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Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession
General Boards - Politics
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Replies: 36  

Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 7:32 AM
Reply

Most recessions begin with a bubble popping. 2000's was the tech bubble. 2008 was the housing bubble.

What bubble pops to start this one?

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housing is a likely suspect this time as well


May 19, 2022, 7:40 AM
Reply

1500 Sq Ft
3 bds, 2 baths

is not worth $525k

I have no idea about gas and crypto and things like that being a "bubble" that can pop, maybe so and maybe not

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I don't think housing is going to be a bubble that pops


May 19, 2022, 7:42 AM
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but more of gas being thrown on an already burning fire.

The moment we finally start the hard slide into the recession, these over priced homes that these companies have gobbled up for 20-50% over market value will be a liability. However, in a recession with very little cash flow, nobody is going to buy them. So these investment companies are going to take a hit. Just not at the beginning of the recession.

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I'd agree with this.


May 19, 2022, 9:17 AM
Reply

The economics of housing are not my forte, but from the (albeit limited) stuff I've read, the situation is perilous but not showing the same characteristics of the 2000s housing crash.

2022 white level member flag link

hey, jimmy.


Re: I'd agree with this.


May 19, 2022, 9:27 AM
Reply

This seems like more of an old school business cycle decline. There is not the same amount of institutional risk as in 2008. Probably going to be more of a Fed Res generated recession to suck money out of the economy and reduce inflation.

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Yep. People are buying houses that are overpriced but they


May 19, 2022, 9:32 AM
Reply

can still afford them. And in many markets, like Charlotte, I just don't see it retracting to a measurable degree in which they would be seriously underwater. At worst, they'll be largely stuck in the house for likely longer than they want, which is bad, but not as bad as the 2008 situation.

The far bigger issue IMO is the lack of inventory. That is a much harder hole to get out of, especially when NIMBYs are ferociously opposed to building newer, denser units.

A 1500sqft. house going for $500k may be overpriced in a normal market, but there just isn't inventory out there, so it sort of is worth that much if you want to buy.

2022 white level member flag link

hey, jimmy.


Re: Yep. People are buying houses that are overpriced but they


May 19, 2022, 9:36 AM
Reply

Char is a little different too, because of the massive growth. And doesn't seem to be slowing down too much.

2022 orange level member flag link

Will they still be able to afford them when they lose


May 19, 2022, 9:59 AM
Reply

their job next year?

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Isn't that a question regardless of the market?***


May 19, 2022, 10:02 AM
Reply



2022 white level member flag link

hey, jimmy.


Why are they losing their job next year?


May 19, 2022, 10:14 AM
Reply

What do you know?

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Re: Why are they losing their job next year?


May 19, 2022, 11:21 AM
Reply

He knows that a crashing economy leads to high unemployment.

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We're doomed!!1!***


May 19, 2022, 11:33 AM
Reply



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Re: Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 8:46 AM
Reply

The "hopes and dreams" bubble is the one bursting. FJB, and anyone that supported this disaster. Of course people that don't have to rely on a good economy for food, energy, and retirement; couldn't care less.

Now carry on with your "where is my freebie of the day coming from" diatribe.

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Re: Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 8:49 AM
Reply



2022 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


they're a little late to the game imo

[1]
May 19, 2022, 8:53 AM
Reply

we've been in a recession, they just dont want to admit it since Biden is reaching ground 0.

highest gas prices ever
stock mkt has been crashed
inflation insane right now
food shortages

Thanks Putin, your reach is global ;)

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True but that's not what dictates a recession***


May 19, 2022, 8:55 AM
Reply



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Re: True but that's not what dictates a recession***


May 19, 2022, 9:01 AM
Reply

A recession is a period of declining economic performance across an entire economy that lasts for several months.


ya, I say we've been there, but whatever. potato potatoe.
Regardless, this sucks horse donkey ##### right now

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Most say a decrease in GDP over 3 quarters is a recession***


May 19, 2022, 9:20 AM
Reply



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He posted what the NBER (The National Bureau of Economic


May 19, 2022, 10:13 AM
Reply

Research) defines as a recession. They are the folks the gov't goes by when a recession is reported.

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Declining economic performance (GDP)


May 19, 2022, 10:13 AM
Reply

over a period of months (3 quarters)

2022 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


Here...read it for yourself.


May 19, 2022, 10:17 AM
Reply

Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?

A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.

https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions#:~:text=A%3A%20The%20NBER's%20traditional%20definition,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.

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Ok and what is commonly referenced as


May 19, 2022, 10:21 AM
Reply

economic activity and time?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp#:~:text=The%20working%20definition%20of%20a,more%20frequently%20reported%20monthly%20data


(2 quarters not 3 I was wrong)


Message was edited by: FBCoachSC®


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Aside from higher prices like food and gas..how


May 19, 2022, 10:11 AM
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does the economy for you "suck(s) horse donkey ##### right now"?

I don't like paying so much for food and gas, but it is what it is. I can't just stop eating or driving.

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we're already in a recession and I'd call it the

[1]
May 19, 2022, 9:12 AM
Reply

Stimulus recession. The massive government payments made during the pandemic coupled with interest rates and b00m

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Shutting down the economy, keeping it closed, and then a


May 19, 2022, 9:16 AM
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series of false starts and quick shutdowns.

2022 white level member flag link

hey, jimmy.


This is a different animal.***


May 19, 2022, 9:25 AM
Reply



2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-tiggity-110.jpg flag link

Tough times create strong men.
Strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men.
Weak men create tough times.


Re: Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 9:35 AM
Reply

I keep laughing when I hear experts say we might go in a recession. Might?? We’re there! Ask the average working stuff and they don’t care about economic forecasting and all that crap.

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Re: Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 9:41 AM
Reply

The logic bubble has popped. People in charge have no logic nor do they seek logic. Emotional woke perspectives drive every moment of every day for these people.

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"these" people?***


May 19, 2022, 9:42 AM
Reply



2022 white level member flag link

hey, jimmy.


The market has priced in a recession


May 19, 2022, 9:58 AM
Reply

so we are there. Nobody knows how bad it will get. We will have republicans in charge of the house and senate but will still have Joe to veto any meaningful bills until we get him gone.

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one thing i do know. If Trump was elected today


May 19, 2022, 11:23 AM
Reply

the mkt would sky rocket tomorrow.

anyone who denies that is a blind partisan

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Your prognosticating lately hasn't been great.


May 19, 2022, 11:33 AM
Reply

https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-forum/message/i-doubt-that-will-be-a-worry***-30689925

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Re: Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 10:13 AM
Reply

Everything in today's economy are knock-on effects of the pandemic and pandemic stimulus. Inflation, historically low unemployment, and now with Fed tightening in response a historically high strength of USD.

Asset bubbles are a completely separate issue in my opinion, because they were largely funded by 14 years of cheap debt, and the flood of money onto the street helped fuel a kind of market nihilism that tended to overvalue everything.

With all that, the broader economy is stronger than people actually realize just based on employment numbers. Demand for labor is the ultimate measure of strength or weakness.

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Joke is on you! All of those gold IRA commercials


May 19, 2022, 10:15 AM
Reply

are saying this is the beginning of the destruction of the USD

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Re: Joke is on you! All of those gold IRA commercials


May 19, 2022, 12:01 PM
Reply

They are trying to distract you from the Dollar Milkshake.

https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/revenge-of-the-dollar-meltdown-in-markets-brent-johnson/


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Aren't you an economics teacher?


May 19, 2022, 2:56 PM
Reply

I'm not writing your lesson plans for you bro. You tell us.

Shoulda gone all cash or short equities here (smart money was out prior to this, I'm sure):
https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-forum/message/bad-sign-30252605


I'm starting to lean towards the idea that the quickest fix for inflation will be a recession. I think I posted something on this a few months ago.

The Fed has come out and said their #1 priority is to curb inflation. Job market is 2x openings to every person unemployed. By their numbers, we have a good ways to come down before we are in trouble.

They fixing to short this ##### until inflation is gone, then get back to focusing on the labor market, is my $0.02.

So the bubble is being intentionally popped (after it's been intentionally inflated) by the Fed. The issue isn't the recession happening. We should have hit a legit recession for covid, but they disallowed that. The issue is that they churned through ~$4T for 2 years to get us into a recession anyways...but hey, some body's gotta make some coin out of this deal.

A better analogy might be a balloon. The Fed blew it up, and now they're going to suck some air out of it while their buddies siphon off the incoming/outgoing air to line their pockets to no one's advantage but their own.

It's one of the advantages of having a centrally planned financial system / economy. We're always a JPow speech away from tendies or giving out HJ's for hire behind a Wendy's.

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Re: Analysts say we are staring down the barrel of a recession


May 19, 2022, 3:01 PM
Reply

Tech and growth in general has already taken a huge hit again. Tech iShare is down 27% YTD a/o yesterday. Russell 1000 growth down 26 and we’re not done yet.

2022 orange level member flag link

Replies: 36  

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