts, no one is following the rules, but when the curve is flattened they will claim the rules are working.
Also, everyone that works at Lowe’s or a fast food window should be dead by now.
My own research found that if you live in Seneca you need to be hiding from tornadoes not covid.
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Orange Blooded [2420]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 2:28 PM
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I agree. You days are numbered and there isn’t one thing you can do differently. Some die and others live to die in a car wreck or heart attack, etc. if it’s your time, it’s your time! Be safe. Praying for y’all.
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CU Guru [1650]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 2:54 PM
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I agree. You days are numbered and there isn’t one thing you can do differently. Some die and others live to die in a car wreck or heart attack, etc. if it’s your time, it’s your time! Be safe. Praying for y’all.
Truth be told, if you live to die in a car wreck, heart attack, etc. then the autopsy report and death record will still say COVID 19. Some reports say that of the US deaths as much as 40% of the deaths never tested for the virus but showed one or more signs of the virus prior to death. Dr. Birx even said as much in a recent address. Until we have a vaccine and you die in a hospital then there is a good chance that you will die from COVID.
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110%er [5249]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 12:09 PM
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As long as when business-as-usual is allowed, the people who go out must be tested and regularly. The virus has such a long potential asymptomatic period while still being infectious, if everyone goes out and returns to normal, if one of them gets it from helping someone who decided to stay at home, or from someone during their essential food run, that it's now back to like we were mid March, just on a slightly smaller population size.
The trendline you talked about (staying under 50% capacity) can only be tracked if people regularly test as this is something than can spread without any indicators. And we seem to be barely able test those who are legitimately sick, much less test everyone to get an accurate trendline. Not being sick Thursday doesn't mean I won't get sick Saturday and spread it to someone Sunday.
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110%er [5082]
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not disagreeing with you at all - but
Apr 16, 2020, 12:29 PM
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the projections that you reference are "COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"
Now, I don't necessarily think that "social distancing" is the magic variable that dictates outcome of this or any model for the bug. There are literally dozens of variables and potential variables. One can only make assumptions - which of course creates error - which is exponentially compounded by the multiple unknown variables.
So - ain't nobody knows.
However, we are a country of fighters (for the most part) and not a bunch of 'run away and hiders' (see France for that) - ergo, the American natural reaction is to go take this head on an whoop its ###.
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All-In [27353]
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as of right now
Apr 16, 2020, 12:54 PM
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Not enough is known about this virus to make any kind of predictions about the course it may take. Obviously it is lethal to many. Do you think that this was a natural occurrence or was it created. Good question I think!
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110%er [6878]
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Re: as of right now
Apr 16, 2020, 1:09 PM
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I think China had a little oopsie.
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All-In [27353]
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Re: as of right now
Apr 16, 2020, 1:22 PM
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I have thought that for a long time. I wonder if we will ever know the answer.
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CU Guru [1991]
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Re: as of right now
Apr 16, 2020, 3:38 PM
[ in reply to Re: as of right now ] |
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It wasn't created in a lab, enough experts across the world have looked it enough to reasonably say that. But it is possible that China had discovered it, was studying it without sharing that it had hopped species, and had the oopsie.
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Orange Blooded [4561]
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Fair point
Apr 16, 2020, 4:48 PM
[ in reply to not disagreeing with you at all - but ] |
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I think the argument could be made using any peer-reviewed model. I picked that one because it seems comprehensive in tracking the metrics that justified our current strategy.
My proposal doesn't care about: 1) model used. 2) % of projected beds required (i.e. it could be 50% or any other number). 3) Anything else.
I just want to use the data to make decisions and be clear and transparent about our goals as a society. My personal frustration comes from the vagueness of the strategy.
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CU Guru [1012]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 2:55 PM
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Thank you for the data.
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Legend [15492]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 2:57 PM
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That is a very rational presentation and I appreciate the research. Roughly the same numbers hold true for NC as well.
But here's the hard part. These projections are based on our current situation. Sheltering in place and social distancing. If we remove those, how does that affect the projections?
We're sort of ###### if we do and ###### if we don't. For myself, I think we can't do too much testing. In my view it is the only way to free up life. If we could identify the infected, isolate them from the population. Contact-trace there previous weeks and test those.
It seems to me that unless we do massive testing, it's possible we'll get our heads shot off every time we stick it out the window.
Right now we don't know who has it and who doesn't. We're the only country, heavily infected so far, that has tested less than 1% of our population. We have disproportionately high numbers. We have more infections than anywhere in the world and are in the top 10 of infections per capita.
If we can spend $12 Billion for an aircraft carrier, how many test kits can we produce for the same amount of money?
This is a scary time and a difficult problem. I am perfectly willing to be wrong about my conclusions.
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All-Pro [661]
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Re: Flattening the Curve: A proposal
Apr 16, 2020, 4:39 PM
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The testing theory is nice in theory but a total fantasy. You can’t test 300 million people on a daily basis and track the contacts of thousands of sick people.
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