Replies: 16
| visibility 1
|
Oculus Spirit [97704]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64844
Joined: 7/13/02
|
Finally, an omicron specific viral load study.
Jan 11, 2022, 10:21 AM
|
|
Been waiting for one. They always come from Asia for some reason. Seems to be Japan this time, instead of Singapore or China.
I'm just going to leave this here. It explains a lot. Brief summary: peak viral loads and transmission occur 5-6 days from symptom onset with omicron, with transmission possible through day 10. With Delta, peak viral loads were 2 days before to about 2 days after symptoms. CDC didn't bother doing a hands-on study guiding their choice to change the quarantine to end on day 5. Bad move. Really, it's kinda hard to make a worse call.
Anyway....the study.
https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10884-covid19-66-en.html
And if you want a comparison to delta, below is the same type of study (more thorough) for Delta. Much different numbers.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full-textVirological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study Objectives Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns (VOCs) with mutations in the spike protein are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections.
Methods We conducted a multi-centre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared the clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
Results Of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 had received a mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and 4 received a non-mRNA. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, the odds of severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation was significantly lower following vaccination (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95%CI: 0.015-0.335, p=0.001). PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients, however, these titers were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 as compared with the wildtype vaccine strain.
Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic.
### Competing Interest Statement
BEY reports personal fees from Roche and Sanofi, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests.
### Funding Statement
This study was funded by grants from the Singapore National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF-001, COVID19RF-008). The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study;url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/0.001). PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients, however, these titers were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 as compared with the wildtype vaccine strain.
Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic.
### Competing Interest Statement
BEY reports personal fees from Roche and Sanofi, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests.
### Funding Statement
This study was funded by grants from the Singapore National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF-001, COVID19RF-008). The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
### Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
Written informed consent was obtained from study participants of the multi-centre study approved by National Healthcare Group Domain Specific Review Board (NHG-DSRB) (Study Reference 2012/00917). Informed consent for retrospective data collection at National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) was waived (NHG-DSRB reference number 2020/01122).
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [11963]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 12224
Joined: 11/9/04
|
I'll have to read these later....question though
Jan 11, 2022, 1:08 PM
|
|
were the findings for vaccinated folks or unvaccinated?
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97704]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64844
Joined: 7/13/02
|
Vaccinated.
Jan 11, 2022, 1:11 PM
|
|
Doubt there's much difference. The Japanese study was vaccinated. The Singapore study with delta was vaxxed and unvaxxed, and showed no major difference (until later anyway, when you get rid of the virus or die from it). Omicron actually does leave the body quicker, per the Japanese study. Probably less chances of long covid as well.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [60036]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 22497
Joined: 5/24/17
|
why do you want lockdowns and long
Jan 11, 2022, 1:13 PM
|
|
quarantines for a virus that isnt killing anyone? Just asking for a friend. Cause that really seems to be your stance from the onset.
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97704]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64844
Joined: 7/13/02
|
No, no lockdown. The quarantine should be 10 days
Jan 11, 2022, 2:37 PM
|
|
Get a vaccine and carry on.
That's it.
Please show me where I advocated a lockdown. I'd love to see it. Haven't since summer of 2020. That strawman's ship has long ago sailed.
Besides, it's only killing 1700 people a day. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we've gone to war for 20 years and spent $1 trillion avenging two days worth of covid deaths. Calculate the war with Japan over 2,400 deaths. I dunno, we're all numb now I guess.
If you tell people it's safe to leave quarantine after 5 days, and that's when they spread it the most, the benefit of that shorter time missing work will be offset by the increased cases. There's going to be a shutdown either way, a viral one or a government one. This won't go like South Africa.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [73569]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 78044
Joined: 11/30/98
|
you know those covid death counts are bs
Jan 11, 2022, 2:47 PM
|
|
so lets stop using those crazy numbers.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31887]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37176
Joined: 11/22/03
|
*eye roll*...so if they were 25% less it's no biggie?***
Jan 11, 2022, 2:54 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [73569]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 78044
Joined: 11/30/98
|
lets assume its only 25%. they said hospitalizations were
Jan 11, 2022, 3:01 PM
|
|
most likely overinflated by around 40% but ok.
Would we have destroyed as many lives and lockdowns for a 25-40% less death rate?
Also, Why lie about this from the beginning? What was the purpose to overinflate the numbers?
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31887]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37176
Joined: 11/22/03
|
That was discussed below and they did NOT say...
Jan 11, 2022, 3:21 PM
|
|
the numbers were inflated by 40%...that's what you wanted to hear.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [73569]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 78044
Joined: 11/30/98
|
they used the word, overcounted. same thing***
Jan 11, 2022, 3:29 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97704]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64844
Joined: 7/13/02
|
A million more Americans than normal have died since covid
Jan 11, 2022, 3:43 PM
|
|
started. Period. If you want to chalk that up to bad tacos at Taco Bell or whatever else, fine. But that means SOMETHING new has become a leading cause of death to add that much to existing "normal" deaths. And whatever that is, bad tacos, whatever, is more serious than a heart attack, evidently.
I think it's really dihydrogen monoxide.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [73569]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 78044
Joined: 11/30/98
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97704]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64844
Joined: 7/13/02
|
Well, we've regressed back to my birth year.
Jan 11, 2022, 4:36 PM
|
|
Bicentennial baby.....
Nice.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [73569]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 78044
Joined: 11/30/98
|
actually
Jan 11, 2022, 4:39 PM
|
|
there's a disclaimer i missed on this anyway for 2020-21
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31887]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37176
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Aren't you missing that the 5-day quarantine is....
Jan 11, 2022, 2:53 PM
|
|
that quarantine period can end in 5 days if the exposed person is asymptomatic or if they were symptomatic, that they can end in 5 days if no fever for 24-hours?
Doesn't the Omicron variant typically have a faster onset of symptoms vs previous variants?
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97704]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64844
Joined: 7/13/02
|
They say it has less presymptomatic days
Jan 11, 2022, 4:22 PM
|
|
Supposedly one, down from 2-3 with delta. I haven't seen that study or any data confirming that, but that's what "they" say. Then again "they" say by day 3 or 4 you're no longer contagious. I go by evidence/data, not talking heads though. And since the talking heads give no evidence, well.....
Anyway, it may all just be a moot point anyway, since omicron uses a different mechanism to infect cells from all prior covid variants. It may take much less initial dose of the virus to cause an infection anyway. Maybe masks are now useless, maybe aerosol size is smaller now and lingers longer. Who knows. Got to wait on the virus to get over to asia to learn anything useful.
I know probably 20+ vaccinated people with omicron. Not a one vaxxed has run a fever, my house included. Only unvaxxed 4yo ran a fever. Also know several other kids (unvaxxed) and unvaxxed adults, and every one has run a fever. Heck, covid notwithstanding, I would chalk it up to a funky cold, and would have probably only missed one or maybe two days of work, if that. But as it stands, 2 days into symptoms (tested negative on a home test - another sore topic) oldest son and I managed to infect 16 out of 16 people at Christmas.
Lot of things that Japanese study left out, and several other studies I guess are being studied as the virus gets to countries who study what needs to be studied. But that is the very first viral load study I've seen to date, for omicron. Hong Kong did one showing it resides in the throat and upper airways and not the lungs, 70 times higher there and much lower in the lungs. They released that study, and it's cited all over the world, and even by the CDC, yet WHERE IS THE SAME CDC STUDY? Kinda my point I guess. CDC has contributed zilch to really understanding the virus. They leave that to other countries, they simply message manage. They should be doing 90% science and 10% messaging. They're doing good if those ratios are flipped.
|
|
|
|
Replies: 16
| visibility 1
|
|
|