Clemson fan's viewing guide to the 2023 NFL draft

Projections vary on Trenton Simpson but his athleticism will give plenty of NFL GMs a decision to make (Merrell Mann photo).

by Ryan Kantor - Contributor - Mon Apr 24 07:00:16 GMT-04:00 2023

The 2023 NFL draft begins on Thursday, April 27th. It always makes for an interesting clash of familiar and new. College football fans are taken aback by explanations of why college stars won’t make it at the next level and NFL fans are introduced to players we long ago considered household names.

College fans are often dumbfounded by the seemingly odd potential-over-production decisions NFL franchises consistently make. The Bears’ selection of Mitchell Trubisky (UNC) over Patrick Mahomes (TTU) and Deshaun Watson (Clemson) is the most obvious example. The 49ers' selection of Trey Lance from North Dakota State with the third pick of the 2021 draft is another memorable head-scratcher.

Of course, they’re not always wrong. Josh Allen’s best year at Wyoming ended with 28 TDs and 15 INTs – not exactly dominant – but the Bills' decision to take him at No. 7 in the 2018 draft proved wise. Likewise, seeing Tajh Boyd, the ACC’s all-time leading TD thrower at the time, drop to the sixth round was vexing. Then he got cut before the season and didn’t materialize as the draft day steal we expected. Mitch Hyatt, arguably the best offensive lineman in Clemson history, didn’t even get drafted. As we enter the 2023 draft, you can expect NFL teams to once again focus on potential over production.

This year, Clemson fans can expect to see six to eight Tigers hear their names selected. Below are the PFF grades, which again come from PFF scouts watching game film, for the top six Clemson NFL draft prospects:

Before we start taking about mock drafts, let's appreciate what these guys did in college. Who had the best college career? Who did you enjoy watching most? Best memories? pic.twitter.com/QMClLdOyJY
— Ryan Kantor (@ryan_kantor) April 22, 2023

KJ Henry had the best season of this group last year, while Jordan McFadden can lay claim to the best overall college career. Myles Murphy had a good, albeit not dominant season tallying 11 tackles for loss (TFL) and 6.5 sacks. He was a very solid defensive end for Clemson, but he didn’t become the superstar many expected and at one point was said to be “loafing” on plays.

Bryan Bresee played in 10 games last season and finished with 15 tackles and 3.5 sacks. He only played in 25 games in his career at Clemson. His 2020 season was truncated by COVID restrictions limiting him to 11 games. In 2021, he only played in four games due to injury. Last season, he missed time due to a family tragedy and a kidney issue. The former all-world five-star recruit never really got a chance to reach his potential at Clemson, but that won’t stop NFL teams from salivating over the potential.

Trenton Simpson moved from outside linebacker to the inside last season and struggled. When he missed the Louisville game, coaches moved Barrett Carter inside and saw that he not only could handle it – but thrived. That allowed them to move Simpson back outside to the SAM linebacker which helped elevate his play. His best season was as a sophomore when he had 12.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks. He had just four TFLs and 2.5 sacks last season. Fortunately, he is an athletic freak and posted an outstanding 4.43 second 40-yard dash while weighing in at 235 lbs.

Based on several mock drafts, here is how NFL teams are looking at this group of Clemson Tigers:

Let's hear your draft day predictions for these #Clemson Tigers. pic.twitter.com/sUoBvTaxx1
— Ryan Kantor (@ryan_kantor) April 23, 2023

Murphy appears to be a near-lock to go in the first round. Bresee could go in the first round or fall into the second round. If he were to head to Jacksonville as CBS Sports’ Josh Edwards projects, Clemson fans could have a lot of fun watching him play with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne.

Simpson has a wide band of projections stretching from pick 23 to pick 71 in these four mock drafts. Along with the potential-over-production theme, I expect NFL teams to be excited about his combination of speed and size. The first round is to an extent reserved for a quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive line or cornerback, so he may drop to the second round, but the third round would surprise me.

Davis Allen is a bit of a wild card. He peaked last season with 443 yards and 5 TDs. He is a well-rounded tight end, but isn’t an athletic freak or someone who was super productive in college.

Henry, likewise is a bit of a wild card. He had a long college career, but he was only a star for one of those years. He had a slow development curve for a former five-star prospect, but when it came together, he was excellent. NFL scouts may worry there isn’t a ton of development left there. I’d really like to see him go in the first three rounds, but that is no sure thing.

McFadden had an excellent Clemson career and reportedly wasn’t 100% healthy last season. He is a player who deserves to go early, but he isn’t tall for an offensive tackle (6-foot-2) and will likely move inside to guard. He ran a 4.99 40-yard dash, excellent for an O-lineman. Mock drafts have him as high as the fourth round and as low as the seventh round. I’ll be especially rooting for him in this draft for his own sake and because a high selection could also aid Clemson’s future recruiting on the offensive line.

Finally, BT Potter and Joseph Ngata are in the draft. Both have a chance to be selected in the sixth or seventh rounds. Potter is excellent, but teams are understandably hesitant to invest much in a kicker who hasn’t proven it at the NFL level. Ngata’s decision to enter the draft was a curious one. He reminds me a bit of Aaron Kelly who was phenomenal at Clemson, but he ran a 4.49 40-yard dash and went undrafted in part because he didn’t have excellent speed. Ngata didn’t have comparable college production and ran a 4.54. For comparison, Nebraska’s Trey Palmer had the best time among wide receivers at 4.33. I don’t expect Ngata to get drafted, but I am hoping he is able to sneak in before the end and prove the doubters wrong.

Clemson fans will have names to listen for all the way from the first round until the final pick. It should be a fun couple days before the offseason doldrums resume.