|
Replies: 125
| visibility 1
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
At this point, why would a healthy young person
Dec 30, 2021, 10:42 AM
|
|
Get the vaccine? Why is there even a discussion on having kids get vaccinated?
Everybody spreads the virus whether you are vaccinated or not. If you are vaxxed and have mild symptoms you will spread the virus just as much as an unvaxxed person with mild symptoms.
Is the argument now about overwhelming the hospitals?
FTR I am vaxxed
|
|
|
|
 |
Oculus Spirit [81061]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 56140
Joined: 9/13/04
|
If for whatever the reason, your body goes apesheet
Dec 30, 2021, 10:44 AM
|
|
and produces a cytokine storm and sends your body into sepsis, shock, and eventual organ failure.
The vaccine may prevent that from ever occurring.
But hey, I'm a "horrible person", so you do whatever you want to do. Or not.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [7207]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9432
Joined: 12/18/13
|
What am I missing?
Dec 30, 2021, 10:52 AM
|
|
If you're vaccinated, you're less likely to spread the virus (cause you're less likely to get it) and your symptoms are milder. Why wouldn't someone get vaccinated other than medical conditions like being immuno compromised?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
When it's looking like the booster drops to under 35%
Dec 30, 2021, 10:59 AM
|
|
effective or so after 10 weeks, what's the point? Is it reasonable to expect people to get boosters every couple of months?
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [7207]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9432
Joined: 12/18/13
|
Not going to get into personal preferences
Dec 30, 2021, 12:32 PM
|
|
but I had no issues with my anthrax vaccine (5 shot series, with boosters every year) so I'm probably fine getting a shot every 3 months. As long as the opportunity costs are low (15 minutes at CVS), I just don't get why people are complaining.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Not going to get into personal preferences
Dec 30, 2021, 10:10 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34586]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 41413
Joined: 4/20/01
|
"less likely to get it"? that's not true***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:15 AM
[ in reply to What am I missing? ] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: What am I missing?
Dec 30, 2021, 11:23 AM
[ in reply to What am I missing? ] |
|
If you're vaccinated, you're less likely to spread the virus (cause you're less likely to get it) and your symptoms are milder. Why wouldn't someone get vaccinated other than medical conditions like being immuno compromised?
Can you provide any evidence of that? We know vaccinated people get it and spread it.
I know of/heard about multiple kids that have developed myocarditis from the vaccine. I do not know/heard of any kids being hospitalized.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [7207]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9432
Joined: 12/18/13
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [40929]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42947
Joined: 11/30/98
|
so, helps with the alpha but not so much with delta
Dec 30, 2021, 4:19 PM
|
|
might explain why a vaxxed person gave me covid even though I was vaxxed
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Hth
Dec 30, 2021, 10:15 PM
[ in reply to Hth ] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1515]
TigerPulse: 88%
Posts: 1763
Joined: 9/6/20
|
Re: Hth
Dec 31, 2021, 7:23 AM
|
|
Because the data is clear, 90+% of the people that are dying are unvaxxed. The original data was for the original virus. People can't seem to grasp that the science keeps changing because the virus keeps changing.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Hth
Dec 31, 2021, 9:58 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1515]
TigerPulse: 88%
Posts: 1763
Joined: 9/6/20
|
Re: Hth
Dec 31, 2021, 10:16 AM
|
|
I still like those odds for the vaxxed and even better for boosted(i.e. "fully vaccinated" right now). I'll have no problem getting in line for the next booster, and maybe it will be a tweak to better cover Omicron. Funny, this seems remarkably similar to the flu shot and why they tweak it every year to cover the predominant strains from the previous year. Nothing new, and yet you don't hear a bunch of idiots screaming their heads off about "the science keeps changing" or "they're trying to control us" like you do with Covid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Hth
Dec 31, 2021, 10:28 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1515]
TigerPulse: 88%
Posts: 1763
Joined: 9/6/20
|
Re: Hth
Dec 31, 2021, 10:34 AM
|
|
Good LUCK!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Hth
Dec 31, 2021, 10:41 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
Botton line, vaccines aren't very effective at preventing
Dec 31, 2021, 8:46 AM
[ in reply to Re: Hth ] |
|
infection or transmission of the virus. They are, however, highly effective at preventing serious illness, hospitilization, and death.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
Because the potential positive far outweighs
Dec 30, 2021, 11:06 AM
|
|
the potential negative.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
I mean, if it takes you from 1 in 1000 being hospitalized
Dec 30, 2021, 11:10 AM
|
|
to 1 in 1100, then why WOULDN'T one take it? The biggest negative is having to spend time in line, or gas to get to a vaccination location, I guess.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
If it takes 4 shots a year of something that we have zero
Dec 30, 2021, 11:14 AM
|
|
knowledge about the long term side effects from, is it still worth it?
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
Not gonna argue hypotheticals.
Dec 30, 2021, 11:17 AM
|
|
It occurs to me as I type that that one could view my previous response as a hypothetical, but it was not intended as such. I just used 1 in 1000 and 1 in 1100 because I don't know the precise numbers. I just know that there is an established reduction in serious illness for those vaccinated.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
One study saying something does not equate
Dec 30, 2021, 11:20 AM
|
|
With the reality of the situation. If policy/recommendations change because of data found in studies like that, then we'll cross that bridge.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
Firstly, I don't live in those countries.
Dec 30, 2021, 11:27 AM
|
|
Secondly, I don't see anything about "four shots a year" in either of those.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
Well obviously there's something there for these countries
Dec 30, 2021, 11:33 AM
|
|
to implement these policies/recommendations, no? Given that, you don't see how these policies would trickle down to other western countries?
You got two shots earlier this year, booster was recommended after 6 months. You're now at 3 shots. Now 'the science' is saying boosters wane after 10 weeks or so, so let's say every 3 months. 12 months in a year, divided by 3 months= 4 shots a year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
It's still a hypothetical.
Dec 30, 2021, 12:15 PM
|
|
I didn't say it wasn't a sound or informed hypothetical. And I didn't say it wouldn't "come true". I'm just choosing not to state myself in favor or against a hypothetical.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: It's still a hypothetical.
Dec 31, 2021, 10:32 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155906]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65822
Joined: 5/6/13
|
You really are determined not to answer this
Jan 3, 2022, 7:57 AM
[ in reply to It's still a hypothetical. ] |
|
He’s given more data backing his claim that 4 shots is accurate than you have backing your claim that there’s no way of knowing until it happens.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: Not gonna argue hypotheticals.
Dec 30, 2021, 11:25 AM
[ in reply to Not gonna argue hypotheticals. ] |
|
It occurs to me as I type that that one could view my previous response as a hypothetical, but it was not intended as such. I just used 1 in 1000 and 1 in 1100 because I don't know the precise numbers. I just know that there is an established reduction in serious illness for those vaccinated.
I would not get it in that hypothetical.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
I doubt it, I too know nurses and doctors.
Dec 30, 2021, 11:19 AM
|
|
Many of you are just hysterical over covid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
nurses and doctors who work daily on a covid floor
Dec 30, 2021, 12:02 PM
|
|
in a hospital? who intubate patients daily?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
Are covid floors even still a thing?
Dec 30, 2021, 12:11 PM
|
|
Best I can tell there are less than 200 people state wide in the ICU that have covid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
absolutely***
Dec 30, 2021, 2:06 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [40929]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42947
Joined: 11/30/98
|
My wife is a nurse that treats Covid patients and will not
Dec 30, 2021, 4:36 PM
[ in reply to I doubt it, I too know nurses and doctors. ] |
|
be taking any more covid vaccinations. She certainly will be getting a flu shot every year though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: my sister-in-law is a nurse on a covid floor in SC.
Dec 30, 2021, 11:29 AM
[ in reply to my sister-in-law is a nurse on a covid floor in SC. ] |
|
she has done so for 2 years. go talk to doctors or nurses who work daily in those floors and you'll be singing a different tune.
I live in a city and my daughter's pediatrician said that there have been 2 deaths among kids in the entire city and both of them had comorbidities.
Again, I know more kids that have gotten myocarditis then have been hospitalized with covid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
yes....
Dec 30, 2021, 11:18 AM
[ in reply to If it takes 4 shots a year of something that we have zero ] |
|
We do have a good bit of data now on vaccine side effects.
We also have a a LOT of data about long-term side effects from having COVID.
If the question becomes to take a risk on long-term impact of the vaccine vs long-term impact of the disease, I'll take the vaccine as a no-brainer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
^^^^this^^^^^***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:19 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
You'll take 4 a year?
Dec 30, 2021, 11:23 AM
[ in reply to yes.... ] |
|
No, we do not know about any of the long term side effects from the vaccine. Covid itself has only been around since late 2019 or so, so I'd argue we don't know much about the long term effects of it, either.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I'm not sure where you're getting 4 a year from....
Dec 30, 2021, 11:33 AM
|
|
seems like speculation. I think that depends a lot on how the variants develop and how the effects of the booster wane over time. If more people would get the got dang shot, then the chance of new variants developing would be reduced.
And yes, there is a lot of data on lingering effects of having COVID. I'm not pretending to be a medical expert, but from what I've read, it's clear that many of those effects are going to be long-lasting.
Same applies to the vaccine...unless you think there is some reasonable medical chance that long-term effects are going to spring up out of nowhere, given the minute amount of short-term side effects noted.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
Well many people have already had 3 shots this year alone
Dec 30, 2021, 11:43 AM
|
|
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211227/covid-booster-protection-wanes-new-data
Based on 'the science', it looks like the booster effectiveness wanes even faster than the original shots, so that certainly looks to be the way things are tending. Do new antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria develop because of people who aren't taking antibiotics, or because of people who take too many of them? I don't think the narrative that the unvaccinated are spurring new variants holds much water, if anything it would be the vaccinated people who contract covid causing those.
There is a reasonable chance that long term effects are going to spring up from the vaccine, it is not at all uncommon in pharmaceuticals. There are a ton of variables, it might not be the formulation itself, it could be the manufacturing process that causes problems. Helll, Phizer just pulled Chantix and it had been in production for like 15 years.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
come on....the more people that are vaccinated....
Dec 30, 2021, 11:46 AM
|
|
the less people get and transmit the virus. You concede that, right?
Assuming yes, then the less times the virus transmits, then the less likely it is to mutate. That's not seriously up for debate, is it?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
Possibly, although the covid outbreaks in highly vaccinated
Dec 30, 2021, 12:06 PM
|
|
areas seem to indicate that the vaccines aren't doing a very good job of reducing the spread. At least not well enough to have a meaningful effect on mutations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I don't think the data shows that at all...
Dec 30, 2021, 1:38 PM
|
|
sure they're not 100% effective. But if they're as little as 30% effective at preventing contagion for Omicron...that makes a huge difference.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
I haven’t seen any data that shows they are even that
Dec 30, 2021, 3:40 PM
|
|
Effective against Omnicron. That certainly isn’t good enough to prevent further variants.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I'm not suggesting that there is a lot of data...
Dec 30, 2021, 3:52 PM
|
|
on efficacy against omicron...I was stating a what-if for discussion's sake.
would 30% efficacy prevent a variant...maybe not...does it reduce the chances...yes. And again...the 30% number was just a made-up number for discussion's sake.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
You've definitely got it all figured out***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:27 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
well, I can read, count, and analyze data***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:56 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
I can do all of that and have a pretty good grasp on basic
Dec 30, 2021, 12:14 PM
|
|
biology, as well as experience with experimental drugs and drug trials. I've got 55 gallon drums full of I told you so from earlier this year when I said I didn't think the vaccines would maintain 90%+ efficacy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
I thought you were getting vaxed when "FDA Approved"??***
Dec 30, 2021, 2:07 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [79429]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63272
Joined: 10/30/05
|
I’ve always said 3 years minimum before I’ll consider it***
Dec 30, 2021, 3:37 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
numerous young people have been hospitalized
Dec 30, 2021, 11:07 AM
|
|
with covid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I think your conflating different issues here...
Dec 30, 2021, 11:15 AM
|
|
when you're vaccinated, you are less likely to contract COVID (efficacy of the vaccine).
If you do happen to contract COVID and you're vaccinated, you can spread it...just like anyone else that catches it. However, if you're vaccinated and you happen to get it (breakthrough case), then generally the symptoms are more mild and the time you are contagious is less than someone that is not vaccinated.
So, I think what you're missing in this is that being vaccinated substantially reduces your chance to actually catch COVID in the first place. If you don't catch it, you don't spread it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
*you're****
Dec 30, 2021, 11:19 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: I think your conflating different issues here...
Dec 30, 2021, 11:32 AM
[ in reply to I think your conflating different issues here... ] |
|
when you're vaccinated, you are less likely to contract COVID (efficacy of the vaccine).
If you do happen to contract COVID and you're vaccinated, you can spread it...just like anyone else that catches it. However, if you're vaccinated and you happen to get it (breakthrough case), then generally the symptoms are more mild and the time you are contagious is less than someone that is not vaccinated.
So, I think what you're missing in this is that being vaccinated substantially reduces your chance to actually catch COVID in the first place. If you don't catch it, you don't spread it.
Please define breakthrough case. Everybody I know that currently has covid is vaccinated. I know more people that have Covid now than at any other point in the pandemic.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34108]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33611
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Why do people rely on tweets for facts?***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:46 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
It's becoming apparent that a lot of people have never....
Dec 30, 2021, 11:49 AM
|
|
been taught anything about statistics.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: It's becoming apparent that a lot of people have never....
Dec 30, 2021, 12:11 PM
|
|
been taught anything about statistics.
What does this statistic tell you? From the article....
German population is 71% vaxxed.
95% of new cases are people that are vaxxed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
can you link the article please and I'll read it....
Dec 30, 2021, 1:49 PM
|
|
I'm guessing (don't know for sure) that that is a 1-day kind of measure. I also know that % of total population isn't a great measure against infection due to the younger ages tending not be be vaxed and also not to be exposed at the same rate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34108]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33611
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: Why do people rely on tweets for facts?***
Dec 30, 2021, 12:21 PM
|
|
Where do you get your facts from?
First stop is usually a reputable media source (not twitter) and then if I want to scrutinize, I'll try to dig down to original sources.
I get my "facts" from a variety of sources.
Twitter is OK if it leads you to something verifiable, but the tweet you linked does not cite to anything.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: Why do people rely on tweets for facts?***
Dec 30, 2021, 1:46 PM
|
|
Where do you get your facts from?
First stop is usually a reputable media source (not twitter) and then if I want to scrutinize, I'll try to dig down to original sources.
I get my "facts" from a variety of sources.
Twitter is OK if it leads you to something verifiable, but the tweet you linked does not cite to anything.
Did you know that every media source has a Twitter account?
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34108]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33611
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: Why do people rely on tweets for facts?***
Dec 30, 2021, 1:58 PM
|
|
Did you know that every media source has a Twitter account?
I expect you're right. As I said, Twitter is OK if it leads you to something verifiable, but the tweet you linked does not cite to anything.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
A breakthrough case is someone that catches covid....
Dec 30, 2021, 11:43 AM
[ in reply to Re: I think your conflating different issues here... ] |
|
and is vaccinated.
Depending on which vaccine we're talking about, they have varying degrees of efficacy against the different variants.
As an example, the moderna vaccine had a very high efficacy against alpha (~98%)...lower against delta (~60%) and I don't know the data against omicron but it appears like the efficacy will be a bit lower than delta.
Also Omicron is being said to spread between 50% and 100% more as compared to Delta.
The above is efficacy against infection.
The efficacy against serious infection is much much higher.
As to the "everybody I know" comment, statistically...does that really mean anything? For example, if 90% of the people you know are vaccinated and some of them have caught COVID, it would be expected that everyone you know that has covid has been vaccinated. That doesn't disprove any of the data and efficacy, right?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: A breakthrough case is someone that catches covid....***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:46 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: A breakthrough case is someone that catches covid....
Dec 30, 2021, 11:48 AM
[ in reply to A breakthrough case is someone that catches covid.... ] |
|
I know all sorts of people vaxxed, unvaxxed, and unvaxxed with natural immunity.
At this point it's probably 60% are fully vaxxed. Everybody I know that has Covid right now is vaxxed. I'm not saying the vaxxed is more likely to catch, but I don't think the vax is preventing people from getting it right now.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
sigh....***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:50 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: sigh....***
Dec 30, 2021, 11:52 AM
|
|
Sigh..... observing my own personal reality. It's apparent you believe what everybody else tells you instead of observing your own experiences.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
You're dang right I do....
Dec 30, 2021, 12:03 PM
|
|
I know enough not to come to conclusions based on anecdotal evidence. If you want to form firm opinions on this kind of thing based on the few people that you know...then be my guest.
I know 2 people personally that have COVID right now. One is a 45 year old that is vaccinated and one is a 16 year old that's had 1 shot. I know a lot of people and a lot of the people I know are vaccinated. So using your type of analysis, the vaccination is keeping everyone safe...right?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: You're dang right I do....
Dec 30, 2021, 12:19 PM
|
|
No. I was just stating facts from my personal reality. I base my opinion from a variety of sources and experiences. I'm unsure why you assumed that my opinion on vaccines and Covid is based solely on personal experience. Strange.
Anyways, since you obviously have the best sources and data, why don't you share some links and sources that you are basing your opinion on.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34108]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33611
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Since you like anecdotal evidence...
Dec 30, 2021, 12:25 PM
|
|
There are two people at my office who are home with Covid, and their entire families have Covid as well, and none of them were ever vaccinated. At lease some of them are very sick and some have no sense of taste or smell.
Outside of work, I've got one friend with Covid, and h's vaccinated. His symptoms are very minor compared to the unvaxxed people I know.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: Since you like anecdotal evidence...
Dec 30, 2021, 12:34 PM
|
|
There are two people at my office who are home with Covid, and their entire families have Covid as well, and none of them were ever vaccinated. At lease some of them are very sick and some have no sense of taste or smell.
Outside of work, I've got one friend with Covid, and h's vaccinated. His symptoms are very minor compared to the unvaxxed people I know.
It's weird how sharing a personal experience is deemed unacceptable on this board. Nowhere did I imply that my entire view point was based on my current reality. Done arguing about this as it's an incredibly dumb argument.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
My anecdotal evidence ,,,
Dec 30, 2021, 1:13 PM
[ in reply to Since you like anecdotal evidence... ] |
|
I've shared before, but it keeps coming up, so ... I know close to 50 people who have died from covid; the vast majority of them were unvaxxed. Not car accidents or strokes or suicides that were written off as "covid", but people who were walking around leading a normal life one day, then contracted covid, quickly got to a point where they couldn't breathe, and died. So far, I don't personally know a single person who had a serious reaction to the vaccine. Based on that, so far, no reason not to take the vaccine. We know that the vaccine does not prevent you from getting covid, so let's drop that. We also know, for a fact, that the vaccine does not stop the spread of covid, and in fact, it's not very effective at all at that either, that is a fact, so lets drop that part of the argument. What the vaccine is extremely good at is KEEPING PEOPLE FROM GETTING SERIOUSLY ILL AND KEEPING THEM FROM DYING DUE TO COVID. that much has been clearly established. So, another very good reason to get the vaccine. What are the long term effects of the vaccine? We don't know. In 10 years I could grow another arm out of my forehead, but there is no reason to think that may happen, and no reason to think anything bad will happen long term. Yes, I know some young people develop myocarditis, but it's a relatively small percentage, and is usually manageable and/or resolves. So. weighed against the chances of dying from covid, which in my personal experience I know for a fact to be very very real, getting the vaccine is a no-brainer.
Having said that, the whole issue has been so highly politicized by all sides that many, if not most people are no longer able to think about it rationally. People feel like they have to pick a side, dig in their heels, and go to war. People look for data and studies and anecdotes to support their biases, and ignore or downplay those that don't. That's just where we are.
FWIW, I have covid as we speak. I am fully vaxxed with a booster. 3 days in and it's been like a mild flu so far. I strongly oppose government mandated vaccines; it should be a free, personal choice.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: My anecdotal evidence ,,,
Dec 30, 2021, 1:19 PM
|
|
Holy crap that is crazy. Sorry for all your loss!
I don't know anybody that has died of covid and only know of one hospitalization.
My father in law got covid pneumonia and was in the hospital for 2 days. He was unvaxxed, 70, had health issues, and is overweight. He is fine now. His wife was unvaxxed and she had mild symptoms. They got from a vaccinated person.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
Again, being vaxxed does not prevent one from getting covid
Dec 30, 2021, 1:31 PM
|
|
nor from transmitting covid to others. A lot of vaxxed people get covid and vaxxed people pass covid to other people every day, so that is a terrible argument FOR the vaccine.
The real benefit of the vaccine, which is undeniable, is in preventing death and hospitalization. That is why people should get it, especially people over a certain age, or people with other comorbidities such as obesity (nearly half of all adult Americans), diabetes, heart/lung disease, cancer, etc., or anybody that wants to put the odds heavily in their favor in case they get covid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2669]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 8366
Joined: 8/12/14
|
Re: Again, being vaxxed does not prevent one from getting covid
Dec 30, 2021, 1:48 PM
|
|
I agree with this. I don't agree with healthy young people getting the vaccine.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34108]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33611
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: wait...don't you mean that it doesn't 100% prevent...
Dec 30, 2021, 2:09 PM
|
|
What's the best place to look for data about vaccine effectiveness at reducing (a) infection, (b) symptoms, (c) hospitalizations, and (d) transmission? It would be nice to understand where the best information on those items is located, and honestly I don't know the answer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I'm not sure of a single place....
Dec 30, 2021, 2:57 PM
|
|
I tend to search and dig around at known data sources.
This is a decent example:
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068848#:~:text=Vaccine%20effectiveness%20against%20hospital%20admission,151%2D180%20days%20after%20vaccination![]() Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against delta, mu, and other emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2: test negative case-control study Objectives To evaluate the effectiveness of the mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 variants and assess its effectiveness against the delta variant by time since vaccination.
Design Test negative case-control study.
Setting Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), an integrated healthcare system.
Participants Adult KPSC members with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test sent for whole genome sequencing or a negative test from 1 March 2021 to 27 July 2021.
Interventions Two dose or one dose vaccination with mRNA-1273 (Moderna covid-19 vaccine) ?14 days before specimen collection versus no covid-19 vaccination.
Main outcome measures Outcomes included infection with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital admission with covid-19. In pre-specified analyses for each variant type, test positive cases were matched 1:5 to test negative controls on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and specimen collection date. Conditional logistic regression was used to compare odds of vaccination among cases versus controls, with adjustment for confounders. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1–odds ratio)×100%.
Results The study included 8153 cases and their matched controls. Two dose vaccine effectiveness was 86.7% (95% confidence interval 84.3% to 88.7%) against infection with the delta variant, 98.4% (96.9% to 99.1%) against alpha, 90.4% (73.9% to 96.5%) against mu, 96-98% against other identified variants, and 79.9% (76.9% to 82.5%) against unidentified variants (that is, specimens that failed sequencing). Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with the delta variant was 97.5% (92.7% to 99.2%). Vaccine effectiveness against infection with the delta variant declined from 94.1% (90.5% to 96.3%) 14-60 days after vaccination to 80.0% (70.2% to 86.6%) 151-180 days after vaccination. Waning was less pronounced for non-delta variants. Vaccine effectiveness against delta infection was lower among people aged ?65 years (75.2%, 59.6% to 84.8%) than those aged 18-64 years (87.9%, 85.5% to 89.9%). One dose vaccine effectiveness was 77.0% (60.7% to 86.5%) against infection with delta.
Conclusions Two doses of mRNA-1273 were highly effective against all SARS-CoV-2 variants, especially against hospital admission with covid-19. However, vaccine effectiveness against infection with the delta variant moderately declined with increasing time since vaccination.
Individual level data reported in this study are not publicly shared. On request, and subject to review, KPSC may provide the de-identified aggregate level data that support the findings of this study. De-identified data (including participants’ data as applicable) may be shared on approval of an analysis proposal and a signed data access agreement.
If you read enough and the data seems to start to align, then....
The CDC datatracker is decent and links/follows outside studies:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home COVID Data Tracker CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccine-effectivenessCOVID Data Tracker CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34108]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33611
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Thanks.
Dec 30, 2021, 3:42 PM
|
|
The studies tend to make my head hurt and eyes glaze over. The abstract is about as far as I can go. The CDC stuff is interesting. I wish there was a nice "explainer" article that clearly and reliably set out what we know about vaccine effectiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
Extremely poor efficacy, so that's a lousy selling point.
Dec 30, 2021, 3:40 PM
[ in reply to wait...don't you mean that it doesn't 100% prevent... ] |
|
When everybody personally knows dozens of fully vaxxed people who have covid, it doesn't matter if you have studies that claim otherwise. In the real world, you have no credibility. And rightly so.
The real, important reason people should be getting vaccinated is to keep them from being hospitalized and to keep them from dying. It's undeniable that the vaccines are very effective at that; all doctors agree with that, plenty of studies support it, real world experience backs it up, and that's the way they should be promoted.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Wait, so if a study came out that the vaccine....
Dec 30, 2021, 3:49 PM
|
|
has a 50% efficacy against infection for the omicron variant, you wouldn't believe it because you know a lot of vaxxed people that got infected? That seems slap-arse crazy to me...sorry.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
Promoting this vaccine based off of it's supposed efficacy
Dec 30, 2021, 7:14 PM
|
|
against infection is what is slap-arse crazy when people personally know and talk to hundreds of fully vaxxed people who have been infected with covid. They understandably question it's efficacy. When there appears to be conflict between what they see with their own eyes and experience in their own lives, and what some statistician in a lab coat is telling them, as slap-arse crazy as it sounds, they will go with their experience every time.
Real world, true example: Today, right now, I have covid. So does my youngest daughter (no pigs). My oldest daughter's (no pigs) boyfriend has it. 4 people who work with oldest daughter have it. 5 of her friend group has it. 2 people I work with just got over it, and 4 friends of mine either currently have it or just got over it. My wife and oldest daughter had it earlier this fall. All, every last one of us is fully vaxxed (and boosted, where applicable). I understand statistics and probabilities, but if you want to sell me on the vaccine, you're going to have to find a better pitch than "It is effective at preventing covid infection", because it wasn't effective at all for me, and lots of people I know. And I'm very pro vaccine! I don't need convincing.
For people that are on the fence about the vaccine, or even some people who are anti-vax for whatever reason and need convincing, I think this is a much better, more effective way to reach them:
Covid can make you very sick, and can kill you.
The vaccines are very effective at preventing that.
That much is incontrovertible, indisputable, and can be demonstrated. That hits home, where it matters. That should be the focus and the message. While the vaccines do provide some degree of protection against infection and transmission, it's not enough to instill any confidence amongst skeptics, and in fact, only undermines credibility and derails the conversation completely.
I went through this over the last few days. A friend of a friend said (copy and paste, direct quote) " I personally know people right now that were fully vaccinated and are now at home sick with covid. It's pretty naive and uninformed to preach that everyone should get vaccinated. With the assumption that it will prevent everyone from getting covid."
A LOT OF PEOPLE think the reason for getting vacinated is simply to prevent getting infected. They already know that's not working, and therefore they think "vaccines don't work!". Showing them a study isn't going to change a thing when their experience is very different. These are the people that need to be reached, and they won't be reached by being preached to. They need to know there is a much, MUCH more important reason to get vaxxed. If the right message is delivered in the right way, I still believe there is hope.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Come on...your point would make sense if someone....
Dec 30, 2021, 7:28 PM
|
|
was claiming 100% efficacy...no one is.
You keep saying the same thing, yet it doesn't disprove anything.
You do understand that, for example, the vaccine could have a 50% efficacy against infection and you can know a lot of people that are vaccinated and infected. You get that, right? Especially with omicron initial data showing it transmit at a much higher rate than delta.
In other words, statistically there probably isn't a conflict between what you see which your own eyes and what the data says.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
No. My point is, which you can't seem to grasp, vaccines are
Dec 30, 2021, 7:59 PM
|
|
so limited, whatever their efficacy %, that a broad swath of the population has no confidence in their ability to prevent infection due to their own experience (no matter what the stats are), and if we are to convince more of those people to get vaccinated, it won't be through lessons on stastistical analysis that shows how wrong they are, but rather simply pointing out that the main reason for getting a covid vaccine is to prevent them and their loved ones from going into the hospital or dying.
I totally get what you are saying, and of course I understand that at 50% (or 30%, or 10%, or whatever) I could still see a lot of breakthrough cases. But none of that matters if the goal is to get more people vaxxed. It's you that is totally missing my point,
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I agree and also disagree....
Dec 30, 2021, 8:11 PM
|
|
I disagree that people don't need to be educated on what vaccines do and how they work, especially in the face of all of disinformation floating around.
Also, I think vaccines ARE being pushed agressivly as preventing serious illness. In fact, that's most of what I see and hear.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
I'm all for educating people too, but a lot of people,
Dec 30, 2021, 8:56 PM
|
|
especially people who have already been politicized, or people who aren't capable of processing slightly more complex information, will shut down or zone out when the message is too long or seems to conflict with their experience or beliefs. I'm all for educating and informing, but I think that messaging is a big part of the problem now.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [58411]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 46322
Joined: 4/23/00
|
Dr. John Torres just summed it up this way on the Today Show
Dec 31, 2021, 7:51 AM
[ in reply to I agree and also disagree.... ] |
|
... "Even though we know that vaccines aren't effective, or aren't very effective at contolling the sniffles and us feeling bad, they're great at controlling the big three, which are hospitilization, serious illness, and death, and at the end of the day, that's what we want, we want the vaccine to prevent those big three".
Glad to hear it put that way, stating that because the vaccines aren't very effective at preventing infection, that doesn't mean the vaccines don't work. That's exactly what people need to hear. I already knew that, you already knew that, but there are a lot of people who don't spend much time on Tigernet or social media or watching much news past the headlines, so that needs to be a headline. You'd be shocked how many people I have talked to in the past few days who flat out don't get that, and had never thought about it that way. I don't know if any of them will be swayed, but when I explained it that way, it at least made them think.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [40929]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42947
Joined: 11/30/98
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Horse sheet...you really just think all of the data....
Jan 3, 2022, 7:41 AM
|
|
is a lie?
Come on.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-statusCOVID Data Tracker CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
The data is based on 27 state health departments that track links between vaccination and case counts, hospitalization, and deaths. The states are listed in the footnotes. No doubt the data has limitations, but it clearly shows that the vaccine has a profound impact on infection, hospitalization, and death.
At this point, the idiocy is willful when data is dismissed out-of-hand because of anecdotal evidence of 6 people you know, for example.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Horse sheet...you really just think all of the data....
Jan 3, 2022, 7:52 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
The data shows they offer less efficacy against....
Jan 3, 2022, 8:03 AM
|
|
the variants, but still offer a good deal of protection against infection. The variants are also much more contagious than the "original". The data doesn't show the impact of omicron...most estimate that the efficacy against infection from the vaccine will be decreased further, but it is still there and definitely statistically significant.
Increasing case counts against increased number of vaxxed does not disprove the data...not at all.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
A few points....
Dec 30, 2021, 1:44 PM
[ in reply to Re: You're dang right I do.... ] |
|
"No. I was just stating facts from my personal reality."
That's the very definition of anecdotal evidence.
"I base my opinion from a variety of sources and experiences. I'm unsure why you assumed that my opinion on vaccines and Covid is based solely on personal experience."
Because that's all you stated and then followed it with a conclusion.
"Anyways, since you obviously have the best sources and data, why don't you share some links and sources that you are basing your opinion on."
Honestly, at this point in the game, I'll pass. It's all widely available if you're truly interested. I don't think you're really interested.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97718]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64858
Joined: 7/13/02
|
First part not true, since Delta.
Dec 30, 2021, 2:12 PM
[ in reply to I think your conflating different issues here... ] |
|
Second part is true with delta. Neither are true with omicron now. Second part is partially true if you're vaccinated, twice, and boosted with omicron.
If you consider that covid suppresses interferons and immune response in everyone, regardless of immunity (vaccine or natural), then the only factor that matters is effectiveness, as efficacy is shot to ####. Lessening the time contagious is a part of vaccine benefit too, but only on the back end, not on the front end.
As of delta, the virus can do everything it needs to do, to replicate, and transmit, among anyone, with any immunity. Vaccines make it less severe. They used to make it asymptomatic.
Unless science can find an immune response prior to interferons and your innate immune system, then no, vaccines, prior infection, nothing will stop or even slow transmission. AGE, ironically, and overall health, and possibly genetics play a bigger role in not acquiring the virus over anything else. Younger kids have higher interferon levels and a quicker innate response, smaller lungs and less surface area too. All matter less with delta.
How omicron spreads is a mystery now though. Is it all due to the spike? Has interferon suppression lessened? Interferon suppression is why severity increased with delta, transmission too. Faster replication, higher longer innate immune suppression, higher viral loads, more days to transmit without symptoms, the more useless vaccines are to prevent transmission. PLUS, the more virus you have to clear.
Waiting on a replication of the viral load study below for omicron. You won't see it from a western government though. Only Asian countries study the virus like this. It makes far too much sense this way, so you won't find a study like this from the CDC. China did a similar study, as did Israel, much later.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full-text![]() Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study Objectives Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns (VOCs) with mutations in the spike protein are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections.
Methods We conducted a multi-centre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared the clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
Results Of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 had received a mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and 4 received a non-mRNA. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, the odds of severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation was significantly lower following vaccination (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95%CI: 0.015-0.335, p=0.001). PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients, however, these titers were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 as compared with the wildtype vaccine strain.
Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic.
### Competing Interest Statement
BEY reports personal fees from Roche and Sanofi, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests.
### Funding Statement
This study was funded by grants from the Singapore National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF-001, COVID19RF-008). The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study;url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/0.001). PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients, however, these titers were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 as compared with the wildtype vaccine strain.
Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic.
### Competing Interest Statement
BEY reports personal fees from Roche and Sanofi, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests.
### Funding Statement
This study was funded by grants from the Singapore National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF-001, COVID19RF-008). The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
### Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
Written informed consent was obtained from study participants of the multi-centre study approved by National Healthcare Group Domain Specific Review Board (NHG-DSRB) (Study Reference 2012/00917). Informed consent for retrospective data collection at National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) was waived (NHG-DSRB reference number 2020/01122).
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
I read your long post and C&P....
Dec 30, 2021, 2:49 PM
|
|
and I'm honestly not sure what you're saying.
You seem to be saying that the vaccine doesn't provide efficacy against infection against delta. Is that what you're saying?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97718]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64858
Joined: 7/13/02
|
Yes.
Dec 30, 2021, 3:50 PM
|
|
Israel data, Maldives data, Singapore data, our own data, shows that. Other than studies.
People really don't understand the immune suppression aspect of covid. It explains a large part of the evolution of the virus.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155906]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65822
Joined: 5/6/13
|
I thought it was just generally accepted knowledge
Dec 30, 2021, 8:23 PM
|
|
At this point that infection rates were very similar for vaxxed vs unvaxxed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155906]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65822
Joined: 5/6/13
|
Those charts show 4-5x, and due to to several other
Jan 3, 2022, 8:04 AM
|
|
Dependent variables not reflected in the graph, are bad examples to use to state correlation = causation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Yes and no....
Jan 3, 2022, 9:00 AM
|
|
There are for sure limitations with this kind of data. The underlying study that this data model uses is clear about that (pasted below). That means this kind of data isn't "precise", but it surely can be used to show trends and general impact. I bolded the part that I think you're referring to. I think that would be more of a concern with a smaller data set in one area, but this data set is pretty large (this study was 13 states...the data I shared is 27 states). So is the real impact against infection from being vaxxed 3x, 5x 10x...I don't know....but what I do know is that data clearly points to a significant factor which I believe makes the statement "the vaccine doesn't help keep you from getting infected" provably false.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w
Discussion
In 13 U.S. jurisdictions, rates of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were substantially higher in persons not fully vaccinated compared with those in fully vaccinated persons, similar to findings in other reports (2,3). After the week of June 20, 2021, when the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant became predominant, the percentage of fully vaccinated persons among cases increased more than expected for the given vaccination coverage and a constant VE. The IRR for cases among persons not fully vaccinated versus fully vaccinated decreased substantially; IRRs for hospitalizations and deaths changed less overall, but moderately among adults aged ?65 years. Findings from this crude analysis of surveillance data are consistent with recent studies reporting decreased VE against confirmed infection but not hospitalization or death, during a period of Delta variant predominance and potential waning of vaccine-induced population immunity (4–6).†††
The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, combining unvaccinated and partially vaccinated persons resulted in lower IRR and VE estimates. Second, variable linkage of case surveillance, vaccination, hospitalization, and mortality data might have resulted in misclassifications that could influence IRR estimates; no substantial differences in ascertainment of outcomes by vaccination status were noted in jurisdictions that were able to assess this. Lags in reporting of deaths might have affected the second period differentially. Third, this was an ecological study in which IRRs lacked multivariable adjustments and causality could not be assessed (i.e., possible differences in testing or behaviors in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons). VE is being assessed through ongoing controlled studies. Fourth, the period when the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant reached ?50% overall prevalence was assumed to be the first week when most cases were infected with the Delta variant, but the week varied by jurisdiction. Finally, the data assessed from 13 jurisdictions accounted for 25% of the U.S. population, and therefore might not be generalizable.
Monitoring COVID-19 outcomes in populations over time by vaccination status is facilitated through reliable linkage of COVID-19 case surveillance and vaccination data. However, interpreting state-level variation by week might be challenging, especially for severe outcomes with small numbers. The framework used in this analysis allows for comparisons of observed IRRs and percentages of vaccinated cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to expected values. The data might be helpful in communicating the real-time impact of vaccines (e.g., persons not fully vaccinated having >10 times higher COVID-19 mortality risk) and guiding prevention strategies, such as vaccination and nonpharmacologic interventions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155906]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65822
Joined: 5/6/13
|
What I'm saying is this, and the study's notes do broach
Jan 3, 2022, 9:06 AM
|
|
the topic.....
Tons of variables unaccounted for:
-Geographic locations of these groups
-Population density
-social interaction behaviors
-population demographics
and even other things like the fact that the vaccinated may have not felt the need to go to a MD (no test performed) vs the unvaccinated did (tests performed), skewing the results.
Not an anti-vaxxer (although I am having a current internal debate over getting the third shot), but I'm just saying that everything I've read to date seems to indicate an infection rate much, much closer than 4 or 8x.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Ok, we agree then on the first part...
Jan 3, 2022, 9:30 AM
|
|
Previously you said that you thought it was generally accepted that there is no difference between infection rate between vaxxed and unvaxxed. I just can't see how one can read the data I posted (and there are other sources as well) and come to the conclusion that there is no significant difference in vaxxed vs unvaxxed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155906]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65822
Joined: 5/6/13
|
because there are other data sources and we are back
Jan 3, 2022, 9:41 AM
|
|
to the beginning of the conversation if we are discussing your data. There's such a dearth of other relevant variables there that it's a casual observation at best, and certainly not the basis for a hypothesis.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31894]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37181
Joined: 11/22/03
|
What other data sources are more convincing of...
Jan 3, 2022, 12:36 PM
|
|
the view that the vaccine doesn't provide protection from infection?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97718]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64858
Joined: 7/13/02
|
Yes, since June of this year the argument has been
Dec 30, 2021, 12:58 PM
|
|
hospitals and deaths only. A vaccine only helps you clear the DELTA virus. It has effectively zero impact on transmission. People who do are relying on SOME studies that it slows transmission 2%, 5%, maybe 10%, and that's not even the case anymore.
But for some reason the powers that be have determined that telling people it only helps keep you from needing oxygen or a coffin is not the right approach, so the lie is a better one, maybe mandates, make people think they spread it less vaccinated, whatever.
Now prior to Delta, absolutely the vaccines curbed the spread of other prior variants. So what was the truth changed, but instead of informing people, they perpetuated the lie because the vaccines still do their most important thing, cut deaths and hospitalizations. Still a good enough reason for me, and probably most people.
Fact is they won't end the pandemic, and flu vaccines won't end the flu pandemic (wink) and for the same reason.
As for a young and healthy person (children), I don't think a vaccine will help chasing omicron. If you're an adult, over 18, I'd get the vaccines and booster. But for kids, the ones omicron is hitting hardest are those too young for a vaccine. And it's still not more severe than delta in older children (teens).
AND, one thing we need to be careful about, omicron is different enough that delta may subsist even while omicron is going around. The specific question is.... does omicron confer delta immunity as well? This is a real possibility and that would be very bad. Every variant before omicron conferred immunity against whatever prior variant had gone through, to some level. "Natural immunity". A virus becomes dominant when it increases in cases, BUT also through doing that confers immunity against the prior variant it displaces making the prior variant disappear. So Delta goes through the roof, and Alpha disappears, literally. Alpha appeared and Wuhan covid disappeared. Omicron, though is the first to come along where NO prior variant confers any meaningful immunity against omicron ("natural immunity" doesn't work). If the reverse is true, it and delta may coexist. Cases of omicron may skyrocket, and it may be a vast majority of cases, but delta may not subside, and delta could increase as well in total numbers. If that happens, the replacement does not happen and you have two pandemic viruses at once, and the hospitalizations will remain mostly delta, and even increase, while omicron does what it does. So you have most cases as omicron, but it's not dominant because delta still hangs on to say 30% of cases, at levels it had before omicron. It may too increase, who knows.
This is why the CDC revision in the percentage of omicron is concerning. And the European data tends to show this MAY be an issue. Omicron is so transmissible, IF it confers immunity to delta, it should skyrocket to 100% of cases in weeks and delta likewise would disappear like prior replaced variants. And it certainly started that trajectory. But if you go to some other countries who encountered omicron before the US, who actually do better sequencing than the US, and we all do better than South Africa, you will find in Denmark, in the past 14 days (roughly 600 samples sequenced), omicron is still only 55% of new cases. In England, past 14 days (roughly 3,000 samples), omicron is only 71% of new cases. Now if England sees a 70% increase in cases, with omicron 70% "dominant" that means the level of delta cases is remaining the same. Delta was proliferating on its own before omicron, remember. It wasn't over. In England and in the US. cases were climbing, and they were delta, and in places delta had already gone through, and this is after our delta "peak". Same trend in England. Delta hit, cases went up, then fell by a third maybe, then leveled off and climbed again, STILL delta. Delta has over 200 mutations itself, and it was perpetuating itself when omicron arrived.
If delta does not confer immunity to omicron (studies show this to be the case), and omicron does not confer immunity to delta, that's a bad situation where you stack omicron on top of delta. And here we are with monoclonal antibodies that work on Delta, which may be say 30% of cases, and we have no clue if they will work or not because we can't sequence everyone. We also can't give them to everyone as cases are too high with omicron. The stopping of monoclonal antibodies is predicated on omicron becoming 99-100% of new cases. But again, there would be far too many cases to treat with monoclonal antibodies anyway, with some majority chance the old ones wouldn't work, but nowhere a 99% chance like before. Then the further problem is you have to give monoclonal antibodies early. Well, when they are effective you won't know what someone has. Assuming delta remains, and assuming most hospitalizations are delta, say 70%, by the time someone gets severe disease enough to know they have a decent chance at having delta, it's too late for the monoclonal antibodies to work anyway.
Pray the ONE South African study that shows omicron confers delta immunity is accurate. The numbers don't bear that out yet, but hope. Because if not, and they both coexist, they can together create a new variant combining the best traits of both.
Just tossing this out there. There is one South African study that shows omicron confers delta immunity. But again, the numbers in Europe and the US have yet to demonstrate that to be the case.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [93668]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 95419
Joined: 12/25/09
|
Can you discuss how that...
Dec 30, 2021, 2:16 PM
|
|
the omicron variant has been around since (speculated) Oct possibly yet they claim to have a vaccine already?
I'd really like to know about a vaccine developed between the discovery of Delta in the late spring of 2020 and how they developed a vaccine so quickly to stave that variant off so soon?
Are there stats from studies on the success rate of these new vaccines or not?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97718]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64858
Joined: 7/13/02
|
All they need is a sample. They can extract the mRNA in a
Dec 30, 2021, 3:03 PM
|
|
week or two. Add the new variant's S gene mRNA to the existing lipid nanoparticle vaccine base, and boom. Off and testing in like 3-4 weeks. Testing and production is a different story though. It really is more "natural" than a traditional viral vector vaccine that contaminates the mRNA to an extent because it is processed through a vector host. You get no collateral damage from the vaccine that would not be present in the virus itself. When you're naturally infected, the virus produces identical mRNA in your body anyway, but with a complete virus and not just the spike protein. The ability to extract mRNA from a virus has been around for decades. The only reason no vaccine was ever developed was if you inject pure mRNA into a host, it tends to overwhelm the host immune system, create a cytokine storm, and they die. The key to the vaccine was finding a way to slow the absorption of the mRNA once injected, to slowly release it at a rate that would be more comparable to a natural infection, allowing antibodies to be created without the nasty cytokine storm and death. So they coat the mRNA in lipids (fat), that slowly dissolves over time, slowing and regulating your exposure to the mRNA enough so your immune system doesn't overreact.
I'd wager they have a "testable" omicron vaccine by now. They are probably doing, or have done initial testing. And that won't be public. May be horrible, who knows. But this is how they do it, and it would likely work. The reason they never (mass)produced a "new" variant specific vaccine is because they did not need to. Prior to omicron the spike mutations were relatively minimal, and the vaccine induced antibodies were still effective at neutralizing the variant, even with delta. The prior mutations covid used to become more severe and infectious were not mutations in the spike protein but in other areas of the virus that initiate immune suppression. I'd wager omicron poses enough spike mutations to warrant a new vaccine. But they would know better than I would.
The immune suppression genes are not located in the spike. The chemicals that shut down your immune response are in the ORF1a/b sections of the virus. Plus, the spike is the first thing your immune system sees. Making a mRNA vaccine from other areas of the virus, the payload areas, would be very dangerous and/or may not work at all. We know less about how those areas actually work.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [93668]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 95419
Joined: 12/25/09
|
Re: All they need is a sample. They can extract the mRNA in a
Dec 30, 2021, 3:16 PM
|
|
I always wait to see the reports on vaccine for a few months to know if they work, are deadly and to whom they are deadly before I take them.
I bought a new car, first of the line, called a Vega. I haven't made that mistake again. I'm sure GM tested the Vega.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
there are confirmed cases of individuals
Dec 30, 2021, 2:16 PM
[ in reply to Yes, since June of this year the argument has been ] |
|
having both alpha and delta simultaneously. I have little doubt that someone could have both delta and omicron at the same time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97718]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64858
Joined: 7/13/02
|
True, but in immunosuppressed people usually.
Dec 30, 2021, 3:17 PM
|
|
Assuming your own internal immune system is working fine, you will create immunity to the prior variant through gaining immunity to the present one you're infected with. And vice versa, if prior infected, you have some immunity to the next one. For a virus to truly become "dominant" it not only needs to reproduce and transmit faster and better, it also has to confer immunity to the existing variant, making that one go away. This linear progression is tossed with omicron. So there's a decent chance the two will coexist in the community, and possibly within people.
AND, that adds to the chances of a new mutation that takes advantage of both variants. We freaked out seeing an AIDS patient sick for months showing different variants at different times. This time it's billions of people. Much greater chance of a nastier mutation. Moderna CEO has mentioned this possibility. A person with a weakened immune system is a petri dish for the virus. If omicron does not create delta immunity, then the whole world becomes a petri dish.
South Africa says it does. But the numbers have yet to confirm that anywhere else.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Letterman [257]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 1532
Joined: 10/29/20
|
Because getting it is easy and not a big deal***
Dec 30, 2021, 2:09 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10887]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 15067
Joined: 8/6/10
|
So is taking heroin.***
Dec 31, 2021, 10:26 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [93668]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 95419
Joined: 12/25/09
|
TMML
Dec 31, 2021, 2:33 PM
|
|
Have you ever tried heroin?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [93668]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 95419
Joined: 12/25/09
|
Because it may save grandmaw's life?***
Dec 30, 2021, 4:31 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34486]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 13513
Joined: 8/30/19
|
Because I'm not scared of needles and there's a
Dec 30, 2021, 4:39 PM
|
|
communicable virus going around?
I think you're overcomplicating this.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10887]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 15067
Joined: 8/6/10
|
the push to inject kids with this experimental treatment is
Dec 31, 2021, 10:26 AM
|
|
a f****** crime against humanity and I hope the perpetrators are hanged like the Nazis.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [46825]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30731
Joined: 8/11/15
|
Mainly because I am young and relatively healthy
Jan 3, 2022, 9:27 AM
|
|
and it put me in the hospital twice.
But do you boo. Just don't go to the hospital when it does put you flat on your back
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: At this point, why would a healthy young person
Jan 3, 2022, 9:37 AM
|
|
Let’s go Darwin!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155906]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65822
Joined: 5/6/13
|
|
|
|
|
|
Starter [368]
TigerPulse: 71%
Posts: 569
Joined: 8/25/05
|
Re: At this point, why would a healthy young person
Jan 3, 2022, 9:52 AM
|
|
We’ve all got the information, if vaccination is still a question for someone, so be it.
Survival of the fittest.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: At this point, why would a healthy young person
Jan 3, 2022, 9:53 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 125
| visibility 1
|
|
|
50
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/COSCG26Z4RON7GGLOXFR7SMPDI.jpg)
