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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Not to crap on 3time's thread any more than I did...
Jul 6, 2022, 11:14 AM
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But for folks who are interested in EVs, (and even those who aren't)..what is the long term plan with owing one? If it's 100% EV..it only has a certain amount of usable life, and when the batteries chit themselves and require replacement, essentially, the car is totaled. Is the idea just to drive one while its in warranty, the dump it? They seem to be the ultimate disposable car.
It's the equivalent of having the fuel system, the engine, and the transmission all go out at the same time in a internal combustion engine powered vehicle.
It seems the deprecation curve is pretty steep for one of those things. Look at the Hummer EV. What's it cost...$120K? More? I still see a few Hummer H2's running around; I know a guy who still has one. It has like 250k miles on it. Granted, its a POS (because GM) and old, but it will probably always be able to pull his 14' boat, get him to the grocery store and gas station.
Will an EV have any residual value once its batteries fail?
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Heisman Winner [119698]
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My younger son has a MachE Mustang that they use around
Jul 6, 2022, 11:19 AM
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Gvegas. It may be on dog biz books. I know the MachE has caught grief for its Mustang connection, but it’s a very nice vehicle and the reviews are now on the rise after the early stang Grief.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Heisman Winner [119698]
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In actuality, all required is a software patch…***
Jul 6, 2022, 11:28 AM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Not for the battery replacement
Jul 6, 2022, 11:43 AM
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You can't software patch worn out ions and spent rare earth metals.
At least not yet.
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All-In [40656]
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I really have to applaud this post
Jul 6, 2022, 11:23 AM
[ in reply to My younger son has a MachE Mustang that they use around ] |
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This has got to be the greatest post in the history of the Lunge at not addressing the topic posed by OP. Never once in your post did you even address the longevity of the vehicle, how to address the battery concerns, or even respond to Ineligible user in any way, shape, or form. In fact, you only spoke about your son and then spun it into talking about a car that is not an EV at all (the Mustang, not the Mach).
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All-In [43673]
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Any post, and I mean ANY post that works in
Jul 6, 2022, 11:26 AM
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book cooking at a relative's doggie daycare gets my full attention.
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Heisman Winner [119698]
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Hey, I’m not bashful***
Jul 6, 2022, 11:33 AM
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Heisman Winner [135579]
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I'll give you props for calling this out because I was just
Jul 6, 2022, 11:31 AM
[ in reply to I really have to applaud this post ] |
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thinking about getting one of the new Boss Katana bass amps, or at least exploring what difference the class AB power amp section would have versus the typical class D power amp in most modern solid-state amplifiers. When all is said and done, nobody is going to turn down a Lance ToastChee® sandwich cracker, really.
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Oculus Spirit [79201]
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Lunge response
Jul 6, 2022, 11:35 AM
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Don't know much about musical amplifiers, but in car audio, class A (or AB) was a lot cleaner sound, but usually not as loud. Class D was cheap power but would play music LOUD.
Hope this halps.
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Heisman Winner [135579]
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I did a lot of reading on the subject, and I also invested
Jul 6, 2022, 11:39 AM
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in a new hat because hats can be a layer of protection against the sun's harmful rays as well as a sort of deflector shield against outdated alien mind-control technology used by third-world terrorists to make people less prone to be brand-conscious when buying condiments for hamburgers or hot dogs.
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Oculus Spirit [79201]
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Hats are good and all, but they provide little protection
Jul 6, 2022, 11:43 AM
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from stray objects flying at your eyes. Did you know that 47% of eye injuries occur in one of two eyes? What's more asstounding is that statistics on eye injuries is not regulated and 22% of them are made up. That's a total of 69%
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Heisman Winner [135579]
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You bring up a good point.
Jul 6, 2022, 12:01 PM
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My son has both a truck and a Jeep and two dogs, none of which are electric.
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All-In [40656]
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Speaking of electrical panels
Jul 6, 2022, 11:42 AM
[ in reply to Lunge response ] |
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Do people continue to buy Square D because they are cheaper or does it make plugging in the vibrating fleshlight easier?
ryanadidas®
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Heisman Winner [119698]
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Crulz, I’m just laughing at your smear
Jul 6, 2022, 11:32 AM
[ in reply to I really have to applaud this post ] |
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First, that all you seem to do with my posts, you got a hard-on with me?
Second, it’s the ####### lunge, the rules are a bit fluid here and You don’t set them, so KMA…
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CU Medallion [56069]
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Tesla had a plan for quick charging stations.
Jul 6, 2022, 11:21 AM
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You pulled up, they yank the battery, pop in a charged one, and off you go. "Swap time was, on average, seven minutes." They eventually scrapped it, but if swapping the battery is that quick and easy, then that solves the problem of what you do when the battery dies.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-shuts-down-battery-swap-program-for-superchargers/ Tesla shuts down battery swap program in favor of Superchargers, for now Tesla’s battery swap station near the Harris Ranch Supercharger station in Coalinga, CA seems to have been shut down, at least for now. What started out as a company vision to recharge Tesla vehicles in the same amount of time, if not quicker, as refueling a gas vehicle, turned into a pilot program that saw little to no […]
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All-In [27119]
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IMO, I think this is the way the industry will head in
Jul 6, 2022, 11:24 AM
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engineering them. Builds that make batteries much easier to swap over their lifespan.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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I always have thought that was the best solution
Jul 6, 2022, 11:25 AM
[ in reply to Tesla had a plan for quick charging stations. ] |
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Even better would be to have standardized battery sizes between automakers that could easily be swapped out.
I did a little reading on it and even mentioned it in here once, and everyone said that it couldn't be done--including the car manufacturers. And since Tesla is building the batteries as a structural part of the car, I guess that makes sense.
I mean, for them.
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All-In [36450]
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That’s what NIO does in China.
Jul 6, 2022, 12:21 PM
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They built battery swap stations throughout the country. When you get low you just go swap it out. Thus the old batteries get junked just like old propane tanks. It works pretty well compared to charger stations.
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Oculus Spirit [75717]
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Hall of Famer [21935]
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subscription model
Jul 6, 2022, 11:22 AM
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better long term revenue for carmakers. probably won't "own" a car in 20-30 years is my guess from way out in left field.
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All-In [27119]
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CaaS***
Jul 6, 2022, 11:27 AM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Thats what they call it***
Jul 6, 2022, 11:28 AM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Manufacturers have been trying to do that for a while.
Jul 6, 2022, 11:27 AM
[ in reply to subscription model ] |
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Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Volvo, Jag, have all done the subscription model to varying degrees of success.
It's going to take a pretty big consumer mindset change to make that ever work out for everyone.
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Orange Blooded [2693]
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Cars in general are the worst investment
Jul 6, 2022, 11:30 AM
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Especially in 2022. Americans are now paying an average monthly of over $700 for a depreciating asset built around a gas platform that is itself on borrowed time. The average mortgage payment on a house is $1800.
How does one compute this kind of delusional logic?
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Most folks have to drive to get places.
Jul 6, 2022, 11:35 AM
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I'd argue that the gas platform isn't going anywhere, at least not for a long long time.
And depreciating asset is questionable at this point. If you could have bought a dozen diesel powered pick up trucks 3 years ago and put them in a barn or something, you have easily beaten the rate of inflation and the stock market by simply reselling them now.
And if car manufacturers DO stop making gasoline powered cars by 2030, or 2035, here's a financial pro-tip: I'd go buy a few of the best selling models the last year they are out. Their value will skyrocket by year 2 or 3 they are out of production.
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Orange Blooded [2693]
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there's no question gas is phasing out
Jul 6, 2022, 1:21 PM
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It will happen slowly at first, then all at once.
The proof of that is in the refinery business. They aren't building more refineries because they cost a billion dollars and even if you finance that over 30 years, it is too much of a gamble to recoup your investment. The demand for product is definitely there now, and it will grow for a few more years, but I think we got at best 20 more years of internal combustion dominance in the market.
As we get closer to that tipping point in say 2032, I truly wonder if you might as well be buying a 3,000 lb paperweight.
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Oculus Spirit [79429]
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There's also the fact there's very little investment money
Jul 6, 2022, 2:40 PM
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flowing into the space thanks to ESG scores and regulations, so it's not exactly market forces driving the lack of investment $$.
I think people vastly underestimate how far away we are from doing away with ICE.
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Hall of Famer [22314]
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Ha... I remember reading a book in the 80's called "How to
Jul 6, 2022, 11:36 AM
[ in reply to Cars in general are the worst investment ] |
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Swim With The Sharks Without Being Eaten Alive. Never forgot one of the quotes... Buy expensive houses and cheap cars, because a house is one of best investments you'll ever make, and a car is one of the worst. It's called appreciation vs depreciation. Still true to this day.
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Oculus Spirit [75717]
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I really, really need to remember this in the
Jul 6, 2022, 11:40 AM
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coming months. While I don't want to settle for something when I buy a truck, I have to remember some of the expensive options aren't really going to be worth it.
I also hope to find a side hustle that helps the truck pay for itself.
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Heisman Winner [135579]
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A lot of the high tech options on vehicles can be nice but
Jul 6, 2022, 11:55 AM
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it's more to break and a lot of it seems aimed at reducing the need for actual driver skills.
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Oculus Spirit [75717]
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What I really want is a 1987 K-10
Jul 6, 2022, 12:05 PM
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Custom Deluxe, but the dash has that 12 inch screen so I can see my google map update in real time, power windows and door locks, and an outlet in the bed. But all those YouTube videos showing the Trailboss with 360 degree cameras are pretty sweet.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Oculus Spirit [85323]
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All-In [27119]
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IT's the $120k luxury kid transporters that blow my mind.
Jul 6, 2022, 11:49 AM
[ in reply to Cars in general are the worst investment ] |
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I sold my C43 last year after I couldn't keep it out of the shop and realized I was paranoid about the toddler making a mess in it, and got a 2013 import SUV. It's slower, older, and the fanciest thing about it is the Finding Dory sticker on the back...but I am immensely happier driving it around not having to worry about dings and scratches, much less throwing dirty #### in the back.
Plus, no car payment.
The idea you would drop $100k+ on a car your kids are going to destroy does not make any sense to me. I suppose the people buying them have money to burn, but still...terrible investment beyond the depreciation.
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Heisman Winner [135579]
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I've owned a LOT of vehicles since 1989...
Jul 6, 2022, 11:59 AM
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which is the last time I made a car payment of any kind.
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CU Medallion [56069]
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And blue chip stocks make for poor transportation.
Jul 6, 2022, 12:00 PM
[ in reply to Cars in general are the worst investment ] |
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Cars aren't intended to be an investment. Food's not a great investment either. And while we're on the topic, I don't really think houses should be considered investments. Long term you may be better off financing by owning versus renting, but typically you don't finance an investment over 30 years.
A house is a home. A car is transportation. Investments are investments.
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CU Medallion [56069]
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*better off financially***
Jul 6, 2022, 12:00 PM
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Orange Blooded [2693]
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I'm fine with driving an M5
Jul 6, 2022, 12:18 PM
[ in reply to And blue chip stocks make for poor transportation. ] |
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but not if I have to eat Ramen five nights a week.
This is as much about psychology as it is utility because cars are the ultimate status symbol, a measure of one's success and driver of self-esteem and identity. Car makers, especially in the luxury market, cater to this phenomena.
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All-In [36450]
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Take a ride through Piedmont SC
Jul 6, 2022, 12:29 PM
[ in reply to Cars in general are the worst investment ] |
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You will see many single wide trailers w a caddy in parked out front, or a BMW, Mercedes. They clearly don’t care they pay way more for their car then the house.
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All-In [26503]
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Ideally ... they will eventually get to the point
Jul 6, 2022, 11:33 AM
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where they will run off AA batteries
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All-In [36450]
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My Dad had a ford SUV hybrid back when they first came out.
Jul 6, 2022, 12:18 PM
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He drove it for some years and then the batteries were done, he only got a small amount of cash selling it bc batteries were so expensive. Pretty much got pooned on that one. Essentially sold it for scrap.
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Heisman Winner [135579]
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The similarities here are eerie.
Jul 6, 2022, 12:25 PM
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MY DAD OWNED AND DROVE VEHICLES TOO!!!
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Orange Blooded [4095]
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Re: Not to crap on 3time's thread any more than I did...
Jul 6, 2022, 12:34 PM
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Real answer:
If you have a really popular hybrid like a Prius, the battery replacement is $2k to $4k because of volume and aftermarket parts.
It's not nothing, but it's reasonable to keep a car 8+ year old car going for a few more years.
and if you have an orphan like an 8 to 10 year old Nissan Leaf, the car is worthless because there isn't a reasonably priced replacement battery and the car is currently only getting 40 miles on a charge.
I had a co-worker sell one for a couple of hundred to an auction place pre-covid.
I would have bought it because I have a kid in high school and the 40 mile range would be a plus for me.
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
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You can get a new battery for the Leaf for ~$5k.***
Jul 6, 2022, 3:47 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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$10 saddle....$5 donkey***
Jul 6, 2022, 4:18 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
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Have you driven any EVs? lol.***
Jul 6, 2022, 4:30 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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I confess to having never been in a leaf.
Jul 6, 2022, 4:38 PM
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I have driven a few hybrids: a prius (lulz) and a friends Escape (bigger lulz) and one other I can;t recall.
I don't really care how fast any of them go, EV or not, because I don't drive fast.
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All-TigerNet [11963]
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8-10 years is how long I typically have kept
Jul 6, 2022, 2:00 PM
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cars in my lifetime. I figure it will be the same with this one. then either I'll trade/sell it or let sonof3time drive it to high school.
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All-TigerNet [11019]
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Ok, I'm gonna wade in here
Jul 6, 2022, 2:03 PM
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I'll be taking delivery on a Fisker Ocean ( https://www.fiskerinc.com/ocean ) later this year.
That said, the warranty on them is that battery will maintain 75% health or more for 10 years, or they'll replace it (see the link above, about 80% down the page).
10 years is far and away the longest I've owned a car - my 2012 Ford Edge was the last car I bought - so I tend to think that's about the range of acceptability.
With Tesla, The battery for the model 3 ranges from 3k to 7k to replace, and the Model X is 13-14k, and these costs continue to come down.
Having worked in EV charging and mobility, I can say there are really a few other, bigger problems to solve over batteries (which are jumping by leaps and bounds, both in charging and recycling technology - the improvements we've made in 5 years make me optimistic for where we'll be in 10 years) - most notably in battery size/weight reduction and in being able to make charging more accessible and practical. Over the next few years, companies want to lower the weight of batteries by 10-20% while keeping the power storage the same or higher. The other piece of all of this is charging speed - EV's are currently impractical for long road trips (500+ miles) unless you want to break for an hour to charge your car (assuming there is an available fast charger in that range) mid-trip, and likely multiple times.
All of that said, I would expect there to still be some residual value in EVs in 10 years, assuming battery technology continues to improve, as it would nullify a lot of the concerns. Would you see it be enough to be worthwhile on a nissan leaf? probably not, but at the higher end it definitely is likely, especially if you can get a battery replacement down to about $1500-$2000.
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
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Eh, I've told him several times now, he doesn't care.
Jul 6, 2022, 3:46 PM
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He thinks you're stranded if you're battery is low, not understanding there's chargers everywhere.
Tesla battery warranty is 8 years / 180k miles.
Congrats on that Fisker, they look good!
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Its not taht I don;t care, i just can;t imagine anyone
Jul 6, 2022, 3:57 PM
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buying a 10 year old anything then putting another $5-8K into a battery.
My v8 4runner is 14 years old. I am planning for a 20 years service life from it. I don't see $5-$8k worth of maintenance AND repair (combined) in the next 6 years.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Ghad my typing***
Jul 6, 2022, 3:57 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
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Confusing how you can completely dismiss one
Jul 6, 2022, 4:02 PM
[ in reply to Its not taht I don;t care, i just can;t imagine anyone ] |
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thing running well past any warranty - your 4Runner, but act like an EV is dead after 10 years. There's many many documented cases of Model S's with hundreds of thousands of miles.
No idea how you have ICE cars without that much maintenance that are that old, other than just simple bullshít.
42k miles on my 2001 Model Y, I've only spent $5 on it, a jug of windshield wiper fluid.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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The 4runner doesn't have a time limited propulsion system.
Jul 6, 2022, 4:09 PM
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I mean unless like some, you think gasoline won't be available in 10 years.
At 110K miles, I have had to put tires, brakes and an 02 sensor on the 4runner. I also had to replace a knock sensor, but that's because a rat ate the wire to it.
I guess Tesla's don't have that problem.
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
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Sure.
Jul 6, 2022, 3:53 PM
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Define long term plan, I typically own a car for 5-6 years, put 150k miles on it, and get a different one. Most EV batteries are warrantied beyond those numbers.
Replacing a battery pack on most modern EVs is about a $8k-12k cost. So if the car is 12 years old and needs a new battery, that's your cost. Replacing fuel system, engine, and transmission costs more than that. Less moving parts, EVs will last longer.
You bring out one of the dumbest EVs for your depreciation curve? lol.
EV with dead battery will be worth about $15k less than one with a good battery.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 56139
Joined: 9/13/04
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"the dumbest EV"?
Jul 6, 2022, 4:06 PM
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No..its just the first one I could think of that had an older gas counterpart...that I'd bet will still have about an equal residual value as the electric one does when it's battery goes TU.
Nobody will be rebuilding 2022 Tesla's in 15 years...unless, as stated, a battery can be had for dirt cheap.
And by that point in time, it might be like data on an old hard drive. The data might be valuable..but what can you read it with. The hospital I used to work with had terabytes of data on old SCSI WORM drives they had to keep for 21 years..from 2010. WTH will they read it with in 2031?
What are you going to charge a 15 year old battery with? The car might have some value...if you can find something that's available everywhere..that will charge 15 year old battery technology.
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 47116
Joined: 3/18/07
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Yeah, the Hummer EV is a stupid EV.
Jul 6, 2022, 4:09 PM
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Nobody will be rebuilding 2022 Tesla's in 15 years...unless, as stated, a battery can be had for dirt cheap. Absolutely they will
And by that point in time, it might be like data on an old hard drive. The data might be valuable..but what can you read it with. The hospital I used to work with had terabytes of data on old SCSI WORM drives they had to keep for 21 years..from 2010. WTH will they read it with in 2031? Huh? Completely irrelevant to an EV
What are you going to charge a 15 year old battery with? The car might have some value...if you can find something that's available everywhere..that will charge 15 year old battery technology. They aren't going to be changing the charging cable and port, and if they do, it will remain backwards compatible.
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