ESPN analyst skeptical on ACC/Clemson-FSU settlement, sees programs in prime position to leave |
Brandon Rink
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- Friday, March 07 2025
This week, the ACC achieved at least a momentary peace for its future with the settlement of ongoing lawsuits with Florida State and Clemson.
A TV ratings-based adjustment is expected to funnel more money to marquee football programs such as the two teams that the conference settled with. Another key feature of the move was a sliding scale figure for seeking to exit the league, and that the media rights would definitively go with the team if they paid that figure. Starting next fiscal year, that number is $165 million, and it reduces by $18 million by year until it's down to $75 million in the 2030-31 academic year and beyond. Greg McElroy, a college football analyst for a key player in this ordeal with ACC media rights-holder ESPN, is skeptical about the move's long-term success. "Yes, you calm the waters with the Tigers and the Seminoles," McElroy said on his podcast this week, "but now do you potentially take money out of Virginia? Out of their bottom-line? Because I don't think that'd be a very good play long-term. Because guess what, if Virginia decides to write a check in 2030 to leave the ACC, you know who's going to want them? The same can be said for North Carolina. "If North Carolina starts taking a loss because Clemson and Florida State are getting more, and North Carolina starts taking a little bit of a loss, that's great, but guess what, when North Carolina writes that $75 million check in six years, everybody's going to want them to." McElroy says it's a temporary win for Clemson and FSU, but it could also prepare some other schools for a move. "The teams with the most leverage in possible conference realignment are not Clemson and Florida State. It's North Carolina (and) Virginia," McElroy said. "Why? Because North Carolina-Virginia are bordering states to the Southeastern Conference, and it would be continuous as the SEC has made it a priority so that if they expand -- they want bordering states...North Carolina-Virginia would be very attractive to the Southeastern Conference if they were available, but guess what, the Big Ten also wants North Carolina-Virginia, because they're outstanding academic institutions and they align culturally with what the Big Ten as been in the past. "So it'll be interesting. It's great that we've solved today's problem. That's amazing, but when we fast forward to 2030, we're going to have more problems as a result of this settlement than we had coming in." Of course, that could be an outdated thought on the future of the sport. There have been rumblings over the years, and even suggested by Clemson's head coach Dabo Swinney multiple times, of a "super league" for football that's outside of the traditional conference structure. CBS' Dennis Dodd wrote about that this week: You should remember the Super League and Project Rudy that were largely dismissed by the power commissioners when the proposals came out last year. Both of their models would reduce the highest level of college football to 70-80 schools with centralized governance. That centralized governance and outside investment would unlock billions that have been tied up in separate conference media rights deals over the years. Essentially, that would mean less loyalty to the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 and more loyalty to whoever is running that combo of 70-80 schools. It would also cause a lot of people to alter their career paths. Greg Sankey (SEC commissioner) and Tony Pettiti (Big Ten commissioner) might be out of a job in that model. The Super League folks were so brash in their roll out, CBS Sports asked one of their members last year about the prospects of the SEC and Big Ten commissioners role in a new college football landscape. "We'd buy them out," that person said, more than half seriously. The column went on to say that a Power Conference administrator said that the next major shift won't wait until 2030. More from McElroy:
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