AP top 5 - who's beating winners/losers updated

Oct 30, 2016, 2:44 PM

This is an update to my earlier post from several weeks ago. Since this is the last time before the REAL rankings come out I thought I'd give it one more go based on this past weeks AP rankings (AP rankings as of Week 9):

Alabama is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 39-27
Michigan is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 32-33
Clemson is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 40-22
Washington is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 27-38
Louisville is 7-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 23-33

A further breakdown shows that:
Alabama has beaten 6 teams with winning records and 2 teams with losing records
Michigan has beaten 3 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 4 teams with losing records
Clemson has beaten 5 teams with winning records, 2 team with an even record, and 1 team with a losing record
Washington has beaten 2 teams with a winning record, 1 team with an even record, and 5 teams with losing records
Louisville has beaten 1 team with a winning record, 2 teams with even records, and 4 teams with losing records

Notes:
Alabama has beaten 2 teams that remained ranked in the AP week 9 rankings (#18 Tennessee, #9 Texas A&M)
Michigan has beaten 3 teams that remained ranked in the AP week 9 rankings (#23 Colorado, #24 Penn State, #11 Wisconsin)
Clemson has beaten 3 teams that remained ranked in the AP week 9 rankings (#15 Auburn, #5 Louisville, #12 Florida State)
Washington has beaten 1 team that remained ranked in the AP week 9 rankings (#17 Utah)
Louisville has beaten 1 team that remained ranked in the AP week 9 rankings (#12 Florida State)

Looking at the data, Alabama has the most wins over winning teams and I believe they are a very good team - worthy of most their hype. Michigan has 3 wins against top 25 teams (two of which are at the bottom of the top 25) but getting the majority of their wins over losing teams gives me pause to think they are not the world beaters the ESPN hype machine suggests. Clemson has the most impressive list of wins thus far that include defeating 3 teams in the top 15. One could argue that Troy (6-1) should also be ranked in the top 25 but regardless, Clemson has the second most number of wins over winning teams thus far in the season. I feel the jury is still out on Washington - their schedule is extremely soft and frankly their win over #17 Utah did not do much to prove to me they are real contenders. Louisville is big on hype but short on competition with a pulse. They have only beaten 1 team with a winning record (FSU) and feasted on a bunch of mediocre/losers. For all of the hype around Louisville - someone really needs to look at the quality of their opponents before claiming they are a playoff worthy team. My guess is the CFP Committee will not be as kind to Louisville as the AP and ESPN. I have a feeling Texas A&M or Ohio State will be ranked number 5 by the CFP Committee and Louisville will be 6 or 7.

If I were the CFP Committee, I would rank the top 4 as follows:
1. Alabama - nod to the reigning champs
2. Clemson - best all around quality of wins - toughest strength of schedule thus far
3. Michigan - good team but has not beaten a significant number of winning teams
4. Washington - may be posers feasting on a bunch of mediocre and losing teams

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This update uses the week 9 AP Rankings (i.e. team AP rankings as of the games being played yesterday). Tennessee was ranked #18. Today's AP rankings (week 10) had not been released when I compiled the data and besides, the week 10 AP rankings are irrelevant once the CFP Committee releases their rankings on Tuesday. For reference here were the week 9 AP Rankings for the teams playing yesterday:

1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Louisville
6. Ohio State
7. Nebraska
8. Baylor
9. Texas A&M
10. West Virginia
11. Wisconsin
12. Florida State
13. Boise State
14. Florida
15. Auburn
16. Oklahoma
17. Utah
18. Tennessee
19. LSU
20. Western Michigan
21. North Carolina
22. Navy
23. Colorado
24. Penn State
25. Virginia Tech

AP top 5 - who's beating winners/losers updated

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