Replies: 13
| visibility 657
|
CU Guru [1027]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 863
Joined: 8/23/04
|
Brutally tough Hypothetical question
May 4, 2020, 9:08 PM
|
|
Because I’m pretty sure I don’t really understand.
If every “otherwise healthy” person in this country below the age of 70, i.e. no co-morbidities, was exposed to the Corona virus, what would the mortality rate look like?
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [11252]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 6674
Joined: 11/23/03
|
Re: Brutally tough Hypothetical question
May 4, 2020, 9:17 PM
|
|
Probably depends on what day of the week we're talking about.
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3389]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3043
Joined: 10/22/07
|
I don’t this we’re even remotely
May 4, 2020, 9:26 PM
|
|
close to answering that question for a subset of Americans, much less the population as a whole.
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [8984]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9784
Joined: 4/27/13
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [24477]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 13968
Joined: 7/3/01
|
Unless I missed it in the article, I dont think the
May 4, 2020, 11:47 PM
|
|
quoted numbers took out co-morbidity. There was total %, and co-morbidity %, but not total w/o co-issues, if I read it correctly.
I think the most recent numbers show that a healthy under-60 year old has a low fatality rate, and not all that much higher up to 70. I am 65, 6', 185, avg b.p., run about 8 miles a week. I was tested last week, was almost disappointed it was negative: wanted to be past it. As you implied, the estimated infections goes up all the time, the fatality rate dropping.
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [8984]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9784
Joined: 4/27/13
|
Re: Unless I missed it in the article, I dont think the
May 5, 2020, 12:15 AM
|
|
we may never know the true numbers, but i think you would kick that virus butt
why did you get tested?
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [24477]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 13968
Joined: 7/3/01
|
I think you're right: there seems to be a lot of pressure
May 5, 2020, 1:02 AM
|
|
and politics involved in the numbers. Right now they are easier to manipulate: how accurate or pervasive the anecdotal accounts of pressure to overstate covid deaths are, I don't know, and may never know, and does the actual death count become more accurate as it gets larger? Don't know. The longer this goes, the less I trust any of ir. Those shouting "follow the science!" the loudest are following it the least, it seems.
This is a little off topic, but to me the most worrisome aspect of this is the growing assumption that an individual's and a society's personal autonomy (assuming informed consent) is granted by the state, changeable for whatever reasons a govt decides. "Staying inside saves lives" is the mantra, but so does driving 55 mph. There is no discussion about when, if ever, a govt can tell a person he/she can't feed his family. All we discuss is new cases. Scares me to death.
I was discussing this with a hard core pro lockdown family member yesterday, and I said, "If I know the virus is out there, and I want to help the farmer next door get his crops in, or go to work downtown, no authority on earth has natural standing to tell me I can't do so. I have the human right to manage my own risks." This person responded with, "Yes but you might infect an older person." Here's the scary part. I said, "Right. If a guy goes to work, and if his grandmother in full view of this invites him over for dinner that night, and both of them in full knowledge of the situation decide to do that, that is their rightful decision. Her response? 'I guess." You guess?? You're proposing a fundamental shift in the relationship between authority and the individual, and you guess? (I didn't say that part, was just thinking it. But that attitude is scary stuff.)
Reason for testing. I got a case of the actual, plain ol' vanilla flu. The symptoms seemed close enough to corona, plus seemed relatively mild - like corona often does - that my doc sent me for a test. Seriously, the Lovely Mrs Tulsa and I were hoping it was the real deal. We weren't being cowboys about it, but my symptoms didn't seem like they were going to kill me, so I was hoping it was covid. Too bad, just flu.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [60043]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 22503
Joined: 5/24/17
|
Re: I think you're right: there seems to be a lot of pressure
May 5, 2020, 7:45 AM
|
|
Mi wifes grandma has been on the most strict of lockdowns in her nursing home. So much so, they believe she is now depressed from lack of interaction.
Well, she tested positive this weekend for Corona. Everyone coming in and out wear masks, gloves, etc. for the past 12 weeks.
I am convinced that this lockdown was intended for 4-6 weeks, but as we approach 12, this is getting absolutely out of control. We are all going to get this, as we do the flu and my take is may the odds be in your favor.
I was beind someone at the gas station yesterday and they were all masked up, gloves, however buying 8 packs of cigarettes. They are panicking all the while making themselves susceptible to the virus and one foot in the grave due to the likelihood their lungs are already toast.
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [180989]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 94632
Joined: 12/5/10
|
Depends on how bad you need a haircut.
May 4, 2020, 10:14 PM
|
|
or air jordans
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [66054]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 24708
Joined: 6/12/14
|
Hemorrhoid status ?
May 4, 2020, 11:50 PM
|
|
Asking for a friend.
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [16251]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 12783
Joined: 11/14/09
|
12***
May 4, 2020, 11:53 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [17285]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14229
Joined: 12/14/98
|
If you’re in a Manatee County nursing home, not good.
May 5, 2020, 7:32 AM
|
|
Seriously, data and associated statistics appear incomplete / insufficient to form definitive conclusions.
Time and more data will help fill in the blanks. In it he interim, I remain cautious regarding conclusions from any source.
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [21935]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 8589
Joined: 9/11/11
|
in order to answer this question effectively
May 5, 2020, 10:25 AM
|
|
we'll need to see a pig of your wife's teddies to know where y'all fall in the study.
additionally, who ####### cares
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [9664]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11414
Joined: 9/10/99
|
About 1 in 400, so 0.25%
May 5, 2020, 3:06 PM
|
|
Actually - that might be a little high...
|
|
|
|
Replies: 13
| visibility 657
|
|
|