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After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci
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After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 5:41 PM

now argues that the mortality rate of the coronavirus may be much closer to a very bad flu.


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387


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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:04 PM

Like 1918 bad? Normal flu season mortality is 0.1%. This crap is running about 1.5%. For everyone’s sake, I hope there is merit to this article and it comes to fruition.

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Its running close to 1% in the US.

[2]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:05 PM

And that is based on tested results, not how many actually have it.

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Re: Its running close to 1% in the US.

[2]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:06 PM

So 10 times more deadly than the flu in the US so far.

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Re: Its running close to 1% in the US.

[2]
Mar 28, 2020, 5:36 PM

Carlsbad® said:

So 10 times more deadly than the flu in the US so far.




You may not know this, but that flu statistic uses an estimated denominator. They do what's called a flu surveillance to get a statistically derived estimate of the total number of cases. The CDC will eventually do this for SARS-COV2, but that's on the back burner for now. Until then, the comparison of death rates between seasonal flu and COVID-19 is a useless exercise.

The flu is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases. In the U.S., for example, so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 (20.7%) have tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths.

So, no, it's not likely to end up anywhere near 10x more deadly than the flu.

Message was edited by: TigerOmally®


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It's 1.5% right now and that's after the big increase in

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:36 PM

confirmed cases that we've seen the last few days (likely due to more testing). Roughly 101,000 confirmed cases and 1544 deaths right now. That's a tad over 1.5%.

Of course it's possible that we have, say, 300k actually infected right now and then the mortality rate would be 0.5%, but that's still 5x deadlier than the flu and i believe the hospitalization rate is quite a bit higher.

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Re: Its running close to 1% in the US.

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 9:46 PM

It’s actually a 1.5 mortality rate. You are correct that many people have the virus that have not tested. However, the same thing goes for the flu. Many dont go to the doctor, or the doctor doesn’t bother to test them.
As the data comes in, this looks to be 10 + times more lethal per case than our typical annual flu.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:09 PM

The actual death rate is nowhere near 1.5%. It's 1.4% out of known cases. Since a large percentage of people show no symptoms that means there are a LOT of undiagnosed cases. I saw one estimate that the actual number of infections could be as much as ten times the known cases. If that's true then the death rate is in line with a bad moderate flu season.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 27, 2020, 6:17 PM

and lots of people in Italy are also asymptomatic. What is your point? Mortality rates are always calculated this way.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[3]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:23 PM

There have been 6,428 confirmed flu tests, 2,870 hospitalizations, and 109 deaths in SC over the entire flu season. That obvious doesn’t count all of the people who didn’t seek care.

We’re seeing the Coronavirus numbers, with all of the shutdowns that we have in place, basically within a matter of two months and mostly in the past few weeks. SC is still growing cases at 20% average per day...with no vaccine, treatment or built-in population immunity. Hospitals in the state are already getting maxed out and low on supplies. Once we breach that threshold then mortality goes up even more.

People still comparing this to the flu at this point are not paying attention.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 28, 2020, 8:16 AM

The people comparing it to the flu are intentionally being disingenuous.

They’re having a political debate while the rest of us want a medical debate.

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"Smelley, Garcia, and Beecher are going to lead you to 4-8." - york_tiger


Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 28, 2020, 6:54 PM

I don’t know which hospitals you are talking about but I have had virtual appts with pulmonary, infectious disease and oncologist dr this week there are no cases of any patient at roper or st Francis. They have done test on people that have come back positive but none have been admitted, they are not low on beds or supplies, exception of masks. None of them have treated a patient for sure it nor anyone in their practice. Yes it will get worse before better, but Charleston’s hospitals have no issues


Message was edited by: jeancooper®


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Go Tigers! Once A Tiger Always A Tiger


Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 28, 2020, 7:01 PM

Fake news. Roper St. Francis has patients tested positive for Covid.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 28, 2020, 7:11 PM

Did you read my post. Yes they tested positive as outpatient and NO admissions.

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Go Tigers! Once A Tiger Always A Tiger


I doubt unreported flu cases are factored into the mortality

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:41 PM

rate of the flu either. It stands to reason that the actually mortality rate of the flu is probably less than .1%.

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Wrong

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:47 PM

That is the estimated flu mortality rate based on the cases that aren’t even reported.

If you simply look at SC’s cases, 109 people have died out of about 6k positives. That’s almost 2%...and also over the entire flu season which started last Fall. We’ve lost 13 to Coronavirus in a couple of weeks.

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Can someone say definitively what the numerator and

[1]
Mar 28, 2020, 5:19 PM

denominator are for the stated mortality rates for the flu and for COVID-19?

I see a lot of “0.1%” for the flu and “1.5%” for COVID-19, but I’m not sure those are apples-to-apples. Is the flu number estimating the total amount of Americans that get the flu, whether they are diagnosed or not? And is the COVID-19 mortality rate using the same denominator? I’m assuming that the criteria for a death attributed to each disease is comparable (ie, the patient died from it if they had it, regardless of if there were underlying conditions that may have been more significant). I read a bit on the CDC website about how they go back and review death certificates to find anything related to the flu or pneumonia. Just seems like the calculations aren’t quite comparable.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:33 PM

Roughly 8% of NBA players tested positive, most with no symptoms. If that's indicative of the entire population than that means over 20 million have it and its not even remotely as deadly as the flu, only a lot more contagious. That's admittedly a small sample size but there are undoubtedly a ton of people who have it that haven't been tested and aren't going to die. Good luck getting anyone in the media to discuss that. They'd rather blame Trump for some moron eating crap out of his fish tank.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

emoji_events [6]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:38 PM

I’ve always said NBA players are indicative of the entire population. I mean just look at those guys, they’re just like me!

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I don't think that leap of logic works***

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:38 PM

I mean, 0 out of the 200ish people in my neighborhood have a confirmed case so if i apply that to the general population of 330mil, then approximately 0 of them actually have the virus.

Message was edited by: TigersAndCubs®

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:41 PM

It’s amazing how some of you on this board are ignorant of facts or use bs stats to justify their own misguided position. Guess what? NBA players are all in their 20’s and early 30’s. All of the 13 deaths in SC (in less than a month with a shutdown) have been elderly. All of them. That’s who we are trying to protect and they have said as much since the beginning...elderly and people who have underlying health conditions.

So, sorry this might be inconveniencing you atm. This is simple math.

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Sounds like a solid assumption to me. You should try &


Mar 27, 2020, 7:24 PM

get this published in a medical journal. I'm fairly certain no one has thought of this logic before.

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LOL U mean Nike/China controlled plantation ?


Mar 28, 2020, 8:50 AM

Kenye's words,not mine

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 6:47 PM

What a numnut. If the mortality is lower, that still doesn’t account for the higher rate of transmission. If it’s 10x easier to transmit, there’s 10x more people that will die.

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That editorial is a month old

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 7:20 PM

A lot has changed in since February 27.

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Re: That editorial is a month old


Mar 27, 2020, 7:58 PM

You can’t expect him to read the entire thing and see it plainly state “ This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org.”

I mean, OP is smarter than a Doctor of infectious diseases. He doesn’t have time for reading an entire article, that would take up half his day.

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My mistake, he actually wrote it sometime before February 18


Mar 27, 2020, 8:11 PM

That's the date on the conflict-of-interest disclosure.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

emoji_events [7]
Mar 27, 2020, 8:21 PM

I'm a physician at MUSC. Things may not seem bad at MUSC yet but the US is now the epicenter for the spread of this disease. We already have plans for other specialties to cover for the ER and ICU, because there's a shortage of physicians and nurses. That means your sick family and friends will be treated by other specialities. Students will be assuming the role of physicians and graduate early. For every person that gets hospitalized for a "bad flu" it's one less doctor or nurse or EMS that is available to rescue you or a loved one from a heart attack. If you get in a car wreck on the interstate, be prepared to wait for you to get your broken hip fixed. I'll be going to work with no promise that I'll have equipment to protect myself properly. So suck it up and stay at home, because it's not about you anymore.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 27, 2020, 9:35 PM

well said chuck

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Its OP daily praise of Trump post

[1]
Mar 28, 2020, 1:12 AM

If Trump would shut up, I might not dislike him so much. You can't lie in medicine/science like business and politics. It's more concrete with a lot of smart and ethical folks in the professions. Yes, incorrect hypotheses are put forward and refined. It's called the scientific method. Dr. Fauci is an expert with no agenda other than controlling and understanding the pandemic.

Thank you for your service in medical profession by the way. My wife is a nurse, and few people appreciate how thankless that job can be and now dangerous.

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Re: Its OP daily praise of Trump post


Mar 28, 2020, 4:29 PM

^ Thank you.

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I just want you to know that it’s not your fault


Mar 27, 2020, 8:22 PM

and it’s ok.

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We can argue numbers and mortality rate and percentages


Mar 27, 2020, 9:10 PM

All we want - it doesn’t change The reality that in Italy and the US, hospitals are running out of space to store dead bodies. Renting freezer trucks to put them in. That doesn’t happen with the flu

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Re: We can argue numbers and mortality rate and percentages


Mar 28, 2020, 12:09 AM

How many hospitals? I've seen reports of 1 in NYC. Are there others? Where?

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Re: We can argue numbers and mortality rate and percentages

[1]
Mar 28, 2020, 1:50 AM

That's pure BS fear mongering.

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That’s one way to look at it, I guess.


Mar 28, 2020, 8:32 AM

But this administration characterized the risk to the entire US as, “very low” just four weeks ago. And, here we are, now:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospital-capacity-crosses-tipping-point-in-u-s-coronavirus-hot-spots-11585215006


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Re: That’s one way to look at it, I guess.

[1]
Mar 28, 2020, 10:16 AM

And yet Gov. Cuomo admitted yesterday that they still have a thousand ventilators in storage in NYC:

"The hospitals don't need them yet. The hospitals aren't at their apex. The hospitals have enough ventilators today, but their numbers are going up."

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REALITY IS, VERY TIME THEY CLAIM SOME HOSPITAL IS CRAMMED,


Mar 28, 2020, 8:54 AM

a local person goes in and films with their phone to show they are lying. Sanctuary Cities health care systems were already overrun because of ILLEGALS,not a virus/flu.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci

[1]
Mar 27, 2020, 9:12 PM

Researchers at Stanford, among others, believe that this thing will be over much sooner than most projections anticipate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyTTbLA3AZY&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR31CJgteuHqftwoMDiy3cAyZ2bqZdtFfDay_lCBNqVxKjpkwvW7in6VGMk&app=desktop

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That source also promoted one of the nuttier conspiracy


Mar 27, 2020, 10:05 PM

theories: that the virus was invented in a lab in NC.

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Re: That source also promoted one of the nuttier conspiracy


Mar 28, 2020, 12:09 AM

Stanford promoted a nutty conspiracy theory?

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That news "source"


Mar 28, 2020, 1:38 AM

They have spread Russian propaganda in the past, along with crazy alt-right conspiracy stories. The woman who helped spread the crazy NC story, that I believe probably originated with the Chinese government, sits in the briefing every afternoon.

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Re: That news "source"


Mar 28, 2020, 10:15 AM

The source is Stanford. The outlet OAN. Big difference.

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AOC is a Chinese bot.***


Mar 30, 2020, 3:40 PM



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Wonder what it would be if everything were open.***


Mar 27, 2020, 9:43 PM



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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 28, 2020, 1:30 AM

The one thing everyone forgets is this rate is based on known cases. How many have it and have no clue. Lots of people have tested positive and show very little or no symptoms. The more cases that are confirmed will bring the rate down eventually in my non expert opinion.

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Well there's also a lag between transmission and death


Mar 28, 2020, 8:09 AM

People that are dying now contracted the virus weeks ago. How many are going to die in 2-3 weeks now that this thing is really spreading?

I don't have the answer to that but i would expect the average number of deaths per day to continue to steadily rise for a while unless we are able to effectively administer the HCQ + azithromycin on a large scale.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 28, 2020, 3:32 PM

I think a lot more people have it or did and didn’t show symptoms or they were mild.
I was in NYC the whole first week of March all over the city and in both airports.
Six days later I developed a bad sore throat and very fatigued feeling like crap. I tried to get tested but since I didn’t have a cough was denied. After a week or so I felt better and have no issues now.
Who knows if it was the virus or not at this point, but it seems probable. I’m upper 40s in good health. Until full testing is available for the US population we can’t know the true death rate.

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Re: After models proven False,everyone's favorite Dr , Fauci


Mar 28, 2020, 4:34 PM

Regardless of the actual mortality rate, we can't get around the fact that this has saturated hospitals in Italy, NYC, Wuhan, Iran and seems to be on the way to doing so in a few other countries. While it is hard to quantify the hit rate or death rate, itis easy to quantify overrun hospitals. This is obviously worse than a flu.

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It's politics.


Mar 28, 2020, 4:48 PM

POTUS Trump's job is to calm fears and Fauci's job is to make sure everyone respects the virus for what it is, a potentially deadly flu.

People are sometimes forgetful about the good cop and the bad cop routine. They work together for a reason, they have the same goal.

Nobody likes the bad cop. That's normal. Personally, I view Fauci as a worm who projects doom and gloom but that's so no one can criticize Trump for overreacting. Fauci makes a 2 billion dollar spending bill look like chump change to people who think they might die.

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Fauci has said he would take the medicine


Mar 28, 2020, 6:28 PM

if he had the virus. The whole slow down to hurt Trump is bullchit and DEMTARDS ARE GONNA PAY FOR IT. IT'S GLORIOUS AND ENTERTAINING.

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Do you own stock, in the company that

[1]
Mar 28, 2020, 6:39 PM

Makes this stuff...or...never mind. No WAY you hold the patent.

It's pretty clear you're 'all in' on this treatment. Show me your M.D. diploma, and I'll give you the same respect I'm giving to Dr. Fauci, soywaker®, clem tiger and others on the front lines. No one has really denied the potential, but those who have listened to Dr. Fauci...and others, aren't ready to simply stroll into the fire...until there's virtually no alternative. At the present...for the 98% of the world...it's not at the 'no alternative' stage.

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