Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Louisville projections |
Clemson and Louisville is a meeting of teams with home/away splits that make Saturday's action at Cardinal Stadium intriguing (7:30 p.m./ACCN).
The Cardinals (4-4, 2-3 ACC) may not have exactly played a murderer’s row for the home slate, but they are 3-1 with wins over Eastern Kentucky (30-3), UCF (42-35) and Boston College (28-14), with the lone loss coming by a point to the team with the fourth-best record in the ACC (34-33 to Virginia). That works out to a +11.8 average scoring margin and a 111-yard margin at home, which is compared to Clemson’s away splits that leave the Tigers minus-3.5 in average scoring margin with a minus-110 yard margin over a 1-3 record outside the friendly confines of Death Valley. On turnovers, Clemson (5-3, 4-2) is actually plus-one in the margin there away, while the Cardinals are plus-two at home (but even in turnover margin against FBS competition). Here’s the metrics overview of the matchup: Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks ($) (No. 4 overall): 46 | 4 | 41 LOU SP+ ranks (No. 41 overall): 16 | 71 | 57 CU FPI ranks (No. 10 overall): 88 | 6 | 30 LOU FPI ranks (No. 49 overall): 49 | 33 | 64 -- Through eight games, Clemson is obviously not the fourth-best team in the country, as espoused by ESPN’s SP+ formula, which is one of the more confounding advanced metric findings in quite some time. Still, Brent Venables’ defense is really good with top-10 rankings from the SP+ (4), Football Power Index (6) and FEI (7). They face a mid-to-upper tier Louisville offense led by a top-25 QB by ESPN's rating with dual-threat Malik Cunningham (No. 25; 72.7; Clemson starter DJ Uiagalelei ranks 109th, 38.6). Passing, Cunningham is 10th in the ACC in QB rating (137.58), 10th in completion percentage (60.5) and seventh in yards per attempt (8.2), but the junior is seventh among all league rushers by yardage and tied for the most rushing scores (13). Cunningham shares that top rushing-score spot with Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader, who was held by Clemson to a season-low rushing total as a starter (six yards on seven attempts) and one rushing TD in a 17-14 loss. If Cunningham is contained like that, that could give a Clemson offense needing confidence some much-needed breathing room to figure things out under the lights against a mid-tier Louisville defensive group. On to the odds and projections... Odds (via VegasInsider as of 11/4 morning) Clemson -4; 46 over/under. Metrics outlook SP+ projection: 71% Clemson (Tigers by 9.7) ESPN FPI: 70.2% Clemson (Tigers by 9.2 points*) FEI: 54.9% Clemson (Tigers by 2.1) TeamRankings: Clemson by 3.3 * Projected margin on a neutral field. -- There are some significant swings when it comes to the projected Clemson-Louisville spread by analytical outlet. The ESPN umbrella of sites see a fairly easy, second-straight cover of the odds by Clemson, with the SP+ again a big fan. The FEI and Team Rankings metrics, which have more sharply adjusted to the Tigers’ 2021 issues, see Louisville covering the number but the Tigers escaping Kentucky with a win. Another metric we’ve tracked lately with CFB-Graphs.com narrowly picks the Cardinals (54% chance/24.86-23.45 projected score): CLEMSON @ LOUISVILLE pic.twitter.com/z5Lb4EA00o By way a crazy set of circumstances, Clemson did finally cover a spread last week, and it has some more pieces offensively at skill positions than at Pitt, when there were moments the Tigers looked poised to breakthrough. If Clemson can find a way to limit critical offensive mistakes and contain Cunningham, the Tigers could make things a little easier on themselves in the fourth quarter, but nothing has come easy to this point against FBS foes this season. Prediction Clemson 21, Louisville 16 (Situational stats per CFBStats.com. SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. FPI is the Football Power Index that has a similar projection-style model from ESPN as well. FEI is a Football Outsiders projection tool that judges team efficiency for a projection.)
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