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Orange Blooded [2418]
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Conference Expansion thoughts... (Long)
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Feb 27, 2023, 9:36 AM
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Okay so FSU and Clemson have both fired public warning shots to the ACC about the need for change. Have they found some legal wiggle room in the GoR to feel better about making these statements with 13 years left on the contract?
Most people automatically assume Clemson and FSU would be an automatic take for the SEC. I think the conference would take them if the numbers worked but there is a problem. ESPN has the contract for the SEC & the ACC.
ESPN is paying SEC schools around $60 million (and climbing) per school
ESPN is paying ACC schools around $30 million (not climbing) per school
Why would ESPN give the SEC more money to add Clemson and FSU when they already have Clemson/FSU at half the price?
In the negotiating room, I think ESPN would be reluctant to support the SEC adding Clem/FSU because it's cheaper to keep us where we are and it would destabilize the ACC network which they are invested in. Plus it doesnt take a bite out of Fox at all which is who they are at war with.
That brings me to my next point:
What does Fox want?
Fox wants to be a player in college football.
Where do most of the championships come from in college football? The southeast.
Therefore.. where does Fox want to be?
I feel like the most likely scenario for Clemson/FSU to move is a move by a Fox backed conference to invite the two schools (or more).
If the B1G came offering Clemson,FSU, Miami and UNC an invitation for a southern pod, things at that point would get really interesting. Fox would offer a ton of money to get some quality names in the SEC's footprint...
This brings me back to ESPN:
They would now have incentive, from a defensive perspective, to protect their stranglehold on the Southeast footprint to support the SEC inviting some ACC schools. It could then become a bidding war between Fox and ESPN to see who goes where and how much more each conference gets.
A similar scenario would be the football ACC schools breakaway and form a small conference with heavy funds backing from Fox or NBC or CBS.
I think this could take a long time to play out... but aside from all the hearsay.. this fits the actual facts that we know and it follows the money which we all know is what drives it all anyway.
ESPN owns Clemson/FSU for cheap, they dont need them to move.
Something else has to get this started but once it does, it is on. It could play out a lot of different ways but its going to be something similar to this.
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All-TigerNet [10807]
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Re: Conference Expansion thoughts... (Long)
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Feb 27, 2023, 10:08 AM
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TV ratings? More money to be made? Adding Clemson and FSU to the SEC and having them play games against the larger ratings grabbing SEC teams adds to their inventory of highly rated games vs games like BC and Clemson or Duke and FSU which no one cares about. A game like Clemson/UGA every year is a winner. Look at the big deal that was made of it two years ago.
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110%er [8203]
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Re: Conference Expansion thoughts... (Long)
Feb 27, 2023, 10:21 AM
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I like the move to the Big. Clemson would be subsumed in the SEC, but would remain distinct in the Big as a southern school, creating a variety in the Big's scheduling. But you're right, it would threaten espn's stranglehold on the Southeast.
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Legend [16058]
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GREAT POST! Things will get interesting and we are in the..
Feb 27, 2023, 10:23 AM
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Catbird Seat. Nothing to worry about.
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CU Medallion [64953]
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Catbird seat? More like we are sitting in a deck chair on
Feb 27, 2023, 10:25 AM
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the Titanic, and the ACC already hit the iceberg.
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Orange Blooded [2418]
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Re: Catbird seat? More like we are sitting in a deck chair on
Feb 27, 2023, 10:42 AM
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Well we are in a precarious spot. I think though.. we have value, its just how long will this GoR hang around our necks and what will the landscape be when we can finally get out of it.
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Oculus Spirit [93604]
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ESPN has nothing to do with which conference expands...
Feb 27, 2023, 11:11 AM
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and which one contracts. They may have influence but imagine the opportunity to airing FSU/BAMA or Clemson/UGA during the middle of the season.
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Orange Blooded [2418]
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Re: ESPN has nothing to do with which conference expands...
Feb 27, 2023, 11:26 AM
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I ultimately think they have a lot to do with it... because the SEC will go to ESPN and say "If we add Clemson and FSU... what would that add to our TV contract?"
If the addition adds enough that each school gets more money... its a go
If the per-school pay out goes down... its a no-go.
If ESPN doesnt want Clem/FSU to move, then they will not offer enough of an increase for the SEC to want to do it.
Now some of the matchups of adding Clem and FSU could help get it closer, but ESPN also wants the ACC network to have inventory people watch and, lets face it, losing Clemson and FSU would be a big blow.
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Legend [16213]
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Nice thoughts on the network angle.
Feb 27, 2023, 11:42 AM
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I wonder if ESPN's contract with the ACC has a school attachment to it as well? As in, if a simple majority could dissolve the ACC, would that then free all programs up from ESPN, or would there still be some kind of rights tie in place? If not...
Rather than siphoning off only several programs for an even larger SEC or B1G and not anywhere close to calling our own shots, why not just reform as a new league altogether and get a FOX on board from the get go? Something like a Big Atlantic? It could have a premier football division which would generate the greater share of revenue, then a 'champions' division to complement and keep the entire east coast aligned with football scheduling and all other sports. Geography is really vital for a healthy college athletics foundation. This could protect that.
Expansion could add maybe a West Va up top, and then G5 programs that compete in football and are strong in other sports to fill out the bottom division. Top division football programs could keep up financially with the Joneses, while the others stay healthy enough to maintain their current football investment levels yet adequately fund their other athletics commitments.
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Orange Blooded [4603]
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Re: Conference Expansion thoughts... (Long)
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Feb 27, 2023, 11:55 AM
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All this talk about change in college football alignment is making me dizzy. I know they have to think “long term” since the ACC TV deal sucks so bad and they are locked in. Virtually every sport in the ACC is down and I think we can thank our previous commissioner, John Swofford, for that. May his light blue UNC casket burn in hell for the way he destroyed the ACC during his tenure. But I digress……
Wouldn’t it be nice if these "powers that be” could get together and do the following in the short term:
1) Move Vandy over to the ACC where it fits.
2) Place Texas & OU in the SEC West
3) Move Bama & Auburn to the SEC East.
4) Bring in Clemson & FSU to the SEC East
Then you would have an SEC West vs. SEC East that squares off perfectly on a map.
You would also enhance preexisting rivalries like Clemson-Bama, Clemson -UGA, Clemson-TN, Clemson-SC, Clemson-AUB, Clemson-FSU, etc., etc. The same would happen for Bama, FSU, UGA, TN, and Florida as they would be required to play division rivals every year. No more UL-Monroe, et.al., on the schedules. All great games all year. Any team that could survive that schedule would have to be a champion.
I know it will never happen because it makes too much sense but it was a nice thought..
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Hall of Famer [22168]
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I have no idea what the complex negotiations are.
Feb 27, 2023, 4:52 PM
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But, consider this:
ESPN is paying ACC 420 mill per year (14X30).
1. Assume 4 teams left the ACC and headed to SEC. ESPN would, theoretically, have to pay each 60 mill per year. That would be 240 mill.
2. Assume the ACC dissolved (other teams going to B1G, Big 12, AAC, etc.)
3. ESPN would have 180 million left from their defunct ACC agreement to spread among the other conferences where the others went (and they had TV rights to those conferences).
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