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CU Medallion [55732]
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Overturning Roe will hurt the GOP short and long-term.
Jun 24, 2022, 8:37 AM
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Short-term it will cost them seats they could’ve won in the mid-terms. So maybe the majority is not there to combat Biden. That would suck. I cannot see 3 more years of this crap.
Long-term, without the useful idiots who blindly voted GOP b/c they were allegedly pro-life, the Pubs lose a core portion of their base. And it gives the Woke Socialists a rallying cry.
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Lot o points [155801]
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We've discussed this a few times.
Jun 24, 2022, 8:40 AM
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Who, in your opinion, currently has abortion (pro or con) as one of their primary vote drivers and will be switching votes post-Roe?
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All-In [31887]
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Only thing I see is possibly driving turn-out....
Jun 24, 2022, 8:51 AM
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/ energizing base voters.
But that's going to happen on both sides. However, I would guess it would have a greater turn-out drive for the dems if analyzed as a single-issue.
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Lot o points [155801]
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Right, you have to analyze it in a vacuum for it to
Jun 24, 2022, 8:55 AM
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make a diff.
In the context of the current confluence of shidstorms that this administration is lording over, I suspect the Pubs will be about as turned out already as it's possible to get. The issue might, might take away a bit of Dem indifference (based on polling numbers), but I suspect it'll be statistically insignificant.
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All-In [31887]
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agreed...hard to imagine a greater GOP motivation...
Jun 24, 2022, 8:56 AM
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than taking back control of Congress with Biden in the White House.
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Letterman [257]
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Lot o points [155801]
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Why do you see them switching?***
Jun 24, 2022, 10:18 AM
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: Some independents.***
Jun 24, 2022, 10:26 AM
[ in reply to Some independents.*** ] |
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Doubtful many will turn.
Money/inflation is a bigger driver than abortion rights inmho.
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Hall of Famer [24024]
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All-TigerNet [12246]
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I disagree... very few people in the electorate are single
Jun 24, 2022, 9:07 AM
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issue voters. The Republican platform has been pro-life for a long time. For the few voters that cast their vote solely on the abortion issue their voting pattern will not change. Single issue pro-choice voters will not vote for Republicans and single issue pro-life voters will never vote for Democrats. The overturning of Roe vs. Wade may get a lot of media gnashing of teeth and leftist protests but overall it will be a minor blip on the radar come November.
For the average voter (especially those over the age of 35) - the abortion issue is a tangential issue that is largely abstract to their lives. Sure - they may talk about it but it is not an everyday issue that really affects their life. If I don't see an issue as having any real affect on me - I'm certainly not going to let it impact how I vote when there are other issues that do directly affect me.
The biggest issues that sway the majority of the electorate are always those issues that people feel every day. Right now that issue is the out of control energy costs and inflation because everyone feels it in their pocket books. Every time someone goes to the gas station, grocery store, balances their bank account or looks at their 401k they are feeling the affects of this inflation. The political party that is going to win in November is the one who voters think have the best solution to these problems...
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Oculus Spirit [75714]
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I disagree with you very much so.
Jun 24, 2022, 10:52 AM
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After primaries I reckon 98% of the electorate is a single issue voter, and that issue is if a candidate has an R or D beside their name. Nothing else matters. Nuance has been tossed away and this is now like cheering for a sports team.
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Oculus Spirit [97703]
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I've said for a few decades now....it should be a state
Jun 24, 2022, 9:31 AM
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issue. The Constitution says it (and about 2,000 other things the federal government forces on everyone) should be state issues. I think the Supreme Court sees the error in their past ways a little more clearly after January 6th. Here's what will happen because abortion is once again a state issue, more Americans (net/overall) will be more content and happy.
Take any 50/50 issue (we have so many that are 50/50 because the federal government mandates/controls so many things), take any 50/50 issue and you have 50% of Americans happy, and 50% of Americans ticked off and raging mad, because the government has forced a solution on everyone, nationwide. Leave that 50/50 issue to the states, and each state passes a law, one way or the other, on the issue. The result is overall, the number of Americans ticked off, the net number of people wanting to storm the Capitol for instance, drops well below 50%. Abortion is not a 50/50 issue in California, nor in Alabama. Regardless of the state law, the majority will rule in each state, creating less ticked off people overall. It's why we have a 10th Amendment, and are called (still) a REPUBLIC. The more power and control we place in Washington (and the federal tax amendment and $30T in debt makes sure there's a lot), the less content people are overall. Large and diverse democracies always die. ALWAYS. It's 100% in history books. Democracy only works in a small, homogenous state. The larger, and more diverse the state (the US), the more you have to rely on Republicanism (not the political party but the form of government).
You saw this with the start of the covid pandemic. The federal government deferred to the states, as they should. States controlled their own "mandates" and regulations. The federal government didn't mandate masks (except for planes and areas where it could). Even the shutdowns were done by state governors, it wasn't a federal mandate. States controlled the measures taken because they should. And here comes Biden trying to make federal mandates on the vaccines and he was shot down. If Washington tried to make masks mandates, restaurant occupancy mandates, stay at home mandates, or anything else, we would have collapsed as a nation. Other issues are no different. Collectively there are dozens of hot button issues that add up to have the same effect of making people angry in large numbers. You diffuse that situation, and please the largest percentage of people possible, by deferring to the states on the most divisive issues.
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Hall of Famer [24475]
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Loved it.***
Jun 24, 2022, 9:48 AM
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Oculus Spirit [97703]
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I think where the court saw the problem in Roe
Jun 24, 2022, 10:19 AM
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(I HAVE NOT READ THE DECISION AND WON"T UNTIL OFFICIALLY RELEASED), was the prior court saw abortion as a right. They deemed it a right, and that's not the correct approach. Specifically, it was a woman's right to choose. My body, my choice! Guess heroin should be legal too. Anyway, once it was framed as a right all women should have (even though some women violently oppose it), doesn't matter. It was a created right with the ruling. Once something becomes a right, it opens the Constitutional door for federal control and universal application nationwide, thanks to the Equal Protection Clause in the 14th Amendment. And to this day, the court has selectively picked and chosen rights to apply nationwide, and others that remain privileges. Gay marriage became a right from the court, should have been a state issue. However, healthcare has never been deemed a right, nor education for that matter. They are still privileges. States control education, and in states, school districts have large leeway. Can you imagine the ticked off parents if your school board were federal employees and so was your child's teacher? Anyway, the 10th Amendment was specifically crafted to address this issue. It was literally the deal-maker that pushed the Constitution to ratification. Without it, there would have been no ratification. All other rights not granted in the document, are reserved for the states. AS SUCH, any additional right granted, should be an amendment, either by 3/5 of the states voting in an Article V convention, or through Congress. That is your only CONSTITUTIONAL recourse to add additional rights. The Supreme Court blew that out of the water long ago, and it has made more and more Americans angry.
Today we largely ignore our state leaders and local elections. The main money goes to (and comes from) Washington. This shouldn't be the case. We should see few protests in Washington, DC. and should see many more at our statehouses. A protest on the steps of a statehouse is a healthy protest IMO. On the steps of the Capital or the Supreme Court, that's not a good sign. Add to that a lack of education on history in the US, and we have a nation who looks to Washington for answers. That was never what made America great, and Washington will never MAGA, that I promise. No matter who you elect to run Washington.
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Hall of Famer [24475]
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Commentators gravely warn about 'protecting democracy' while
Jun 24, 2022, 11:39 AM
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promoting greater and greater power to the fed govt., almost always as a matter of their take on specific issues: democracy now means, "I get my way."
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110%er [5669]
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: I've said for a few decades now....it should be a state
Jun 24, 2022, 10:43 AM
[ in reply to I've said for a few decades now....it should be a state ] |
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Well, I've always agreed it's a state issue myself...but I think the real problem the GOP is putting itself in here is, this is a bad hill to die on and now that it is a state issue I think it's going to hurt the GOP worse than it realizes.
Women have been drifting away from the GOP for awhile now. Postmortems done in Georgia indicate that where Trump lost Georgia wasn't in the city with the black vote - that was pretty much locked in already - but in the burbs with women voters. The same thing happened yet again with those two Senate seats the GOP lost a couple months later as well.
The GOP's big edge has always been its built-in edge at the state and local levels...and this metastasizes a baked-in amount of what was previously a gettable swing vote against them. How bad that ends up being, I have no idea...but moms in the burbs are going to hate this - something like 70% of women support the right to choose - and so that's at the least a few definite percentage points of the vote the GOP just threw away with this "victory"...especially if this becomes a Cause. And it's absolutely going to become one.
Taking away rights, once granted, doesn't usually go well.
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Oculus Spirit [97703]
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I don't care really what it does to dems or the GOP
Jun 24, 2022, 12:13 PM
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It's right for America. They will both probably suffer as a result. IDGAF, really. I don't see it as a right taken away. States, every single one of them, has a right to allow or prohibit them. And every person in every state has a right to get an abortion, if not in their state, in another who will gladly take their money.
Interesting thing, read a Politico article about it, and it didn't take 2 sentences before they unveiled their main point. These should not be "new powers". Roe created a new power for Washington. Now it's going BACK to the states where it originally rested.
The bombshell decision is set to upend elections across the country as governors, attorneys general and other state and local leaders gain new powers to decide when abortion will be permitted, if at all, and who should be prosecuted and potentially incarcerated when bans take effect.
ALSO, this can be an economic boom for pro-abortion states who keep it legal. Not only will they have their current load of procedures, they will get people coming in from other states for abortions.
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Hall of Famer [24746]
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(Blackstone buying up all Colorado abortion clinics, pronto)***
Jun 24, 2022, 1:11 PM
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: I don't care really what it does to dems or the GOP
Jun 24, 2022, 1:57 PM
[ in reply to I don't care really what it does to dems or the GOP ] |
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The real interesting question is going to be the states that are setting up laws that will allow them to charge a woman for murder if she travels to another state for an abortion.
Can, say, Florida charge a woman for a crime committed in Georgia...where it is not a crime?
Considering the Supreme Court ruling revolves around states' rights here, you'd think that would get knocked down. But I suspect some states will try it anyway...and I really do wonder if the Supreme Court will allow it. Which would set all manner of bad precedents and unleash an absolutely unholy ball of interstate arrests and litigation.
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All-TigerNet [13098]
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Re: Overturning Roe will hurt the GOP short and long-term.
Jun 24, 2022, 9:54 AM
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Yea, reversing unconstitutional laws usually punishes republicans. Weird.
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Orange Blooded [2692]
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Re: Overturning Roe will hurt the GOP short and long-term.
Jun 24, 2022, 10:09 AM
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The GOP will make Roe a trivial issue by November. And they will make it trivial compared to the reality of high fuel prices, inflation, drag queens in schools, and border chaos.
If they can't win back majority of the house and senate this fall, then they might as well start over as something else.
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110%er [5669]
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If we see a plethora of mostly
Jun 24, 2022, 10:21 AM
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peaceful riots and crazy, triggered woke liberals running around like chickens with their heads cut off, crying, screaming, etc., I can imagine that bolstering more independents to get out and vote to help stop the madness.
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Hall of Famer [22387]
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Yes it will.
Jun 24, 2022, 10:25 AM
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Women had been moving away from the GOP and that accelerated under Trump. Overturning Roe v Wade will further accelerate that movement.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Overturning Roe will hurt the GOP short and long-term.
Jun 24, 2022, 10:57 AM
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110%er [9101]
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Nope. Totally wrong.
Jun 24, 2022, 11:08 AM
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First off, the common belief is that abortion has now been made illegal nationwide, which is false. In conservative states, where abortion is or will be limited or eliminated, this will help the GOP because, well, that's what their base believes in.
Secondly, pro-life/anti-abortion has been a key plank in the GOP platform pretty much since Day One. This will strengthen the GOP in that respect.
Last, Biden is an idiot and the country and the economy is in shambles. The key thing that will drive votes in 2024 is the economy. Period. Barring some crazy change. Dems will still vote Dem, and GOP will still vote GOP. The independents do not have any reason to have any faith in Biden or in the DNC. Most independents are in relatively conservative states, anyway.
The overturning of Roe v Wade will have zero impact on the DNC or the GOP.
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All-In [42136]
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Yeah, long term, I'm not so sure how much the GOP...
Jun 24, 2022, 11:34 AM
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Will like this on a national level. The abortion debate was a great one to get the masses fired up during presidential and Congressional elections. It was a good tactic for painting the Dems as "evil baby killers".
That's gone now on the national level. It's a completely moot point in any presidential debate or any Congressional issue since the court has now punted to the states.
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All-TigerNet [13098]
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Re: Yeah, long term, I'm not so sure how much the GOP...
Jun 24, 2022, 11:46 AM
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“It's a completely moot point in any presidential debate or any Congressional issue since the court has now punted to the states.”
Good. Picking a president based on your views regarding abortion, is dumb.
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All-In [42136]
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Yet so many have done it...
Jun 24, 2022, 11:59 AM
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And both parties have made it an issue during every election.
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All-TigerNet [13098]
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Re: Yet so many have done it...
Jun 24, 2022, 12:03 PM
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Yep, it is always an issue, and it drives me mad no matter what side they are on.
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