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Bad sign
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Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 3:42 PM

full disclosure - I'm not a gaybear, but my outlook for the next half dozen quarters or so is very bearish. I've posted in the past my macro outlook has been bad for society in general, but from a market standpoint never really been bearish.

The bad sign I'm speaking of is Oil's de-coupling with the equity markets. In hindsight, this was a key step in the summer-ish of 2007. The obvious difference here is the wall of cash the market will run into when they decide to roll it over.

Oil futures are fun to me. Fun to trade fundamentals that are very complex. You have the obvious supply / demand issues we've spoken on ad nauseum here, but you also have the component of the strength of the USD and how that affects price.

We have significantly limited funding to drill here, domestically.

We've created a more monopolistic position for OPEC+.

Demand has crept back up, with forecasts looking bullish for the warmer months to come as travel picks back up.

The dollar should get stronger tho as the Fed starts to tighten, but the Forex market (like the bond market) is just one that I haven't grasped on a conceptual level. Fancy way of saying I don't know enough to make a position on this haha.

Sound energy and sound money are pillars to a good economy for working class citizens. We know the latter is shot to #### and back (blue and red ants unit here- c'mon gaybois). But the first is creeping into the region of having negative impacts to the broader market and us peasants rowing the boat down here.

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Re: Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 3:58 PM



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Re: Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 4:04 PM

You mention sentiment. I think it’s a huge factor. I’ve been an investor for decades and I don’t pretend to understand all the intricate economic details. But I have always observed the sentiment you speak of and right now it’s really bad. It’s a bigger factor than the “experts” acknowledge.

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Re: Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 4:05 PM [ in reply to Re: Bad sign ]

Rf rate still low coupled with inflation will drive more capital to higher risk levels. Fed needs to step on the accelerator with interest rates.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 4:08 PM



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Re: Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 4:12 PM

It has already caused people and institutions to trade outside their risk tolerance. The inflation piece will only worsen that, and that can be dangerous. As a student of finance it will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: Bad sign


Jan 20, 2022, 4:08 PM

What - no triangular arbitrage currency trading for you? Just messing. If you ever fully wrap your mind around the Foreign currency exchange market, let me know.

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

OPEC started a price war with oil, and they won.


Jan 20, 2022, 4:50 PM

When we were pumping tons of oil and flooding the market, we were raking in massive profits, then less and less over time. But OPEC decided then to increase production as a shot at the US production. Oil TANKED. Big oil companies lost many billions as fracking became a loser with $30 oil or less. So they stopped. Now OPEC is in the driver's seat again and big domestic oil companies are scared to lose their ### again by increasing domestic production. Can't blame them. Middle east and Russia handle poorness MUCH better than Americans. They can sweat out FAR more poverty than we can.

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