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Ring of Honor [21104]
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Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 1:41 PM
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BTW...this is a long post...if you don't like reading, bail out now, and spare us the TLDR's. You've been warned. ">">">
My take on what's happening: I think we're caught in a state of transition that's a whole lot bigger than Dabo Swinney, or any coach on the Clemson staff, and pointing fingers is useless right now. The ground has totally shifted under college football's feet...to the point I don't think you can really even properly call it "college football" anymore. The bigger teams in college football are no longer college teams, they're second-tier pro teams...and Clemson, like a lot of universities, is trying to figure out the way forward. Or backwards.
A look at other sports leagues in other countries offers a pretty good insight into what's happening to us. Americans have this idea that college sports are completely separate from pro sports, but in most other places that distinction blurred way back. If you look, for instance, at Liga MX, the Mexican soccer league, you see teams with names like U.N.A.M. Pumas and Tigres UANL...the "U" means exactly what you think it does; those were former college teams that grew into pro teams. You look across the pond, you see English clubs with names like Oxford AFC and Cambridge AFC that were once connected to those colleges, and even big monster clubs like Real Madrid and Sporting Club Portugal started as college squads back in the day. Real Madrid current payroll is $319 million in 2024, about a hundred million more than any NFL team.
Hey, look, it's the Tigers...a college soccer team with a $35 million payroll that plays in the Mexican pro league.
America's system of differentiating between the NFL and college teams has always been unique and artificial. And, ultimately, untenable, because what we had was a small monopoly of elite pro teams in the NFL with massively-paid professional players and then teams of amateur student-athletes who weren't directly compensated and who were not even allowed to make money off their image and likeness...despite producing massive financial value for their institutions. Both were, on paper, unconstitutional...and half of that state of affairs got cracked a couple years ago when student-athletes won the court case that gave them the right to their own NIL deals. At that point, the old rules were swept aside, the forced amateurism of college sports was broken...and compensation instantly became the prime determinant of who got the best talent. The teams that get, spend.
The other half of the equation is the artificial monopoly the NFL has always enjoyed. America is arguably the least democratic sports nation in the world in that regard. In other countries, most have a promotion/relegation system where all sports teams have at least theoretical access to the top leagues. If you win enough you get promoted up to higher leagues - see what's been happening with Ryan Reynold's Wrexham FC the last few years, they started as semi-pros clear down in the fifth division of English soccer - and if you lose too much, your whole team gets sent down to the minors.
Can a fifth-tier semi-pro team from Wales make it to the English Premier League? These guys think so...and they're halfway there.
The NFL's monopoly actually got broken - theoretically - clear back in 1986, when the fledgling USFL - spearheaded by (cough) Donald Trump - won an anti-trust lawsuit against the NFL, which should have opened the floodgates to other franchises entering the opened league. Just one small problem: the USFL had been suing for $1.32 billion, but the damage the jury awarded was the amount of - I do not kid - $1...which then-NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle gleefully threw down on the desk in front of Trump on the way out of the courtroom. (This was not one of his shining moments.) So the NFL's monopoly remained intact, and without access, second-tier pro teams couldn't find a niche between the NFL and college football, and all ultimately folded. (Google it sometime, it's a fascinating story if you haven't heard about it.)
Donald Trump, owner of the USFL's New Jersey Generals, with his star running back, some guy called Herschel Walker.
My guess is, now that the barrier to professionalism has been cracked and college teams are now compensating their players, we're going to see that decision revisited, and soon. The NFL has already lost that decision once and next time, I suspect they're going to get hit for a lot more than $1...and more than likely way more than even the $1.32 billion they were being sued for in 1986.
We're already seeing the massive effect NIL money is having on the college game. I just moved out of Ohio a couple months back, and I can tell you Ohio State spent $20+ million on players this past offseason via NIL deals. There's nothing "collegic" about that. It's also the tip of the iceberg; NFL teams have a salary cap of about $224.8 million, which means there's a mile of ground between here and there that's going to get rapidly filled up as the college arms race heats up and the free market takes over. And it's not going to be long at all before the big boys of college football are back challenging the NFL for access...and this time, I think the anti-trust faction is going to win and win bigly. In ten years time - probably less - the best college teams of today will be NFL teams. It's coming.
My guess is we'll see at least three tiers of pro teams with a pro/rel system at some point in the near future. The current NFL is 32 teams and there's more than enough room for an NFL 2 and NFL 3, with another 64 college-teams-turned-pro-teams filling those ranks, we could even see 4 or 5 tiers. (England's a fifth the size of the US in terms of population and they have five pro tiers.) And the distinction between "NFL" and "everybody else" is going to blur.
So the real question here is: what does Clemson want to become? Right now we're in an awkward in-between state, trying to remain a team of student-athletes in what's becoming an incredibly fast-evolving pro football landscape...and we're going to have to decide. Either Go Big and join the arms race, and try to build up a football program that can compete with other second-division pro teams and probably eventually compete with NFL teams, or go smaller, and remain a college team, competing against the programs that will remain attached to their college institutions...and there will be more than a few of those. I don't see the Ivy League or smaller football schools like Vanderbilt or Furman or Wofford ever going pro. But there is vastly less money in that, too. Look at the crowds those schools draw; that's where we'll be if we go that route.
And that's the conversation that's going to have to happen if we want to compete wherever we're at. For those who say: "we can never compete with NFL teams"...that may have been true, 20 years ago. But the Upstate is now the #27 media market in the US...bigger than that of a number of NFL squads, and certainly bigger than the Athens or Columbus markets Georgia and Ohio state occupy. But it's going to take a fundamental reorganization of our program to get there and keep pace with the Georgias and Ohio States too.
I know this may seem incredibly unpalatable to some. I know I don't particularly like it either. But today's here, and we're going to need to make a decision on where we're going tomorrow. So the question is: what do we want to do?
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Paw Master [17014]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 1:42 PM
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TLDR...
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Varsity [140]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 2, 2024, 5:36 AM
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Clemson hasn't improved in 4 years, Dabo is solely responsible for this happening.
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Hall of Famer [8832]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 1:48 PM
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In your analysis does alumni size figure into your equation? A lot of the other schools we compete against have far superior number of alumni. I get that we are in the #27 media market, but not sure how that gets balanced against one of the smaller alumni bases.
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Ring of Honor [21104]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 2:20 PM
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That's sort of what I mean, though. Right now we're a college team so alumni base means a lot more. But the days of "student athletes" at the big schools is rapidly coming to an end; in the SEC that term's been a joke for decades now.
At some point in the very near future, the NCAA will almost without question dump the whole convoluted "NIL" nonsense and just allow college players to be what they effectively are already: professional athletes that happen to be employed by universities, that are now also in the business of operating sports franchises. And players will start getting paid directly...and not long after, everyone will collectively shrug their shoulders and decide the "student athletes" don't even need to be students if they don't want to be, and since they're no longer students, they don't have to leave after four years and a redshirt season either.
And at that point, the "Clemson" part of the name will matter a lot less than the performance and competitiveness of the Tigers franchise. And media market will matter a whole lot more.
Just my opinion, but once the floodgates opened, the rest seems kind of...inevitable, you know?
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Orange Beast [6455]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 1, 2024, 2:36 PM
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And do you think the school will go that direction? I do not. I think Dabo has made it pretty clear he doesn’t want to be a part of professional college sports and the university doesn’t seem to be inclined to disagree with him. Especially considering their unwavering support of his current approach.
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Clemson Conqueror [12093]
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I think we're close to actually agreeing on something
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Sep 1, 2024, 1:49 PM
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I wish the way we ran sports in this country was more "private club" style like England than the public school -> college scholarship -> pro league.
Our system rewards people who peak at 15-16, which ultimately reduces the quality of the sport in question. The club system allows for more choice among participants, it allows for upward mobility of players, it gives the opportunity for better player development, etc.
There's more I could say about it but the bottom line is this: the current college system is and has been a fraud for a long time.
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Orange Beast [6455]
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Re: I think we're close to actually agreeing on something
Sep 1, 2024, 2:27 PM
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I agree about player development being a problem. The NFL has become a perform now or throw away league.
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Ring of Honor [21104]
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Re: I think we're close to actually agreeing on something
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Sep 1, 2024, 2:55 PM
[ in reply to I think we're close to actually agreeing on something ] |
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Hey, we do agree on something.
Some top players in world soccer were phenoms from the get-go. Lionel Messi was. Christiano Ronaldo was. There's a kid coming up through the Philadelphia Union's system called Cavan Sullivan, he's all of 14 years old...and already playing game against MLS teams. He looks like he could well be one of those, we've never seen anyone like him before in America. Well at least not since (cough) Freddy Adu, who is now a cautionary tale.
But far more players peak in their mid-20's, some of them even later. Especially with big strikers and keepers, where movement and positioning and understanding is far more important than raw speed, you see most of them not peak until age 30 or so and many of them play until their late 30's, sometimes even longer. Zlatan Ibrahimovic played until he was 41, if memory serves. Kai Kamara is about to turn 40 and he's still banging them in for LAFC. But they also don't just get thrown away...if they flame out in, say, the EPL, they can go down to the second or third divisions or even some other league in Europe, refine their games, and maybe make their way back to the bigs later on in their careers. Major League Baseball has something similar going with its farm-league affiliates.
When there's only 32 pro teams with only 53 spots apiece, as is the case with the NFL, if you fail at any stage, you're gone, and there really is no way back.
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Orange Blooded [2179]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 2:01 PM
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This is the most comprehensive explanation I have heard yet. We will see what happens in the next dozen years or so. Meanwhile, how do we fix the offense? Buy better players, buy better coaches or buy a better television market?
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Orange Blooded [2373]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 2:18 PM
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Our offense is still to be determine for this year but in the future recruiting will not get it done if you want to win. I know Dabo or I want to hear this but we are getting beat by transfers from other schools that were not highly recruited. We must start playing the portal game and I feel like pay some freshman to come here each year.
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Valley Legend [12135]
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Thank you for pointing out it's NOT "College Football" anymore! It's
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Sep 1, 2024, 2:12 PM
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Professional Football played at Colleges by guys who, in many cases, are just passing through. They have no more connection to the University than some lost tribes in the Amazonian rain forest.
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Tiger Titan [46071]
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While I agree that these issues need to be sorted out
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Sep 1, 2024, 2:33 PM
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they do not explain or excuse the fact that we have what appear to be major issues with our team.
We are not maximizing our top 5 talent, and we haven’t for years. We have a huge payroll for our $11 million a year coach, an offensive coordinator making $2 million a year, co-defensive coordinators around $1 million a year each, and position coaches hand-picked by Dabo. We have elite facilities, supportive and engaged fans, and an administration that is highly aligned with the success of our football program.
We are underachieving for what appears to be the fourth year in a row, which is culminating in what I consider to be a six year fall from greatness. It’s sad to see, and it was all preventable.
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CU Medallion [20019]
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Re: While I agree that these issues need to be sorted out
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Sep 1, 2024, 5:53 PM
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Good lord dude give it up. Go worry about Brad and what he is doing.
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Freshman [-50]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 1, 2024, 2:59 PM
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Very enlightening and I learned something on this half useless forum today.
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All-Pro [771]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
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Sep 1, 2024, 3:55 PM
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"America's system of differentiating between the NFL and college teams has always been unique and artificial."
This sentence speaks volumes and has always baffled men, especially in a free market. Thank you for the detailed discussion.
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Standout [231]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 1, 2024, 4:50 PM
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and when college football becomes the minor league for the NFL Colleges will find out real fast that minor league teams do not fill 80,000 person stadiums and the corresponding revenue decline will follow
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All-Pro [771]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 1, 2024, 4:59 PM
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and when college football becomes the minor league for the NFL Colleges will find out real fast that minor league teams do not fill 80,000 person stadiums and the corresponding revenue decline will follow
Minor leaque don't have this historic fan base that are a strong independent Brand. Over time that may fade but it will takes decades/multiple generations.
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Redshirt [98]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 1, 2024, 5:40 PM
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Ok , so now I know what the pro and semi pro systems are doing through out the world.. and possibly where the game is going, but it still doesn't answer the questions of Dabo refusing to conform to the game today. Clemson is the only one outta 134 D1 teams doing this ####... it's very disheartening.
His lack of accepting the way the sports has evolved has put Clemson at a disadvantage in a sport that pays him and his coaches $15 mil a year.
You cannot operate a business as a head CEO like Dabo is operating this team. Being defiant because of a some moral compass does not get the job done , and any company in the world would fire your ### .. Dabo's reluctance for 4+ years has cost us recruits, players, branding , and national respect.
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Game Day Hero [4250]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 2, 2024, 1:32 AM
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Thanks quozzel. Brilliant and insightful as always. I always learn something when you post.
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Rock Defender [50]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 2, 2024, 5:05 AM
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As always, Quozzel, you provide great insight.
I think the NIL market is just the tip of the iceberg. Payroll will be 60 million plus for the top 40 or so schools by 2035.
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Recruit [68]
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Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes...
Sep 2, 2024, 8:18 AM
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Payroll already over 20+ million at a lot of schools now. It's going to grow faster than you can say Triple T's
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Letterman [157]
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NFL finds a way to pay the players more than that...
Sep 2, 2024, 3:48 PM
[ in reply to Re: Had a couple people ask for my take so here goes... ] |
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I have been pretty skeptical of how we would be able to support a payroll like that. I know the NFL manages to do it. I guess I need to look at what a NFL set of season tickets cost. Because I guess that is where we are going with this.. Not sure I will be able to afford a season ticket. I already have to sell some of my tickets to help cover the cost. It works out because I can't realistically go to all the games right now because of kids and there activities, etc. But was hoping that in the future I could return to going most weekends.
Anyway. It just comes down to more money.. I guess we will see how hot I can stand the water before I have to jump out of the pot.
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Replies: 22
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