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The real estate market...
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Replies: 67  

The real estate market...

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:05 AM
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Do you think it continues to skyrocket over the next 2 years or do you see something different?

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Re: The real estate market...

[4]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:10 AM
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MauldinT, where are you???


Re: The real estate market...

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:12 AM
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That looks promising.

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the foreclosure market will be interesting to watch

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:12 AM
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not sure how many folks can keep pace with the mortgage payments on these overpriced $mil homes.
Underwater will be a way of life.

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I don't think it will be foreclosures

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:14 AM
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I would be interested to know how much of these overpriced mortgages are variable vs. fixed.

If most new mortgages are fixed, I don't see foreclosures just people underwater on houses and can't move or sell.

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I believe this is correct.

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:18 AM
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Cheaper rates incentivized over-borrowing, but payments were still manageable from a sustainability issue. People will be stuck, but not homeless.

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Depends.

[4]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:13 AM
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Depends on many factors. Too many to make any kind of prediction.

You'd think the rate in which prices are rising will have to level off at some point.

That said, transactions are lower but prices are higher right now. If prices level off and transactions increase, I'm not sure I would call that a cooling off of the market as much as a shift in how things are going.

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Re: Depends.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:17 AM
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I am no expert, but I think people will still want to sell there overpriced stuff in cold weather and move to the Carolinas. I think we might be a little more insulated??? I don't know though. I am kind of looking for a reasonable investment property(first one), but wondering if the time is bad. Hmm. I think I believe in the Carolinas though.

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Eh, "carolinas" is too vague.

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:33 AM
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If in Raleigh, Charlotte, Greenville, Charleston, or coastal SC I can't see that being a terrible decision. If in Goldsboro or wherever TF FBCoachSC® is, I'd be more skeptical.

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Not necessarily.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:55 AM
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For pure investment, there are some hidden gems in the two Carolinas even if the glitz of the waterfront or a mountaintop isn't a deciding factor in the decision. If you know what's coming to certain areas and how to position a property, you might be shocked at some of the places that are good buys right now.

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Re: Not necessarily.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:56 AM
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Where are the hidden gems?

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I think I'll hold my cards close to the vest on this one.

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:06 AM
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I'll just say that investment property is more than just flipping houses or slum lording rental property, and that a little patience and creativity can go a long way in the current market.

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He is saying INVEST HEAVILY IN THE CHESTER, SC

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:09 AM
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MARKET TODAY!!!!!!!

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I'm not saying that.

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:18 AM
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But I'm also not NOT saying that.



Let's just say that there's recurring revenue from the county for pauper's graveyards on dirt-cheap land in certain places.

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you are obviously not on the proper mailing lists

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:22 AM
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Oh yeah I am.

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:31 AM
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Amazing that the same properties that are being IMMEDIATELY LIQUIDATED IN A ONE DAY SALE are available every month for the last three years.

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Anything relatively close to the interstate in between

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:47 AM
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Greenville and Anderson is a good bet right now.

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Re: Depends.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:35 AM
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First one in many years I should say. I bought one(investement property) once. I made 100k in 2 years. I thought I was a genius. I bought it for 178k. I put 18k down. I would have made a million if I would have held and not been such a genius. I will put a link below. Just a 2br 2bath condo. I could see the Carolinas getting like that. Could it?

http://www.bcre.com/seabluffe-homes-encinitas.php


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Seems like it's cooling off around me a bit

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:13 AM
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Although anything under $300k or so is still moving really fast. Higher end homes seem to be sitting longer though, I suspect that may change if there's another round of covid insanity in certain areas that causes another exodus.

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Depends on the area, and if the WFH trend stays permanent or

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:16 AM
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fades. I would expect a 10-15% correction in housing prices in that time for places that aren't being truly impacted by population growth. Plus, as prices fall in major urban areas (Bay, NYC, etc) the population drain flooding into the south will subside. Tariff relaxation on imported lumber and other construction material, and better immigration laws, may also create greater parity in building versus buying existing homes that is skewed currently. The only folks I would be truly concerned about are those that took advantage of cheap interest rates and over-borrowed; for them a 10-15% drop in equity might hurt if they're looking short-term for ownership. But, fortunately with cheap rates, most will be able to weather the coming correction with relative ease. It may take longer to rebuild equity, but it won't be the housing crash of the early ots.

There will be some other markets though where the surge in prices continues, albeit at a less extreme clip. I think of the Charlotte market in particular. Population growth here will continue through the next decade (I heard one stat where they liken it to absorbing the entire population of Cleveland over that timeline). Additionally, the young professionals moving to CLT for financial and fintech jobs, who are currently renting, will be looking to buy in the medium to long-range, propping up housing prices in the immediate and extended suburbs. Additionally, light rail plans could see a boon to housing prices in these areas as well.

One more thing to add, I know very little about real estate markets.

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"light rail plans"

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:20 AM
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Got a submittal due this week on that

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What's your connection to it?

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:29 AM
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I was initially down on the idea, but seeing the already noticeable impact of population growth over the last few years, it's inevitable, and for the best. I'm happing to see Charlotte pursuing zoning reform which can help with housing density, but as one city planner said, we can't build our way out of the housing affordability issues. The Silver line plans to connect east Charlotte burbs is going to be really helpful. And, given that we're about 2 miles from a proposed silver line stop, looking forward to the property value lift that comes from proximity to it.

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Without too much information, I either work for the designer

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:40 AM
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or a sub to the designer of the silverline project.

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What hes trying to say is

emoji_events [7]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:58 AM
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He has a train set at home and thinks hes part of the project.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsonrulez08.jpg flag link

Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Awesomesauce.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:51 AM
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Without divulging too much information, please tell me the Galleria stop will officially be known simply as, "Walmart." With the period.

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Given the low inventories relative to sales, we are likely

[4]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:16 AM
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headed for another Spring and Summer of rapidly rising prices.

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Re: The real estate market...

[4]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:21 AM
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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Re: The real estate market...

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:22 AM
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Has this topic been covered?

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At length, BUT I was more so nodding to

[4]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:27 AM
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the fact this thread might result in an Ineligible user® v. FBCoachSC® shitoff.

In the Triangle area though, its gotten to a point of insanity. We started looking in April and our max budget was $700k. That slowly dipped to $600k when every single home was going $65k to $120k over asking. We got super lucky in landing our house (even though we bought it sight unseen). I still check zillow about once a week to see how the market is looking. To meet our quality of living and size/room/bathroom requirements... wed already be priced out. To get a true move in ready home right now within 540, you are looking at a $750k asking price.

My SIL and BIL bought a house "Inside the Beltline" which is 440 in Raleigh in December last year for $775k. If they wanted to sell today, theyd clear $1M.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsonrulez08.jpg flag link

Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


you could combine most of what has been said in this thread

emoji_events [6]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:26 AM
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As long as interest rates remain low (low being <=4%), housing prices will continue to rise. As they rise, housing sales will begin to taper off.

The mass exodus of people who moved due to working from home is probably over. Those who wanted to move, have. Housing sales now are primarily investment vehicles, either for large REITS, or investment co-ops. Because of this, rent is skyrocketing, and a lot of people will buy because it will simply be cheaper to own than rent.

Cheaper houses, and houses that are priced right, will continue to move quickly. There have been a lot of people who gave up and just sat out the market who at some point, will suck it up and get back in.

I don't see prices lowering or going backwards. Nothing is driving that. There is so little inventory available in most markets that there is no reason to lower an already correctly priced house. Will prices continue to raise at the rate they have? I just don't think that 20%-30% increases per year are sustainable, but I thought that last year too, and look how that turned out. At some point the biggest downward pressure on housing prices are the prices themselves.

I think rising oil prices can change all of this, and if they continue to rise, and adding in supply chain problems, nothing can slow an economy faster.

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I think inflation will kill the housing market faster

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:30 AM
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than anything else. That includes higher prices on oil like you said.

If lumber would ever go down, you would see home sales go down as well.

Right now it's crazy expensive to just add on, much less build

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I doubt inflation will kill the market.

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:33 AM
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It would just cause the prices to not artificially increase.

As long as money is cheap, and inflation continues, it makes sense to buy a house now, rather than later.

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I'm thinking inflation as a percentage of a homeowner's

emoji_events [5]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:35 AM
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budget.

Assuming that a lot of these overpriced homes have a mortgage that is a majority of the new owner's budget.

Then prices on everything including gas, groceries etc rise, will it trigger some forclosures from people who maxed out their budget to afford that overpriced home

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that was my thought too

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:40 AM
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not so much your mortgage payment going up, but cost of everything else (groceries, gas, clothes, taxes, etc) busting the monthly budget. And refinancing won't be a viable option if % rates increase.

There's some unavoidable misery ahead for many households.


Man, I'm SO glad my house is 100% paid for and I'm fully content with where I live.

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Imagine needing to finance and you bought your house

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:43 AM
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for 20% over what the appraisal said it's worth.

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Unless you put 20% more down, you won't be buying it.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:45 AM
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I mean, if you are financing it.

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Meant refinance***

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:02 AM
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Why would you refinance at a higher interest rate?

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:04 AM
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Do you expect rates to go lower than they were in January '21 (2.65% for 30yr)?

Housing values have gone up almost 20% since then.

I have no idea what you are taking about here.

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Didn't know I needed to spell it out for you

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:09 AM
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this is hypothetical.

I can't afford over a 2000 mortage payment.

I find a house that is 20% over asking for a 2000 mortgage payment.

The price of everything else in my budget goes up (inflation) meaning I can't afford my 2000 mortgage anymore.

I can't refinance because I'm already underwater on the house.

I can't move because I would take a massive loss.

For these purposes let's say interest rates stay the same

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So when are houses going down 20%?

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:12 AM
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And why can't you afford your payment any longer?

Are you just inventing a huge recession as some sort of "what if"?

Anything is possible, but its a extreme, remote chance that anything you are saying is remotely possible in the foreseeable future.

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What the #### are you talking about?***

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:51 AM
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Funny..I'm asking you the same thing***

[1]
Nov 30, 2021, 12:37 PM
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We'd love to build an addition, but I think that is

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:35 AM
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(at least) five years out. We ballparked $50k to add a downstairs master, and potentially a second floor sun room above it...and I'm not sure that would even get us a half-bath right now.

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We got a quote for a 10x25 addition, not additional rooms,

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:37 AM
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just adding to what's already there.

11k just to dry in. No finish work

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That doesn't seem terrible

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:47 AM
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Are you gambling that it may go down in the future?

Your biggest problem wont be the price, it will be getting someone to do a job that small. I have a buddy that sells sunrooms; his average cost for a sunroom is a little more than that.

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I'm hoping lumber prices go down eventually***

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:58 AM
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10x25 extension to the back of the house

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:59 AM
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creating a larger master bed and a separate master bath. Plenty of work for a 4 man crew

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You do know that the same "crew" won't do all that work

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:06 AM
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right? Rough framing, finish framing, electrical, plumbing. flooring, finish carpentry, painting...all different jobs.

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Yes, I know how construction works

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:12 AM
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That's why contractors have crews.

I worked with contractors for 6 years

They want to big projects but also have crews to work on smaller projects.

Or if work slowed down on big projects like it has recently thanks to lumber prices, they take the little jobs to keep cash flowing.

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What kind of contractors did you work with?

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:20 AM
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Because it doesn't sound you like you understand how any of this works at all.

Bigger (and smaller) projects haven't slowed down just because YOU can't afford your addition. Housing starts and remodels are up everywhere, which will require every trade you need to build to build your room.

Anecdotal Example: Where I'm buying is having problems getting contractors to stay on the job long enough to finish a job--thats why my house is still under construction. Lumber prices haven't affected contractors at all.

Why do you continually live in a bizzaro world or something?

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big builds like whole homes have gone down

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:54 AM
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you are correct that remodels and additions haven't slowed down.

I just can't make myself pay the increased cost of lumber until the mill issues are resolved and we see where we are.

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housing starts have not gone down***

[1]
Nov 30, 2021, 12:37 PM
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$44/SF dry. How much for finishes? That seems on par for

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:04 AM
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that size of job.

I am not a contractor though.

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grade of slaw

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:32 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/home-price-hikes-slow-down-according-to-sp-case-shiller.html


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These articles are difficult to rate

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:41 AM
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Because all markets are local.

I look around me, and houses are still going up; even from 2 months ago. I mean look at this Bengalined pic. There is one house for sale that <1M in the OV/Old Mt pleasant. The only caveat here is that it is a slow time of year, and a lot more houses will come up for sale in Jan/Feb/early spring.



11 days ago this house came on the market down the street from me. When we first moved in here I told my wife this would be a kind of neat place to have on the island because its kind of a bunker. It went under contract the same day it went for sale. Rumor says it went for above asking price, but I have no way to prove that yet.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2200-Waterway-Blvd-Isle-Of-Palms-SC-29451/10936082_zpid/

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they are pretty much written around "Typical Suburbia, USA"

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 11:01 AM
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a niche market that is considered "destination", like on the coast, lake, growing city, etc., the national average statistical numbers certainly do not apply.

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dude needs to raise interest rates big time

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:36 AM
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if he does, it will crash

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Re: dude needs to raise interest rates big time

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:43 AM
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That's why I was thinking to get in now before too late. On the other hand, I am not alone....so??

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So why would interest rates go up?

[3]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:43 AM
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Powell won't be doing that any time soon. As a country, we can't afford to do that due to the debt.

Another way to kill inflation? Raise taxes.

I fully expect to see that happen.

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you think he'd raise taxes on the MC?

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:46 AM
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that'd be a bold move cotton

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MC?***

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:48 AM
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middle class***

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:50 AM
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I'd bet taxes raise on everyone with household incomes

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:53 AM
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at least over $400k..maybe even lower.

He promised $400k tax inceases during his campaign.

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IMO,

[4]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:44 AM
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Wages rising -> continued inflation -> substantial rise in interest rates -> cooling of the market, not a crash. Some of that will be offset as foreign investment in real estate continues to bounce back, post-pandemic. This is what to expect over the next 12 months. The next significant "event" in the housing market will occur when baby boomers finally begin to shed property ~2030.

All that said, I'm totally just guessing here and you shouldn't take my opinion seriously for anything, ever.

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Re: IMO,

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:47 AM
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Keep an eye(2030) on good deal in Florida is what I read between the lines.

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In a fiat economy, inflation is growth.

[2]
Nov 30, 2021, 10:52 AM
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You don't expect to buy a a house at 1990 or 2000 costs do you?

2021 may prove to just have been a very fast correction.

Or not.

Just because they went up, doesn't mean they will come down.

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Again, caveat this with "what do I know..."

[1]
Nov 30, 2021, 12:49 PM
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But it may take a cultural shift towards people once again packing city-centers in rental/condo properties to ease the strain on SFH inventory and drop the prices back down. Given that it looks like we may be towards the beginning of the shift away from city centers (CA/WA/NYC specifically), this shift could be decades away.

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I figured all the condos getting built were due to a couple

[1]
Nov 30, 2021, 12:53 PM
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reasons

-houses have gone up so much that many people can't afford them

-Condos are a consistent revenue stream for investors (until they turn into chitty apartments in 10-15 years)

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