Updated ESPN projections, outlook for Clemson and the ACC |
ESPN's Bill Connelly released a more detailed look at Clemson and the ACC this week with
the SP+ college football metric ($).
In figures already released, Florida State is ranked two spots (10) ahead of Clemson (12) overall with the metric this season. Clemson is projected with Top 25 units on offense (21) and defense (11), but so is FSU offensively (19) and defensively (14). By the model, they are neck-and-neck, however, with Clemson actually a tick higher in average total wins (9.4-9.3) but FSU is likewise in conference play (6.3-6.2). The next tier ACC wins-wise is Louisville (5.5) and UNC (5.2). On conference title odds, the metric has Clemson (29%) and FSU (28%) up top, with UNC the only other team with a double-digit percentage (10%). "Even with the offensive improvement last season, Clemson actually fell from 11th to 14th overall in SP+ because the defense slipped more than the offense improved," Connelly said. "The defense had no clear and obvious weaknesses in coordinator Wes Goodwin's first year, but it went from great to good in a lot of categories and slipped from first to 25th in defensive SP+. A sophomore-heavy secondary was a little on the passive side, and the line battled injuries; even with more offensive improvement likely, the defense will need to at least bounce back to a top-15-or-so level for Clemson to have national aspirations. "It has the talent to do so. Tackles Ruke Orhorhoro and Tyler Davis combined for 19 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks, and after missing most of 2022 with injury, sixth-year end Xavier Thomas should provide a boost on the edge. Nickelback Barrett Carter and linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 18 passes defended, 24 run stops) are incredibly well-rounded. An aggression boost in the secondary could make a big difference." Will Shipley and Trotter made Connelly's favorite ACC players. "Shipley hits the hole as hard as anyone, he almost completely avoids negative plays, and he averaged 7.0 yards per carry outside the tackle box. The former top-25 recruit has lived up to all billing," said Connelly. "When Trotter rushed the passer, he got there (6.5 sacks, 20% pressure rate). When he dropped into coverage, he was as good as any nickelback (2 INTs, 7 breakups, 0.4 QBR allowed). He even made 15 run stops! All-around force."
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