More on the CFP conspiracy

Dec 3, 2015, 11:09 AM

I hope this isn't germans.

http://thebiglead.com/2015/12/02/the-college-football-playoff-rankings-conspiracy-theory/

"The College Football Playoff is a business venture. Only a raving conspiracy theorist would question an opaque oligarchy with obvious incentives. We would not dare impugn the honesty of venerable amateur athletics establishment figures. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say the committee was being 100 percent cynical.

Pretend the rankings were not dead honest assessments, but an arbitrary construct with the twin goals of generating “debate” and justifying the inevitable top four. Could the present rankings have worked out better?

First off, the controversy. How would the cynical committee keep the discussion/suspense going until the announcement? Stanford killed off much of the debate by beating Notre Dame. The last potential “chaos” scenario – barring an improbable Alabama loss to Florida – is Clemson losing to North Carolina.

Actual logic has no place here. It’s committee logic. The committee can’t take one-loss Clemson over one-loss ACC Champion UNC, even if it might make sense résumé wise. Rule out Stanford here too. North Carolina did play two FCS teams. But, the committee probably can’t tell the ACC a two-loss Pac 12 champion is preferable to a team that went undefeated in their conference with one loss. The playoff is predicated on winning the ACC meaning something.

To generate controversy, the committee would put 11-1 Ohio State at No. 6. One of MSU/Iowa will be knocked down. That would put the Buckeyes at a de facto No. 5. If anything happens…they would be the team that should move up, ahead of North Carolina. But maybe not. Controversy achieved.

Choosing Ohio State over North Carolina/Stanford would violate the sanctity of the conference championship. Choosing Ohio State over Clemson with better wins because truly great teams lose on the penultimate week, not the final one, would be absurd. In our blind poll of 1-loss resumés, with the program names stripped away, 20% of our voters chose a 1-loss Clemson with a loss to UNC. Only 3% chose an Ohio State team that beat Michigan but did not have an opportunity to add another quality win and win the Big Ten Conference. (And 4% chose UNC if they win the ACC).

Choosing Ohio State without a valid argument for the second-straight year would make the playoff look rigged. The committee, basically, can’t take Ohio State.

But, keeping Ohio State on life support and then not choosing them makes the committee look honest, righteous, and like they respect the process. Double bonus.

Beyond suspense, the cynical committee must address some résumé issues for probable playoff teams. The top four must be justified.

Alabama is going to be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. They will win the S-E-C. The trouble is their résumé fell out from under them. Looking at the committee’s Week 13 rankings, Alabama’s one Top 25 win was No. 21 Mississippi State. The team Alabama lost to, Ole Miss, beat the Bulldogs to knock them out of the Top 25. The SOS logic could backfire here.

What would the cynical committee do? Sneak LSU and Tennessee into the 20-25 range where they can only move up. Give Ole Miss a second major bump into the Top 15. Florida won’t fall all the way out at 10-3. If a team does get knocked out of the Top 25, the first team waiting outside the Top 25 is 9-3, AP No. 25 Wisconsin (We see you, Barry Alvarez). Suddenly, Alabama is 4-1 against ranked teams.

The cynical committee may have to talk about Iowa too. The Hawkeyes are 60 minutes away. Push 10-2 Northwestern ahead of Michigan, a team that beat them 38-0. Iowa beats Michigan State and, suddenly, that’s two Top 15 wins. If Wisconsin slips in there at No. 25, Iowa is 3-0 against Top 25 teams. Of course, they deserve to be in the playoff.

Again, we’re not saying the committee did or would manipulate its opaque rankings process to keep the suspense alive and cover their ##### in probable eventualities. That would violate the honorable amateur ethos. We’re sure these are unbiased assessments of teams.

But, if they had been cynical jerks concerned with objectives, the Week 14 rankings would prove quite convenient."

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Re: More on the CFP conspiracy

Do you know the two things about this that doesn't bother me

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