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Associate AD [823]
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CFP - It's Not Complicated
Nov 23, 2022, 7:07 AM
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4 of 5 things have to happen for Clemson the make it. 3 are considered to be likely, or at least odds favor 3 at this point. So it is really down to the last 2 below.
1. Clemson needs to win out. Impressively is preferred but not required. Odds favor this. If this does not happen the rest is irrelevant. If this happens the Committee moves us past Bama. You can debate whether that will happen, but it will happen. A 2 loss non-championship game participant will not stay ahead of a 12-1 ACC champion.
2. UGa needs to beat LSU. Even if only by 1 point, LSU is gone with 3 loses. Odds favor this.
3. OSU needs to beat Michigan. 1 point is fine. Michigan is then gone as a 1 loss, non championship game participant compared to a 12-1 ACC champ. Debate this if want but it isn't debatable. Odds favor this.
4. TCU needs to lose. There are 2 chances, but it will be favored in both. No one is talking about the Iowa State game at ISU. ISU is always tough at home, and almost always pulls off an upset each year. So far it hasn't this year. Odds of TCU losing 1 of these two are 50% I think.
5. USC needs to lose one to either ND or Oregon/Utah. I don't favor this one personally.
If 4 of these happen, Clemson is in as th 4 seed. If all happen Clemson is in as the 3 seed. It's that simple.
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110%er [5082]
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^^^ 100% correct***
Nov 23, 2022, 7:13 AM
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110%er [5082]
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not including the Clemson Win - 2 of these are
Nov 23, 2022, 7:18 AM
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liable to happen this weekend - OSU over Mich / ND over USC
Which will make for an uncomfortable situation of being "Huge Dog Fans" for SEC Champ game. Shudder.
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Orange Blooded [2987]
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Re: CFP - It's Not Complicated
Nov 23, 2022, 7:14 AM
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I debate number 3. I don't think a 1 point margin is enough for Michigan to not be a threat to our spot. If our loss had looked better, I agree its a slam dunk. In ND beats USC, that loss would look slightly better. Just hoping that the committee puts more value on winning ACC championship than how losses look. Again, Michigan at number 3 losing by one point to number 2 on the road is still a hurdle.
One thing is certain....we can only control number 1 and that is all that matters.
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CU Guru [1708]
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So what you’re saying is
Nov 23, 2022, 7:17 AM
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Clemson wins the Natty again this year!?
Yes you are correct :
CU KO The Karolina’s
ND will punch ? USC
Uga will beat Lsu
Meat -chicken Wolverines will be exposed
TCU will stumble
Bama will tumble
Clemson will upset the Dogs &
Win ? it all
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Team Captain [456]
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Re: CFP - It's Not Complicated
Nov 23, 2022, 7:20 AM
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Agreed. If USC wins out, they go in ahead of us as a 12-1 conference champion who has beaten a common opponent Notre Dame, even though USC got them at home and we played them on the road.
If LSU wins out, they are and 11-2 SEC conference champion, and Georgia probably still gets the nod ahead of us.
If TCU wins out, they are undefeated, and a conference champion.
If Michigan wins out, Ohio State has a lot of political pull and they beat a common opponent Notre Dame.
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CU Guru [1198]
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Re: CFP - It's Not Complicated
Nov 23, 2022, 7:33 AM
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I think the big issue for Clemson getting in will be Michigan. Will the CFP committee put a 1-loss Michigan or 1-loss conference champion Clemson at #4?
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CU Guru [1863]
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Pretty sure TCU is at home versus Iowa State.
Nov 23, 2022, 7:55 AM
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nm
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: CFP - It's Not Complicated
Nov 23, 2022, 11:07 AM
[ in reply to Re: CFP - It's Not Complicated ] |
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I am hopeful that they would pick in that scenario. Michigan's SOS is crap.
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Orange Blooded [2189]
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#1 being the most significant!
Nov 23, 2022, 8:22 AM
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The Tigers need focus on what they can control and let the rest of the cards fall where they may! Failure to win out makes #’s 2-5 irrelevant.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: #1 being the most significant!
Nov 23, 2022, 11:10 AM
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Well, if any of the Clemson players or coaches are spending their time this week reading this board, Dabo should put his foot in their ###.
Meanwhile, it's a long week and I need to blow off a little steam.
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CU Guru [1197]
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I believe it's Iowa St @ TCU***
Nov 23, 2022, 11:31 AM
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