Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Sep 6, 2021, 2:54 AM

as bad as last night's loss stung, it's still early in the year and alot of football left. I feel that if the team can get back on track over the next couple weeks and end the month 3-1, we can get the momentum going to make another run through the ACC. Winning the ACC and making at least NY6 berth are still very reasonable goals, but I do feel a run for a 7th straight CFP berth got the brakes pumped on it with last night's loss and with how the ACC has performed this weekend, which will affect an already shaky perception of the league going into the year. The ACC is the only league outside the SEC that hasn't been left out of the CFP yet, but that might be on very shaky ground. If we slip or stumble anywhere else along the way, then Clemson/ACC is out. Our boys manage to run the table and finish the regular season with just this loss, then here are the factors that determine if we're playing in Dallas/Miami or not.

Unfortunately is probably gonna happen: 2 SEC teams get in. If you have 2 undefeated SEC teams going into SECCG, I definitely feel this will happen. I don't see anyone touching Bama this year, so we could about pencil them in unless something catastrophic happens with them. However, the SEC East hasn't been able to produce an unblemished division champ since '09 (Florida going into SECCG)...if a blemished SEC East champ is produced and gets beat by Bama in SECCG, then expect a SEC West team who's only loss is to Bama to be getting serious consideration if there is one at end of regular season. Even if Georgia drops 2 games, if final spot came down to them & us, the committee will probably give them the nod due to head-to-head result.

Most plausible route to help get 1-loss Clemson in: 2-loss B12 & P12 champs. The Pac-12 has been 1 of those leagues where anybody can beat anybody else any given game. Since the CFP Era, 5 of the 7 P12 champs have had multiple losses. So if that trend ends up repeating, that removes them from the equation. The B12 will be more troublesome, as they've only produced 2 multi-loss champs twice in this era (1 of those being last year). But again, it has at least happened to them so not out of realm of possibility. Also is the added issue of Oklahoma & Texas' impending departure to the SEC. I have a feeling that everyone that is capable is gonna be giving those two their best shot on the way out the door, and OU and Texas is gonna want to leave on highest notes possible. Will that be enough to ensure that there isn't a worthy contender coming out the B12CG come selection Sunday?

The monkey wrenches: Notre Dame and Cincinnati.
*Notre Dame has the schedule that if they go undefeated they're in; and with 1-loss they'll still be firmly in the conversation. They get UNC, USC, and Cincy at home, VT & Stanford on the road, and have a defacto home game at Soldier Field against Wisconsin. FSU could've helped us out big with a win this weekend, but alas wasn't meant to be. If the Irish navigate their schedule and don't have more than 1 loss, we probably lose out to them in the committee room, especially if the SEC eats up 2 CFP bids.

*Cincy has a #8 preseason ranking and were just a few plays away in the Peach Bowl from having a perfect season last year. They also have 2 prime opportunities to bolster their resume this year - at Indiana (which based on their game against Iowa is probably not gonna be as good as last year, but still a P5 opponent) and at Notre Dame. If they win those games and are able to run the table in the American, they could have a legit shot of getting a CFP bid IMO.

The Wildcards:
* does the B10 champ get a blemish or 2. I think B10 is Ohio State's to lose - they've been the class of the league for years now and they've gone thru past 2 seasons undefeated in the regular season. & I think the game at Minnesota will probably be their "straighten up & fly right moment". I don't know if the B10 champ is gonna get left out, especially if its the Buckeyes continuing their run of the past 2 seasons. The only way I see the B10 getting left out would be a multi-loss West Division champ upsetting an undefeated/1-loss Ohio State in the B10CG.

* COVID - seen someone on Reddit CFB say it in a comment on a post and really gotta agree with him. With COVID affecting everything last year, there's truly alot of unknowns with alot of teams about how good they really are (outside of Bama apparently) and with how players/teams are gonna react to playing in front of large crowds again after a year in sparse/no crowds. Gotta think, last night DJU and whoever else were true freshmen last year were playing in front of the largest and loudest crowd in their college careers. And COVID is still hanging over this season; we (not just Clemson but everyone in general) could see games get affected by the virus, either with key players being out or teams having to cancel/forfeit games due to insufficient personnel. COVID is probably gonna affect some potential contenders along the way and heaven knows how the CFP committee will try to take that into consideration when that happens. Hopefully we can avoid any major COVID issues as the year progresses.

Again, alot of season has to play out. Only thing our coaches and players can do is wipe the blood from their mouths, get back to work, and take it one game at a time. As for us, only thing we can do is put on our orange gear,cheer our ***es off watching our Tigers play, and hope that our boys pick up the wins and get better as the season goes on.

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A one loss Clemson team gets in over:
Any two loss team

A one loss Oklahoma team- their OOC games are weak. They should have up a ton of points to Tulane. They can’t help this, but Nebraska is terrible. If Iowa State loses to Iowa, they won’t have a marquee win. They have zero wins in the CFP and get blown out most years. They won’t get the will get punished by some committee members for bolting to the SEC.

A one loss Notre Dame team

A one loss Cincy team- The Cincy/ND game might be a play in game for the CFP.

A one loss Clemson team probably gets n over a zero loss Sunbelt team.

We won’t get in over:
Any Power Five conference champ or an undefeated Cincy

A One loss GA, Fla ( don’t see this happening) or Bama.

A one loss non SEC Champ TX A&M if their one loss is a close game.

A one loss PAC 12 champ

A one loss Big Champ

A one loss Iowa State team if Iowa has a good season

A lot of things have to happen for us to get in. This is the earliest Clemson has lost a game during the Playoff run. This is the best team we have lost to in the playoff run. We won’t have any quality wins but an 11-0 run to end the season is an 11-0 run. The only team to lose the opener and make the playoffs was the Ohio State team who lost to a mediocre Va Tech team and then won it all at the end.

I just hope of things don’t work out and we end the season with 1 loss but in the Orange Bowl, we play someone like Florida. I can’t see Clemson fans getting excited about playing someone like Cincy, a Cinderella Sunbelt team not named Coastal, or Oklahoma/Auburn yet again.

Someone said Clemson fans are spoiled, that is true. I took my family to the Orange Bowl when we played Ohio State. There is no novelty or excitement about going to Miami or playing in The Orange Bowl for us. It would have to be a compelling matchup for us to go to the game. I am not sure what I would see as a compelling matchup to see would be what the committee sees as a compelling matchup foe TV viewers.

Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Correct, The Last Thing We Should Be Thinking About

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

My question is.....

The most difficult part is Clemson winning out….

The most difficult part is Clemson winning out….

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Re: Factors for any CFP hopes moving forward

Yes I know still early & yes a bunch of stuff that needs addressed

Re: Yes I know still early & yes a bunch of stuff that needs addressed

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