Some numbers to chew on

Jan 7, 2017, 3:47 PM

Folks,

I did some basic research last night and built a spreadsheet this morning. I wanted to see if statistically Bama's rush D is good because they are dominant, or is it because their competition was weak. I looked at Scoring Offense (SO), Scoring Defense (SD) and Rushing Offense (RO) for both Alabama and Clemson. Clemson and Alabama both played a 1-AA program: Chattanooga and SC State. I did not consider these teams in my numbers.

Nothing earth shattering here. I wish I could post the chart. That said, here are some factoids for you.
• Both teams played competition that was fairly equal in terms of SO, SD, RO. The edge goes to Bama. The average team they played had a SO ranked 50, a SD ranked 50 and a RO ranked 49. The average team Clemson played had a SO ranked 59, a SD ranked 42, and a RO ranked 57.

• Each team played 3 teams whose scoring offense was ranked in the top 25:
- Bama: W Ky (1), Washington (8) and Tenn (24)
- CU: LU (6), Pitt (10), and OSU (14)

• Clemson played four offenses that ranked among the worst in the country: BC (118), Syracuse (90). Wake (118), and USuCk (116). Bama only played two: Kent State (117) and Florida (107)

• Bama had a higher distribution of the scoring defenses they played. While they have played 4 of their last 5 games ( LSU (5), Auburn (7), Florida (6) and Washington (9) ) against top 10 defenses, the rest of their schedule doesn't have a team whose SD ranks in the top 30 and has six teams ranked 67th or worse.

• Clemson only played two top ten scoring D (Ohio State (3) and Auburn (7). Clemson play two bad, real bad, SD's: Syracuse (120) and Pitt (106). The difference is EVERY other SD Clemson played ranked above 51 in the nation.

• The rushing offenses each school faced varied as well. Alabama only faced 1 team who ranked in the top 15 rushing: Auburn (6). They did faced three others ranked between 20-23 (UK, LSU and Miss St). Clemson faced four: Auburn (6), GT (9), LU (13) and OSU (12). However Clemson played 6 teams ranked below 73rd in the country which included 3 horrible rushers: USuCk (108), Wake (101) and Syracuse (115). Bama only faced two really bad rushing teams: Ole Miss (95) and Florida (113) plus struggling Ark (77) and Kent State (76)

So what does this all mean? Your guess is as good as mine. I'd say both team have been tested. I'd say Bama's rushing D has played well and has faced good competition.

Alabama ranked #1 in scoring D and Clemson ranked #7.
• Clemson shut out 2 teams and held 7 teams to less than 14 points.
• Alabama shut out 2 teams and held 11 teams to less than 14 points. This includes all four top 26 scoring offenses they faced. (yikes!)

Clemson has the #13 scoring offense in the country (39.5 ppg) and Alabama has the #14 scoring offense (39.4 ppg).
• Clemson scored less than 30 points 3 times this season and scored more than 50 points 4 times.
• Alabama scored less than 30 points 2 times this season and scored more than 50 points 3 times.

Here's the stat that you should keep in mind though. Looks pretty equal right? BUT Alabama has 12 non-offensive touchdowns. That 84 points of scoring. Take those points away from the 551 points they have scored this season and now they rank about 41st in the country! We can't afford to give them cheap points!

There's a lot of love for Clemson this week. I think it is deserved. But our boys need to roll up their sleeves and plan on putting in some overtime. Make no mistake about it, beating Alabama will take our best effort.

Go Tigers!

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Some numbers to chew on

I think comes down to which team is peaking.

Re: I think comes down to which team is peaking.

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