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YOUR BALANCE
All the power rankings have OSU over us, but Vegas
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All the power rankings have OSU over us, but Vegas


Dec 11, 2019, 12:55 PM

has us as the favorite...what do they use to come up with spreads???

2024 white level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Vegas likes to give their money away


Dec 11, 2019, 12:58 PM

They even built lavish hotels there to give more of their money away.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

They probably survey betters to get an idea how it's going


Dec 11, 2019, 12:58 PM

to play out. They don't care who wins or loses, just that there's the same amount of money on both sides as they skim off the top.

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Re: They probably survey betters to get an idea how it's going


Dec 11, 2019, 1:00 PM

This is true, but they can lose more profit for picking wrong, so SOMEONE cares that this is accurate.

2024 white level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

I hear this all the time, and it's true to an extent, BUT


Dec 11, 2019, 2:29 PM [ in reply to They probably survey betters to get an idea how it's going ]

in order to get equal money on both sides they have to set a fairly accurate line to begin with. Let's just say for example (and this is a really extreme example)...

Vegas books open the Fiesta bowl at Clemson +7

Money comes pouring in on Clemson because the smart, professional gamblers see huge value on Clemson with the line like a TD off from where they feel it should be.

Vegas reacts to this by swinging the line quickly until it eventually gets all the way to Clemson -7 in an effort to get equal money on both sides.

Smart betters that took Clemson at +7 now also take Ohio State at +7 sitting up a massive "middle" opportunity where either team winning by less than 7 results in winning BOTH bets. This also hedges both bets so if the middle does not hit they only lose the 10% juice. The expected value on a bet like that would be huge.

The bookies might have ultimately achieved equal money on both sides at the end, however they've done so at the expense of tremendous risk exposing themselves to losing bets on both sides.

In reality lines rarely swing more than a few points and good opportunities to middle a bet are few and far between. Why? Because the opening lines are really #### accurate.

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Re: All the power rankings have OSU over us, but Vegas


Dec 11, 2019, 12:58 PM

Didn’t Vegas have Ohio State over Clemson as well? I though OSU opened at -1 and then the public quickly adjusted the line to what I believe is currently Clemson -2.5

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Re: All the power rankings have OSU over us, but Vegas


Dec 11, 2019, 1:01 PM

I think it opened with Clemson by 3, now its by 1.

2024 white level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: All the power rankings have OSU over us, but Vegas


Dec 11, 2019, 1:09 PM

Actually, the consensus opening line was Clemson - 1.
Today the lines are Clemson -2.0 to -2.5.

So we are favored by a very narrow margin.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

It depends where you look


Dec 11, 2019, 2:10 PM

Some places opened with OSU -1. Others Clemson -2.

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The first opening line reported was Clemson +1


Dec 11, 2019, 2:31 PM [ in reply to Re: All the power rankings have OSU over us, but Vegas ]

That was probably only a couple of casinos. When the others opened the line was already Clemson -1 so most places now show the opening line as Clemson -1. Early money came in pretty hard on Clemson.

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At the end of the day...


Dec 11, 2019, 1:06 PM

the oddsmakers don't care which team wins or loses. They're simply trying to balance their books.

In other words, they are trying to get an equal amount of bets on each team.

If they can accomplish that, they will not lose money.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-20yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


but they are actually making money...


Dec 11, 2019, 2:20 PM

so the spread does have meaning. They need more people to bet on the wrong side than on the right side.

I'm sure they wouldn't do all of that work to break even.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-franc1968.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Throw out September and SP+ has us dead even


Dec 11, 2019, 1:09 PM

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1204488333986091008

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I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me.


Re: Throw out September and SP+ has us dead even


Dec 11, 2019, 2:05 PM

Did they not realize that Bama's best QB went to OU and OU would be in the playoff while Bama would lose at least 2 games?

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Common sense.***


Dec 11, 2019, 2:01 PM



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Re: Common sense.***


Dec 11, 2019, 2:06 PM

Sense is not common...

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Re: Common sense.***


Dec 11, 2019, 2:09 PM

And that's not commomly known

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OK...cents...


Dec 11, 2019, 2:10 PM [ in reply to Re: Common sense.*** ]

Happy now! ;)

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

power rankings are built on relativity...


Dec 11, 2019, 2:17 PM

if your starting point is skewed to begin with, let's say you give extra weight to a slow conference like the Big 10, then your output will be skewed.

I'm thankful to play in the ACC where we can just say all the teams are terrible instead of a conference like the SEC where the teams "beat up on each other."

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