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All-TigerNet [10887]
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 11:20 AM
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The science would inform you that there are at least 100 other variables involved that you have done nothing to address.
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All-TigerNet [10887]
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LOL
Mar 7, 2021, 11:27 AM
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It's funny how you branch covidians always have an excuse. You do realize the same thing could be said about the supposed evidence (in reality, nothing but computer simulations) that support masks, right? lol
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All-In [40929]
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If you are fully vaccinated you still need to wear a mask
Mar 7, 2021, 11:56 AM
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fauci said so
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: LOL
Mar 7, 2021, 3:12 PM
[ in reply to LOL ] |
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Tom
2 points:
1. Yeah, that pesky science with all of its "excuses" like controlling for variables and understanding that correlation is not causation. What a bunch of lunatics.
2. Computer simulations under identical conditions except for masks (experimental group) and not masks (control group). All of the pother variables were controlled for. See how simple that can be ?
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 11:47 AM
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Well you would need a study of the entire population not wearing masks in comparison.
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Hall of Famer [24477]
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IE, there is no evidence it was all Trump's fault.
Mar 7, 2021, 2:15 PM
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I agree with you: the effect of any input, such as masks, has to be isolated from all other inputs to draw conclusions about outcome, hence the blind controlled tests. All of those have shown masks to have little effect on the spread of any corona virus.
The article linked below is titled "Confused about the science?", and goes on to prove that it is author who is confused. All that is cited are observational surveys, which are in no one's definition of 'science'. Admittedly, stack enough observational surveys on top of each other, and it can appear as though a given thing is the cause, and it might be. But those conclusions are notoriously wrong, so they still have to be tested.
The most recent actual controlled test, the Danish one, confirmed for the 10th or 12th time no causation, whatever the correlation might be.
I will propose this: there is a difference between effectiveness in a given event, and effectiveness for a population, and this is why we talk past each other. Consider a condom. They are about 99% effective. However, of 100 women using them as primary birth control, 10 will become pregnant in a year. This is because the average married woman will have sex 50 to 100 times per year. So, in one encounter, to not wear a condom is stupid. To rely on it is iffy. Consider a condom being 90% effective. One can see that it is still very effective in an encounter, but almost worthless to a population over a year: the pregnancy rate would approach that of no birth control at all.
Masks seem to be that. No manufacturer will claim any effectiveness, and my guess is that they would be thrilled at 90%. At 90%, yes, one is stupid to not wear a mask for his own protection in the next human encounter. Nevertheless, over a year's time, a population will spread it at about the same rate as no mask. That is simply how the math works, because we have so many interactions.
Therefore, the article was dead wrong about the most important of the three mitigating factors. Distance is by far the most important. If you are across the street, you can't give it to me. Violate that, and all bets are off. That's just the way it is. The author of the article is very confused about what 'science' is.
Message was edited by: CUintulsa®
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CU Medallion [58411]
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Wouldn't it be safe to say then, that when properly used,
Mar 7, 2021, 6:51 PM
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masks are (probably) highly effective? And, on a side note, I'd like to learn more about these married women who are having sex 100 times a year.
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CU Medallion [58411]
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Also - there is a mask mandate where I work. Some people
Mar 7, 2021, 7:02 PM
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simply don't comply, and management is not that interested in enforcing the rule. Of the people who do wear theirs, half of the time it's below their nose or even below their chins like a chinstrap, so technically there's a mask mandate and it would show as such on the graph (and in this "study"), but such a graph would be meaningless there. "Mask wearing" would appear to be ineffective as we work in very tight quarters and there has been a recent covid outbreak there.
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Hall of Famer [24477]
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Sure, in a relatively small group like that, anything that
Mar 8, 2021, 11:27 AM
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mitigates should be done, and the non compliers should be confronted. We're still talking about the difference between 'effectiveness' in encounter and 'effectiveness' in a population over time when there are many encounters. Two different things.
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Hall of Famer [24477]
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LOL! Me too. Yes, very effective in a single encounter.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:23 AM
[ in reply to Wouldn't it be safe to say then, that when properly used, ] |
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But that says nothing about the masks' effect in the spread of the virus in a population over a period of time. If 90% effective, the effect on the population, over time, would be minimal. That's just how the math works.
This is why (1) yes, I wear a mask and (2) no, I don't think mask compliers or non compliers can be blamed for societal experience with covid. In one encounter or at an event, yes. General trends, no. A dozen controlled tests have shown this to be the case.
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Heisman Winner [111541]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 11:59 AM
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people who actually responded to a you-gov survey asking if they wear masks probably wear masks. I think we can all agree that people did not start all magically wearing masks last April, there were not even enough masks available yet and still a debate as to if they were even effective. Half this board was talking about how they were violating their rights, so we can put that little graph to bed because it is not objective reality, just a handful of people responding to a poll.
If you want to continue arguing that wearing masks has no effect, thus nudging public opinion away from public safety, go for it. The internet is written in ink.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 12:21 PM
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All-In [48078]
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 12:42 PM
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 12:59 PM
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I wear mine so I can enter businesses, but not for my exact safety. I don't care at this stage. It's not stressful to wear it for me though. It is for others. I have a few friends that act as if it is torture. I have a surf trip to Mexico in a couple of months, but one of my friends is refusing to go because the airline requires us to wear masks. It's odd to me that he would refuse to wear a mask for 4 hours or so and miss out on a whole trip. It's political to him. He is a Q guy.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Trust the science.
Mar 7, 2021, 1:12 PM
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All-TigerNet [10887]
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Thanks, that's an uplifting post.
Mar 7, 2021, 8:56 PM
[ in reply to Re: Trust the science. ] |
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I've mostly been around golf courses and private events, and nobody wears masks there, except the occasional weirdo. I haven't been out and about much when it comes to bars and restaurants. Glad to hear people are ignoring the idiocy.
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All-In [34582]
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Masks dont work...***
Mar 7, 2021, 3:26 PM
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All-In [26968]
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Problem is, there's no control group.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:12 AM
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You don't know what the spike would have looked like if people weren't wearing masks.
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All-In [26968]
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The angst about masks doesn't register with me.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:15 AM
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Like, even if I'm not sure it's effective, if there's even a very small chance that there is, why would I NOT wear one? It seems like a simple thing to do, that doesn't negatively affect me, that could possibly help someone around me.
I choose to wear one, even if I'm not mandated to, until the population becomes vaccinated at large.
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [26968]
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Still, you're not controlling any other variables.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:27 AM
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There are a host of things that make California a different place than Georgia or New York.
The very best that could be done is to compare neighboring towns, or something. That at least gets you close to controlling other variables.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Still, you're not controlling any other variables.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:33 AM
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All-In [26968]
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It's the same shape, usually...
Mar 8, 2021, 11:35 AM
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But what if it's the same shape, but could have peaked at 10,000 instead of 2,000, for example? You can't just go by what the shape of the curve is.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: It's the same shape, usually...
Mar 8, 2021, 11:49 AM
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All-In [26968]
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OK, then what if it could have peaked at
Mar 8, 2021, 11:51 AM
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10 per million, instead of 2 per million? Doesn't change what I'm saying.
I'm not trying hard to get to any conclusion. You are the one trying for a conclusion. I'm saying there is no conclusion.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: OK, then what if it could have peaked at
Mar 8, 2021, 12:05 PM
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All-In [26968]
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I am not arguing that restrictions are effective.
Mar 8, 2021, 12:11 PM
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I'm saying these numbers don't demonstrate that one way or the other.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: I am not arguing that restrictions are effective.
Mar 8, 2021, 12:16 PM
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All-In [26968]
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You can read charts and data, but
Mar 8, 2021, 12:19 PM
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you can't project onto them any more than what they are. Then it's no longer science, but politics.
Again, I'm not justifying anything. I don't know if restrictions have been effective. I know I've obeyed 'em anyway, because that's my job as a Christian and citizen. It's not my job to determine whether or not they are the right policy. One day maybe we'll have some data that demonstrates it well one way or the other, and we can do some post-mortem on this pandemic and try to learn from it.
I'm just a math/science nerd, so I'm coming to the defense of math and science, more than anything.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You can read charts and data, but
Mar 8, 2021, 12:33 PM
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All-In [26968]
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The problem is uncertainty.
Mar 8, 2021, 12:36 PM
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The story of science is one of uncertainty, of course. But that is the reason reactions are varied, and guidance is sometimes varied. It's because we don't really KNOW much of anything. All we can do is the best we can do.
I see this example a lot...I think the answer is simple. The reason dining is allowed and church is "not allowed" is because the ones in charge decided the former was a more essential activity. It's why Wal-Mart is open, but not Carowinds. (I don't know if Carowinds is open or not, just using an example.)
Obviously, I do not agree with that judgment, as I view church to be essential. But I understand the logic.
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All-In [26968]
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The reason you wear a mask on your way to the table
Mar 8, 2021, 12:39 PM
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But not at your table, is because you can't wear a mask and eat. If you could, they'd probably make you wear one at the table, too. It's about doing the best you can. Wearing it walking to your table doesn't hurt anything, so the best we can do is require it then.
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [26968]
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Why would I want to justify that?***
Mar 8, 2021, 1:29 PM
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All-In [26968]
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I believe if the schools are open, and they refuse
Mar 8, 2021, 1:29 PM
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to go back, they should be fired.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: I believe if the schools are open, and they refuse
Mar 8, 2021, 4:29 PM
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All-In [31890]
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I think there is data supporting the idea that lockdowns...
Mar 8, 2021, 11:54 AM
[ in reply to Re: Problem is, there's no control group. ] |
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may not have been the best strategy. However, just using state data based on state orders is/can be misleading.
For example, Florida may not have had state orders, but many local jurisdictions did have mask orders, shut-down orders, etc... So just saying that the FL case data being about the same as the CA case data proves that shut-downs didn't make a difference is not really a complete picture.
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All-In [26968]
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I think if we could find two towns, very close to each other
Mar 8, 2021, 11:57 AM
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And very similar to each other in size, population, demographics, etc., and one had a mask ordinance, and one didn't, then maybe that would be interesting data on the subject. I don't know if anyone's done that.
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All-In [31890]
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I haven't looked in a while, but initial data in SC...
Mar 8, 2021, 11:59 AM
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seemed to show lower case totals from areas with mask ordinances than from those without. However, even that doesn't paint a complete picture.
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All-In [26968]
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Right...even within a state.
Mar 8, 2021, 12:01 PM
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Columbia would be very different from Bamberg in terms of what you'd expect of virus transmission.
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [31890]
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Please don't use "Science" and your gibberish in the...
Mar 8, 2021, 11:50 AM
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same post.
You really think comparing covid cases to a survey on mask wearing is "science". Great day man...and you spew out this stuff like you're really on to something. It's sad and it pains me to see you have an engineering degree from Clemson.
After a quick search on yougov, I found their weekly survey of 1500 citizens.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/3at75tb28w/econTabReport.pdf
The mask question starts on page 37. I guess the tweet you shared is adding the "always" and "most of the time" results for the graph they did.
Here is an actual scientific piece on mask wearing if you're interested.
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#abstract-1An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19 The science around the use of masks by the public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. In this narrative review, we develop an analytical framework to examine mask usage, synthesizing the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: population impact, transmission characteristics, source control, wearer protection, sociological considerations, and implementation considerations. A primary route of transmission of COVID-19 is via respiratory particles, and it is known to be transmissible from presymptomatic, paucisymptomatic, and asymptomatic individuals. Reducing disease spread requires two things: limiting contacts of infected individuals via physical distancing and other measures and reducing the transmission probability per contact. The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at reducing spread of the virus when compliance is high. Given the current shortages of medical masks, we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. Because many respiratory particles become smaller due to evaporation, we recommend increasing focus on a previously overlooked aspect of mask usage: mask wearing by infectious people (“source control”) with benefits at the population level, rather than only mask wearing by susceptible people, such as health care workers, with focus on individual outcomes. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.
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All-In [31890]
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Weird how he rarely replies***
Mar 8, 2021, 4:20 PM
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Orange Blooded [2763]
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It's cute you think people actually wear masks.
Mar 8, 2021, 12:01 PM
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What your chart doesn't take into account is, well, looking out the window.
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Replies: 45
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