Clemson makes move in metric tied to winning national titles
|Monday, June 14, 2021, 11:19 AM-|
Clemson's success over the last decade -- and particularly in the Playoff era -- has it in an elite group from a talent standpoint.
After coming in seventh last year, Dabo Swinney's group is up to fourth in 247Sports' Blue-Chip Ratio (67%), which judges the teams that can realistically challenge for a national title by top-rated recruits signed (50% ratio of blue-chip recruits signed and up).
The top-three remained the same year-to-year with Alabama (84) getting a little separation from Georgia (80) and Ohio State (79). Southern Cal (53) rounds out a group of 16 contenders and Miami is the only other team from the ACC with a shot per the metric (55).
Alabama's last two national titles have come with an over 80% ratio, with 2019 LSU (64) and 2018 Clemson (61) in the 60% range with their crowns.
To judge how far Clemson has come in the ratio, the Tigers had a 52% rate of blue-chip recruits in the 2016 title season, which was the lowest figure for a champion in the last decade.
247Sports' Bud Elliott says the proposed 12-team Playoff might only strengthen the metric's success.
"It is obviously going to be easier for a sub-50 percent recruiter to get a shot at a title, such as Michigan State in 2015 or Washington in 2016, but tougher to actually win," Elliott said. "Non-BCR teams are 2-6 so far in Playoff games, including four losses by three or more scores. The only Playoff win by a non-BCR team over a BCR team was 2014, when Oregon beat FSU.
"But now Cinderella stories will likely have to win three games in a row against teams who are presumably above the BCR threshold. While I have stated that the BCR should not be used to pick games individually, common sense says it is difficult to pull off a three-game parlay against other playoff teams without a ton of Blue-Chip talent."