to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante. Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself,”
Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.
Chatting eagerly with his famously racist and foul-mouthed boss in March 1973, following an appeal from Golda Meir to press Moscow to allow the emigration of Soviet Jewry, Kissinger is heard on the tapes to say:
"The emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union is not an objective of American foreign policy. And if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American concern. Maybe a humanitarian concern."
I mean, intellectually I get a lot of that, but we still need to send the Orcs scurrying back to Mordor with their tails between their legs. I saw one estimate a couple weeks ago that probably 100,000 Ukrainian civilians had been killed already, many of them casualties of deliberately-targeted artillery fire...but some of them were shot in the back of the head by Russians who seem a lot better at ######, robbing, and murdering unarmed civilians than actually fighting battles. The Russians have obliterated entire cities with indiscriminate shelling, destroyed schools, landmarks, historical and cultural centers, and oh, yeah, stolen entire harvests of grain from some regions and tried to re-sell them on the black market like a bunch of Viking raiders. And just for giggles they'd round up all the cows in a region and slaughter them, just to inflict more misery on Ukrainian civilians.
And Kissinger wants to reward Putin with territorial gains that allows the murderous psycho to successfully wag the dog, have himself a victory parade, and claim victory?
No, Henry, I'm not okay with that. When somebody comes at you like Russia came at Ukraine, you obliterate them, grind them face-first into the dust, and make sure they don't ever want any more, ever again. Period.
The Ukrainians probably do need to stop at some point - and I do think they'll hit the point of exhaustion before they chase Russia completely out of their country anyhow. Guys will willingly defend their homes...but nobody wants to be the last soldier killed in a war...as casualties and the cost of war pile up, as NATO tires of the constant war and instability and economic hardship, I do think the bargaining table will start looking better and better and I do think eventually some sort of accord in the Donbass is going to be reached.
But for lasting peace Russia needs to be administered a stern lesson, and one Putin won't forget anytime soon. I think he's going to receive one. And I think it's pretty much inevitable Russia winds up a client state of China anyhow. Their economy was a relatively paltry $3.03 trillion - of the world's $418 trillion! - which is less than Belgium, Hong Kong - just Hong Kong, not counting China! - Indonesia, Mexica, Switzerland, Taiwan, Australia, Canada....you get the idea.
China, in comparison, is worth $75+ trillion, second only to the US of A. And aside from maybe Hungary and Turkey, the Western world simply isn't going to be willing to trade with Russia after this is over, which is going to leave China and India their only real significant trade partners. The Russians are radioactive as long as Putin remains in office, and even after he's gone the world's going to be supremely leery of re-investing in Russia for a good long while to come. Their brand took a fearful beating. Not since the Nazis has the world really united to declare one nation such a bunch of lepers and viewed them with such unified loathing.
The prevailing wisdom at the time was "domino theory." LBJ kind of summed it up when he said: "if you keep running from the Communists they're going to chase you right back into your own kitchen."
He actually wasn't wrong. The problem was we were trying to force democracy and capitalism on people in Vietnam who didn't want it...and who had a long history of poverty, and of being led, two conditions that make people uniquely susceptible to populist ideologies like Communism.
We tried that in Afghanistan too. They weren't past the tribal phase...and weren't ready for any kind of liberal democracy either.
At some point we need to acknowledge American ideology doesn't work everywhere. It's not even working particularly well here at the moment. We maybe need to clean up our own backyard first....
the Domino Theory is that Communism came about in a country because of forces from outside the country (Russia, China, Cuba), and there was pressure from outside countries that contributed but it mostly depended on conditions inside a country. In Vietnam for example, Ho Chi Minh was a national hero, fought against Japan in WWII, drove out the French...He was elected overwhelmingly in the 1956 elections but John Foster Dulles convinced Ike to not go along with the results and set up a puppet govt. in the South.
1) show me a scenario where russia doesnt get some part of Ukraine, beit the Donbass or Crimea? a) Ukraine cannot keep up the fight indefinitely, no matter how poorly the Russians fight b) the West will lose its resolve to continue sacrificing / paying for the war
2) if 1) is correct, why not speed that up before the winter?