Breaking down one potential three-way ACC tiebreaker scenario for Clemson |
The conference race is heating up.
Invitations for the party of the expanded playoff are drawing closer, and the ACC might have too many teams with an RSVP. Heading into the final weeks of October, four teams in the conference hold an undefeated record. Clemson (5-0), Miami (3-0), SMU (3-0), and Pittsburgh (3-0) have all faired well within their ACC matchups. However, this tiebreaker we’re tackling only concerns three teams, with Clemson and SMU both playing the Panthers, which may result in Pat Narduzzi’s squad being left out of the equation. For the sake of hypotheticals, what would happen if that became a reality and both the Tigers and Mustangs took Pittsburgh out? Let's also picture a December where the Tigers, Canes, and Mustangs all finish 8-0 in ACC play. In this scenario, the ACC will use the combined win percentage of conference opponents to determine who will play in Charlotte in early December. This win percentage is specific to each team's record in conference play, not their overall record. To determine right now who will receive the bids to play in the ACC Championship, let’s take a look at the teams these programs have faced and who they will see soon. From there, we can take the win percentage of those schedules and determine who would play in the title game now, and who fans may have to start pulling for to flip the odds. CLEMSON TIGERS North Carolina State (4-4, 1-3 ACC) .250 Stanford (2-5, 1-3 ACC) .250 Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC) .167 Wake Forest (3-4, 1-2 ACC) .333 Virginia (4-3, 2-2 ACC) .500 LEFT TO PLAY Louisville (4-3, 2-2 ACC) .500 Virginia Tech (4-3, 2-1 ACC) .667 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) 1.000 Combined Current Opponent ACC Win Percentage: .419 MIAMI HURRICANES Virginia Tech (4-3, 2-1 ACC) .667 California (3-4, 0-4 ACC) .000 Louisville (4-3, 2-2 ACC) .500 LEFT TO PLAY Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC) .167 Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) .667 Georgia Tech (5-3, 3-2 ACC) .600 Wake Forest (3-4, 1-2 ACC) .333 Syracuse (5-2, 2-2 ACC) .500 Combined Current Opponent ACC Win Percentage: .406 SMU MUSTANGS Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC) .167 Louisville (4-3, 2-2 ACC) .500 Stanford (2-5, 1-3 ACC) .250 LEFT TO PLAY Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) .667 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) 1.000 Boston College (4-3, 1-2 ACC) .333 Virginia (4-3, 2-2 ACC) .500 California (3-4, 0-4 ACC) .000 Combined Current Opponent ACC Win Percentage: .387 If this is the tiebreaking scenario the ACC has to use, Clemson is currently positioned best, followed by Miami and then SMU. Avoiding a currently winless California team doesn't hurt. Despite the nailbiting scenario where someone with a calculator may decide the matchup in Charlotte, three 11+ win teams might be enough for multiple teams to secure a bid for the College Football Playoff. Another factor is that Pittsburgh rolls into the mix and beats either SMU or Clemson, leaving out the need for a tiebreaking scenario. Given the likelihood that Alabama stays with two losses or ends up with three, the dominoes in the SEC falling apart could be beneficial to a conference that has been without a representative in the big dance since 2020. Much like the messaging has been inside the building for the open date, all of Clemson's goals are right in front of them. Maybe, the playoffs truly start in November. Win out, and you're likely in regardless of a trip to Charlotte. As the playoff race continues to heat up, the Tigers may not be the only ones in their conference getting an invitation to dance with the best the country has to offer in December.
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