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Topic: For you guys with X and O knowledge
Replies: 8   Last Post: Jan 13, 2020, 2:47 PM by: Tobias27772
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For you guys with X and O knowledge


Jan 13, 2020, 12:46 PM
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What is the one thing (within reason) that if it happens, we win?

We have two TD drives of 10 plays or more?
We win the turnover battle?
A TD in the return game?
Allow fewer than 5 chunk plays of 20 yards or more?
100 yards on the ground for ETN?
Record 4 sacks or more?

Interested to hear your serious answers. I am thinking that time of possession may be a big factor. If we can keep their defense on the field, we can keep their offense off of it, and give their defense "cramp" problems.

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I don't think Dabo has lost a game where the RB has rushed

[2]
Jan 13, 2020, 12:48 PM
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for 100

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Re: For you guys with X and O knowledge

[2]
Jan 13, 2020, 12:52 PM
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10 play drives for us are few and far between. The turnover margin may be key but in reality the biggest impact will be redzone defense. We hold teams to FG's and Mississippi and Vandy showed LSU gives up chunks on the ground and can be overwhelmed with a little creativity. LSU's defense gives up chunks tonight to #9, and then #5 and #8 feast in one on one matchups. LSU has to keep a spy on Lawrence but even that won't work because of his size and mobility.

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Good info...so what is your "if/then" statement?***


Jan 13, 2020, 12:53 PM
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Re: For you guys with X and O knowledge

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Jan 13, 2020, 12:56 PM
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I don't have any guarantees but I'll take a shot with a few:

Things that give us 85% chance to win or better (IMO):

LSU 30 points or less. (I'm really big on this one)
Burrow with 2+ INTs or 3+ turnovers of any kind from their O.
Trevor more passing yards than Burrow. (This one is hard to imagine)
ETN with 100 yards from scrimmage in first half. (Only exception is if he has one really long play and does little else.)

Things that really improve our chances but not as much as the above list:

No turnovers for our team.
We score a non-offensive TD.
ETN 175 total yards.
LSU with no TDs of 30+ yards.
Clemson team gets 75 yards rushing between the tackles.

Obviously crazy things can happen outside of these predictions and some of them may not be very likely, but I think all of these things would have a pretty big impact on the game.

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Re: For you guys with X and O knowledge


Jan 13, 2020, 1:03 PM
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I would say 100 for Etienne, because it would likely mean success early. If we have problems running early, I don't know how many touches he gets in the run game.

If you are talking likelihood of one, I might go with turnovers. I think that we will protect the ball better, and might have a 2+ advantage which could be huge.

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Re: For you guys with X and O knowledge

[1]
Jan 13, 2020, 1:05 PM
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I believe if we get 200 on the ground/in air we win going away. Let’s test their front 7 with Etienne. If he goes off, game over.

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Re: For you guys with X and O knowledge

[1]
Jan 13, 2020, 1:28 PM
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Turnover battle is a much better predictor of wins than other metrics.

Which makes the year we won a national championship with a negative turnover ratio even more amazing.

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Re: For you guys with X and O knowledge

[1]
Jan 13, 2020, 2:47 PM
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There are plenty of things that could fit in that if . . . then we win scenario

so I am going to give y'all one that I think fits AND is likely

If Clemson is +2 in the turnover ration, then they will win !

I'll go one more ( alilttle less likely)

If LSU kicks 3 or more red zone FGs, then Clemson will win !

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