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Orange Blooded [3742]
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I looked up the odds of completing Hail mary
Sep 4, 2016, 3:46 PM
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Now I think these stats are base on the NFL, but I don't see why they would apply relatively equally to 2 power 5 schools on the collegiate level competing against one another. Based on where Auburn attempted their hail mary on the field (about the 40 yd line), there is about 5% chance of completing it for a TD. Now considering Auburn got two tries from the same distance, the likelihood that they'd score is even more than that. http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html?m=1
Now I also looked to see if I could find the odds of a blocked kick six from inside 40yds. I couldn't find anything, but as far block kicks in general, its a little less than 3%. With that, I would think that block kick 6 would likely be along the lines of less than 1%. http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/10/its-blocked.html
As a coach you have to factor in the snapper, whether you kicker has a tendency to kick low, and other things of that nature before making a decision. However, base on this information it does seem that a blocked kick 6 is much less probable than a team completing a Hail Mary. I do not think Dabo was correct when he said he was going with the odds. He probably would have better served saying he was going with his gut.
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Team Captain [467]
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I actually agree that once Gallman ended up OOB
Sep 4, 2016, 5:41 PM
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That kicking the FG there may have been the better play. But going into third down, the plays should have been a run up the middle, bleed the playclock to 1 and call TO (would have been about 6 seconds at most on the clock at that point). The last play should have been Watson dropping back to pass and then simply heaving the ball as far as he can out the back of the endzone. That would have killed the remaining 6 seconds.
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Team Captain [467]
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And yes, I'm aware that the call on 3rd down WAS
Sep 4, 2016, 5:44 PM
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supposed to be a run up the middle and that Gallman was not supposed to go out. But once he did, the FG may have been the better play.
That said, what you're forgetting in the analytics that makes it a closer decision is the odds that Auburn advances to about the 40 to begin with. They had to make a few plays to get there to begin with.
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Mascot [21]
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Agreed on all points, and also
Sep 4, 2016, 5:48 PM
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Auburn was able to move the ball because we GAVE them time. Like you said, Gallman should have been coached to stay in bounds NO MATTER WHAT, then we could have burned virtually all the clock giving them ONE play at most. Either way, we should have kicked the FG.
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Lol, who said he wasn't coached to stay in bounds?***
Sep 4, 2016, 5:55 PM
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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Team Captain [467]
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Yep, sometimes on the field, coaching goes
Sep 4, 2016, 6:00 PM
[ in reply to Lol, who said he wasn't coached to stay in bounds?*** ] |
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Right out the window. A while back when we were playing Georgia in the Peach Bowl, we had actually built a pretty big lead. Georgia kicked a FG to close the gap a little bit (to 21-6) and Frank Beamer went right up to his kickoff return team and told them to expect an onside kick or a slow roller. Under NO CIRCUMSTANCES should they bail until the ball has sailed over their heads.
Well, UGA kicks a slow roller straight ahead. The kid in front of the kicker wasn't there though... he had already bailed. UGA recovered, scored a TD, and went on to win 31-24 (there were a lot of other issues that night).
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Mascot [21]
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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I think he was likely still confused by our decision to
Sep 4, 2016, 6:07 PM
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choose defense first
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Mascot [21]
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LOL, what are you talking about?***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:08 PM
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Hall of Famer [23112]
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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don't confuse her***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:08 PM
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Mascot [21]
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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People should know when they're
Sep 4, 2016, 6:13 PM
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conquered.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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which time?***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:14 PM
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Mascot [21]
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Is that a joke?***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:10 PM
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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You blame the coaches. The only way Gallman going out falls
Sep 4, 2016, 6:28 PM
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solely on the coaches is if they instructed him to go out.
Do you think Gallman was coached to go out?
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CU Medallion [50635]
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i'd bet they were told to stay in bounds during the entire
Sep 4, 2016, 6:30 PM
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timeout before the play
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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That's my guess too. Some seem to want to blame the coaches
Sep 4, 2016, 6:32 PM
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no matter the circumstances.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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the important thing here is to consider
Sep 4, 2016, 6:32 PM
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the source
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Mascot [21]
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I'm not blaming the coaches no matter what.
Sep 4, 2016, 6:44 PM
[ in reply to That's my guess too. Some seem to want to blame the coaches ] |
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If Wayne was told to stay in but made no effort to do so, then the fault is solely on him. I don't know if the coaches made it clear or not. I would certainly hope so, but it's in question since Wayne made no effort to stay in.
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Re: I'm not blaming the coaches no matter what.
Sep 4, 2016, 6:52 PM
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"Nothing wrong with that as long as he knows to stay in bounds at all costs. Saw Dabo shaking his head after Wayne ran out, but sorry coach, that one was on you and the staff. The players gotta know the situation and how to handle it - no matter how long the player has been around, the coaches need to be sure he understands the situation. Why did no one make it 100% clear to stay in bounds there?"
~ Sea Bowling
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Mascot [21]
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Do you think Wayne was instructed to stay in bounds?
Sep 4, 2016, 6:57 PM
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You got me - I'm assuming no. I obviously don't have enough evidence to incriminate the coaching, but I also find it extremely hard to believe Wayne would not listen to coaching. If forced to pick, I'm thinking he wasn't told.
Your turn - do you think Wayne was told to stay in but didn't, or do you think he wasn't told?
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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I don't care.***
Sep 4, 2016, 7:34 PM
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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In general or was this a case of specificity?***
Sep 4, 2016, 8:03 PM
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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I care about some things. The conversation Dabo had with Gallman prior to that play
Sep 4, 2016, 8:09 PM
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is not one of them.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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sounds like you are not
Sep 4, 2016, 8:16 PM
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a true fan
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Have you two met? Stanley this is Francis Marion, FM this
Sep 4, 2016, 7:06 PM
[ in reply to Re: I'm not blaming the coaches no matter what. ] |
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is Stanley, IranTaxiDriver, Sea Bowling, Juan Zgae, HarlemShake, Cmelton, Cu_Swami, DrNakamats, Makeplaystiger, Hot Sauce, 91Tigerss, GOT_Tigers, Main_Tiger, RichmondAreaGo[RAG], CantTouchDis, Orange Headband, LoveMeSumTigers, Willphil, Mattiger, Stanleytiger, Shane_Morgan and too many others to recall on short notice.
Stanley doesn't get it and never will, which means she has been banned forever and that's a very long time.
Goodbye, Stanley.
@B-Meist
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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FM's a little slow... awesome post is
Sep 4, 2016, 7:13 PM
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awesome
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Same thing unfortunately happened to Cole just before half
Sep 4, 2016, 6:33 PM
[ in reply to i'd bet they were told to stay in bounds during the entire ] |
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in the UofL game in DV.
He was told not to do exactly what he ended up doing, trying to run and tackled short of the goal line with no timeouts remaining.
It cost Clemson at least a try at a short 3 in a very tight game.
Sometimes #### happens, no matter the amount of coaching or reminders. If only there were strings attached when they run on the field, then the Puppeteer would be solely responsible should things go wrong.
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Mascot [21]
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"The only way Gallman going out falls solely on the coaches
Sep 4, 2016, 6:41 PM
[ in reply to You blame the coaches. The only way Gallman going out falls ] |
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is if they instructed him to go out."
What?? I don't get your reasoning. I see two scenarios:
A) He was told to stay in bounds but didn't make an effort to do so. That would be solely on Wayne.
B) He wasn't told to stay in. As an experienced player, he should have known, but regardless the coaches should have made it very clear to the players. In this case, the coaches hold the ultimate responsibility.
Apparently Wayne admitted in the postgame he should have stayed in bounds. Do you think he was told to do so, or not?
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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the only way Gallman would defy the coaches was if he were
Sep 4, 2016, 6:52 PM
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an Iranian Taxi Driver
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Hall of Famer [23112]
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What would those percentages be after BOTH
Sep 4, 2016, 5:53 PM
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a missed extra point and a high snap on a FG ,while taking into consideration Auburn's penchant for last minute miracles since Gus has been at Auburn? Otherwise .....................
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Walk-On [140]
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Re: What would those percentages be after BOTH
Sep 4, 2016, 7:25 PM
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This has been my reasoning as well. I believe Dabo remembered the missed XP and the high snap and it spooked him. In the moment, I was confused. But as I thought about it, I realized that he had the benefit of the doubt. I still would have kicked the FG, but there's a reason why I'm here on this message board and he's the head coach of the #2 team in the country. 
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CU Guru [1767]
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Being an engineering grad you seem reluctant...
Sep 4, 2016, 5:57 PM
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To assert that 2 shots at a 5% Hail Mary would mean a 10% chance of a bad ending for us? We can thank Ol Dr. Byrd and Hoke Hill for that bit of knowledge. Haha. Otherwise, very interesting analysis.
We did have a near disaster high snap on our second FG. Ryan had to all but stand to reel it in. My perception is that Huegel does kick low FGs at times. Perhaps these things were weighing with Dabo? Also, you think maybe Dabo watched the OU vs Houston game earlier that day? I'll bet he watched it with BV?
Having said all of that, I do agree that we should've kicked the FG.
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Team Captain [467]
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Technically, it would be 9.75% (nm)***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:17 PM
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CU Guru [1767]
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Re: Technically, it would be 9.75% (nm)***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:24 PM
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Now, now, Don't confuse the engineers! ??
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Recruit [93]
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Re: Technically, it would be 9.75% (nm)***
Sep 4, 2016, 6:37 PM
[ in reply to Technically, it would be 9.75% (nm)*** ] |
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Actually I believe the odds would be 10.8033% success rate.......but I digress! ??
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CU Guru [1767]
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Re: Technically, it would be 9.75% (nm)***
Sep 4, 2016, 7:00 PM
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Okay can we all agree it's around 10%. Lol. You guys work out the mutually exclusive vs non-mutually exclusive, dependent vs independent probability arguments. I have canned SAS and R programs to do the heavy lifting for the statistics I have to wrestle. Too lazy to try to determine who is right here.
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All-TigerNet [10402]
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Re: I looked up the odds of completing Hail mary
Sep 4, 2016, 6:03 PM
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The first one last night they had 3 players in the end zone with only one of our players back there.
They all ran by us and we got lucky an Auburn player didn't catch it.
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Orange Blooded [2663]
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the odds of a blocked FG being run back may well be
Sep 4, 2016, 6:08 PM
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less than 5%. The odds of them, with 40 seconds left, blocking the field goal and running the kick back to a reasonable position for a good shot at the endzone, though, are higher than that. Really, I understand why people don't like the decision, but there are lots of things that get done in backgammon that don't always work either. People still do them, because the odds are simply a little better one way than another. I seem to recall that Oliver Purnell had two games in one season in which he instructed the team to foul and put somebody on the line for two, rather than letting someone take a three-point shot, and we ended up losing both of them. It didn't make his decision bad. He was playing the odds.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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the impressive thing here is that you invoked Oliver Purnell
Sep 4, 2016, 6:13 PM
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into a football thread where people aren't happy with Dabo Swinney...
well done
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Mascot [21]
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I noticed someone has voted for you 28 times today.
Sep 4, 2016, 6:24 PM
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and still counting. Even for the dumbest ####, of which there is a lot. Seems like someone has a few handles.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Hi Stanley, you'd know about that wouldn't you...
Sep 4, 2016, 6:29 PM
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Goodbye, Stanley.
@B-Meist
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CU Medallion [60228]
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Varsity [231]
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Re: the odds of a blocked FG being run back may well be
Sep 4, 2016, 6:54 PM
[ in reply to the odds of a blocked FG being run back may well be ] |
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The odds aren't 'less than 5%', they are less than 1% (yeah I know less than 1% is also less than 5%, but you know what I mean). That's a significant difference. The odds wouldn't significantly change for a non-TD return. Also, it's funny that everyone who is paranoid about the blocked FG return completely ignores the fumble return possibility.
It boils down to are you more likely to make a 34 yd FG, or convert 4th and 4. It's the FG, and it's not close. Even more so if you run on 4th and 4. If the 2 options were close, then you can factor in the low probability disastrous outcome scenarios. Playing the odds is kicking the FG. It was a very bad decision.
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Legend [16902]
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Re: I looked up the odds of completing Hail mary
Sep 4, 2016, 6:40 PM
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I would bet that mistakes on special teams are much higher in college than in the pros. Whereas similarly talented individuals trying to catch or bat down a jump ball is probably about the same. And maybe Coach Swinney remembers FSU derailing their season on just such a olay against GT last year.
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Head Coach [759]
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I think it has nothing to do with block kick 6.
Sep 4, 2016, 7:14 PM
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The odds are between making a field goal and converting a 4th and 4. Given that Greg had missed his last kick (a PAT), I can't blame Dabo for hedging the odds in the other direction.
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Legend [17626]
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What are the odds
Sep 4, 2016, 7:20 PM
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Of making that FG after your kicker missed the PAT, jacked a kickoff OOB, had 2 ugly kicks, and a high snap? Impossible to say, but Dabo saw what was going on in the game and made the decision. It turned out to be the right decision despite what the Monday morning quarterbacks say.
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Orange Blooded [3742]
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That's why he went with his gut and not the odds***
Sep 4, 2016, 7:55 PM
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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No, the ~odds Dabo referred to are the specific game odds
Sep 4, 2016, 8:15 PM
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and he said so. In fact saying under a different set of circumstances, the decision may be different.
What you did was fine, but it wasn't the ~odds of this Auburn team versus this Clemson team, including all that had gone right and/or wrong until that moment.
It was a game moment/specific choice.
Understand Auburn was 111th in passing in 2015 and had shown nothing to threaten that in the first 59:20 of the game with no timeouts and with fewer weapons than Gus had at his disposal last year.
If people would have done it differently, so be it, maybe one day they'll wield that power?
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All-TigerNet [10929]
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Are you not growing weary brother?
Sep 4, 2016, 8:28 PM
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I admire your constitution in this arena.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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How goes, NP? And never, this is the good stuff & I enjoyed
Sep 4, 2016, 8:58 PM
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the OP even if it is a ~bit off.
Even leaving out the ~45 yards Auburn had to gain prior was left out of consideration, the odds of which, in the moment, were long or at least in the coaches' minds as Dabo said they discussed the choices and possibilities - ~all things considered.
Anyway, I hope everyone has a great night and an even better Labor Day.
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All-TigerNet [10929]
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Goes well........you too.***
Sep 4, 2016, 9:04 PM
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