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Replies: 39
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110%er [7169]
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CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 4:36 AM
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1.UGA
2.Ohio St
3.Tenn
4.Michigan
5.TCU-BAMA-OREGON-USC-Not Clemson because everyone freaking out on TNet says strength of schedule not good enough for 8-0 Clemson.
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Orange Blooded [2203]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 4:58 AM
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I'm less concerned about strength of schedule and more concerned about winning out. Both Notre Dame and Louisville looked great yesterday. These next two games are far from automatic wins.
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Orange Blooded [3950]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 1:36 PM
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Louisville got like 35 points off 6 turnovers. Not ready to give them credit yet. WF just imploded.
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Legend [18784]
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I am some where between you two.
Oct 30, 2022, 7:09 PM
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I mean Lousiville also caused 6 TOs which is more than we could do, right?
Besides, who's been an easy out for us this year?
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CU Guru [1921]
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Re: I am some where between you two.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:28 PM
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Louisville played great pass D against a very accurate passer.
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Orange Blooded [2987]
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Re: I am some where between you two.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:41 PM
[ in reply to I am some where between you two. ] |
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We haven't blown anyone out this year except Furman. We haven't had a big enough lead to get 3rd and 4th string QBs on the field except for 1 game. Previous years when we were rolling, we would have had multiple games where the Hunters (J&H) would have had some playing time by this time in the season. We are not rolling the 40pt leads we become custom too. But a lot of that is the defensive issue by not getting teams off the field. So much for our #1 defense in the nation!
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110%er [5473]
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Re: I am some where between you two.
Oct 30, 2022, 9:01 PM
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It’s pretty clear our D is not what it used to be.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: I am some where between you two.
Oct 31, 2022, 10:34 AM
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:13 PM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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And Notre Dame had a great matchup against Cuse for the way ND is built. We also gave ND the blueprint to beat them.
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Orange Blooded [4447]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:05 PM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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Yes. Both are peaking and beating Clemson would make their poor seasons so much better. They will be highly motivated against us. Our underperforming defense has me concerned. On paper we have maybe the best defensive players we have ever had but the performance has been inconsistent all year. I put this at the feet of Wes.
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All-In [31200]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 6:00 AM
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Can’t argue with that list. I do believe a 1 loss Bama team (which lost to Tenn at home) is better than an undefeated Michigan team. That will work itself out in a few weeks with their game with OSU.
Watching the top teams yesterday I feel we are a couple of 5 stars short this year. We are for the most part very solid but still have room for improvement. OSU, Tenn and Ga all looked very good yesterday. Did not catch the 2nd half of the Michigan game so I cannot really speak on that game but thought it would have been closer.
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All-Pro [657]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 6:15 AM
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We have more 5 stars than Michigan and Tennessee! ..so that's not the problem...
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All-In [31200]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 6:22 AM
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Well just going off what I seen yesterday minus Michigan I felt a 5 few stars would help us against what I was watching yesterday.
I did not think Tenn had been recruiting better than us unless I have missed something. They must have some transfers. They looked to have speed on both sides of the ball.
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Head Coach [798]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 7:54 AM
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Clemson needs a deep threat to emerge. We did not have all world Offense Lines when we were winning CFB Championships, what we did have was multiple deep threats who could take the top off a defense. That is the big difference right now. TN has some great pieces in an effective offensive scheme. They don’t have much talent on defense. Michigan is good in the trenches.
That would be an interesting matchup that I don’t expect to see.
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Orange Blooded [3290]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:05 AM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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Tenn got an almost Joe Burrows 2.0 in Hendon Hooker from V Tech. That is the difference right now. We will see if he is the real thing next week.
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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CU Guru [1921]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:32 PM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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We talk a lot about the talent but I think we don't always use them in the best ways. Theoretically we should be destroying the ACC based on recruiting.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 11:58 AM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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We are missing that ONE GO-TO wide reciever who will go up and get the big catches that we need to spread out the defense.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 7:34 AM
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Clemson's schedule to this point has been better than Michigan. In the CFP ranking my call is
1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Tennessee
4) Alabama
5) Clemson
6) Michigan
I still say that the one's on the CFP do not go by SOS, quality wins, metrics or even eye test. They go by gut feeling and then figure out how to justify it afterwards.
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:24 PM
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I don’t think you can put Bama at 5. Let’s not forget they could easily have 3 loses and they do have 1. Take the name Bama away and no one would rank them in the top 4. Their defense this year is not super.
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Legend [16430]
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Two things I care about
Oct 30, 2022, 7:52 AM
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1. Keep winning
2. Show me the final ranking
We all know we won’t be in the top 4 with the first release. We just need to keep our heads down, go about our business, and let the uncontrollable stake care of themselves.
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All-In [37746]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 7:59 AM
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1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. OSU
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. TCU
7. Alabama
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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We're gonna be 6
Oct 30, 2022, 8:04 AM
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And it's fine. We just need to keep winning.
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CU Medallion [65037]
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We will be 5th or 6th at BEST in the first rankings. And,
Oct 30, 2022, 8:18 AM
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since the CFP Committee professes to make their rankings based on current time, I got nary an issue with that. My probable would be
1) Treeturds
2) Georgia
3) Michigan
4) Tennessee
5) Clemson
6) TCU
Anything beyond the unbeatens is duck soup at this point, stir them in any order you like.
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All-In [48152]
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Re: We will be 5th or 6th at BEST in the first rankings. And,
Oct 30, 2022, 8:28 AM
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Agree with the right teams but my order would be:
1) Georgia
2) treeturds
3) Tennessee
4) Michigan
5) TCU
6) Clemson
We'll jump TCU and possibly Michigan depending on how we look beating the Domers.
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CU Medallion [65037]
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I like your optimism, but I doubt we jump the Khakis until
Oct 30, 2022, 11:53 AM
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they lose a game. Which may not happen, they may beat the Treeturds for the 2nd year in a row. It would be sweet to jump over the Treeturds, especially if it kept them out of the Playoffs. Cryan Day would scale new heights of teariness should that occur.
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Orange Blooded [4492]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:29 AM
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OH ST
UGA
MI
TENN
TCU***
CLEMSON
BAMA
***Right wrong or indifferent, an undefeated B12 champ jumps undefeated ACC champ after yesterdays epic ACC sheet soiling.
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Legend [16845]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 12:21 PM
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Wrong
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All-Conference [405]
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110%er [5121]
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:37 PM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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Not if it is an undefeated Clemson. And if it does happen it will blow up the current playoff system like within a year.
You are going to tell me 1 of the top programs over the last decade is going to go undefeated and get left out. There is a point where name and recruiting comes into play.
Not to mention TCU’s schedule is not exactly that great either.
If there are 4 undefeated conference champs, which there will not be, they get in. The more likely scenario is we have 1 undefeated maybe 2 and arguing over the 1 loss teams.
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 8:37 PM
[ in reply to Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction. ] |
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Not if it is an undefeated Clemson. And if it does happen it will blow up the current playoff system like within a year.
You are going to tell me 1 of the top programs over the last decade is going to go undefeated and get left out. There is a point where name and recruiting comes into play.
Not to mention TCU’s schedule is not exactly that great either.
If there are 4 undefeated conference champs, which there will not be, they get in. The more likely scenario is we have 1 undefeated maybe 2 and arguing over the 1 loss teams.
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Commissioner [940]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 12:54 PM
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I don't really care if we make it. I think we're really good, but not as good as these top teams. Win the conference, beat the chickens, and I will be very happy.
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110%er [5121]
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Re: CFP 1st rankings prediction.
Oct 30, 2022, 1:39 PM
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1. Tennessee
2. UGA
3. Ohio St
4. Clemson
5. TCU
6. Michigan
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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The committee loves looking at wins
Oct 30, 2022, 7:01 PM
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They value really big wins and also wins vs the top 25 or 40 or whatever arbitrary number they use. So, with that being said, who has the best wins?
1) Tenn vs #6 Bama
2) Georgia vs #8 Oregon
3) TCU vs #13 K State
4) Tenn vs #15 LSU
5/6) Michigan and OSU vs #16 Penn State
7) TCU vs #18 OK State
8-10) Clemson vs #20 Wake, #21 State, #22 Cuse
Not looking at style points or anything here and just using the AP rankings.
Wins vs top 25 teams:
Tenn - 2
UGA - 1
TCU - 2
Mich - 1
OSU -1
Clemson - 3
Wins vs teams receiving votes (basically a top 40):
Tenn - 3
UGA - 2
TCU - 3
Mich - 1
OSU - 2
Clemson - 4
The committee also likes to use the Strength of Record metric. Those look like this:
1 - Tenn
2 - Ohio State (not sure how this works)
3 - TCU
4 - Clemson
5 - UGA
7 - Michigan
So Tennessee has the best combination of wins overall. TCU and Clemson are probably 2nd and 3rd. I'd rate Ohio State and Georgia next and Michigan last by alot.
Now the thing that isn't factored in here is dominance and all that. The committee doesn't like to use straight margin of victory but they do like their game control metric. I'm not sure where to find that. I'd say TCU and Clemsom have easily been the least dominant. TCU has needed many comebacks to stay unbeaten and Clemson trailed for most of the Cuse game, needed OT at Wake, and generally hasn't blown teams out. The other 4 teams have all been pretty dominant.
How the committee factors in dominance and the good old eye test will be interesting.
So I feel pretty confident predicting that Tennessee will be #1 in the first rankings. They have the best combination of wins + eye test. Vegas might not have them favored over OSU and UGA yet, but they will be the committee #1.
After that I'm really not sure. Could Michigan be 6th because of their weak schedule? Could Clemson be 6th because of a lack of elite wins and dominant performances?
I know none of this matters much for our CFP chances, but this will be interesting. Most years the CFP rankings are pretty predictable. This year... not so much.
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Orange Blooded [3740]
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You forget Tenn's close call with ACC bottom dweller Pitt
Oct 30, 2022, 7:48 PM
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They just as easily could have 2 losses just like us. Everybody has had close calls this year except tOSU and Mich.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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True, but their month of October is the most
Oct 31, 2022, 8:19 AM
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impressive thing anyone has done in CFB this year, by far. I don't think they are going to get dinged too much for their week 2 clunker against Pitt.
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Freshman [-79]
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Clemson definitely top 5. Beat ND, and
Oct 30, 2022, 7:07 PM
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we'll be top 4 the next week.
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Commissioner [932]
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Re: Clemson definitely top 5. Beat ND, and
Oct 31, 2022, 11:07 AM
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So the team that came closest to beating the new high and mighty Tenn is from the lowly ACC in Pitt? (Won in OT after Pitt QB went down)
LSU is tied for the lead in the sec west (has a legit shot vs Bama) but has a loss to FSU who is 4th place in the ACC Atlantic?
Tell me again how Clemson’s most wins vs top 25 shouldn’t count because they are in the ACC?
Maybe if we could beat Texas AM we could move up…
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110%er [5627]
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Clemson will be 4th in the first poll. Committee will take
Oct 31, 2022, 11:27 AM
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into account the 3 wins over top 15 teams. Mark it down.
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