Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Boston College projections |
Clemson found a rhythm in all phases of the game in a top-10 win over NC State and now the charge is continuing that improvement in a charged night environment at Boston College on Saturday (7:30 p.m./ABC).
Dabo Swinney’s 5-0 Tigers hit the road as a near three-touchdown favorite over an Eagles team fresh off of their first conference win in three tries this season. Here’s the snapshot of the two teams through five games each: Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks ($) (18): 25 | 19 | 60 BC SP+ ranks (89): 112 | 64 | 89 CU FPI ranks (5): 13 | 55 | 69 BC FPI ranks (95): 102 | 90 | 123 CU FEI ranks (8): 23 | 8 | | 23 BC FEI ranks (101): 110 | 89 | 123 – Metrics are still trying to get a read on Clemson, which continued to drop overall in ESPN’s SP+ from 13th to 18th but moved up in the FEI (to No 8) and held steady at No. 5 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The cumulative numbers are rough for the Eagles after some pretty poor performances in the first three FBS games, but the offensive efficiency did pick up against Louisville with a 76.6 grade overall according to PFF, which was their highest mark against an FBS foe since mid-November last year against Georgia Tech (81.9). Here’s a look at the Eagles in the first games versus the 34-33 win over Louisville: First four (1-3): Scoring - 20.8 PPG | Yards (total/pass/rush)- 283.3 YPG (4.3 per play)/223.5/59.8 | 3rd down - 32.8% Louisville game: Scoring - 34 points | Yards (total/pass/rush) 448 yards (7.9 per play)/304/144 | 3rd down - 43.8% Now, Louisville ranks 77th in defensive efficiency according to the SP+ metric, so they’ve been a cure for a number of offenses this year, but the Eagles will carry some confidence into this game. Jeff Hafley’s BC team tied things up in Death Valley less than a minute into the third quarter last year but were shut out the rest of the way as BT Potter's four-field goal day was the difference in a 19-13 win. Three Boston College players to watch 1. WR Zay Flowers - Flowers is one of the top offensive players in the nation and easily grades as the best player for BC on offense. The 5-foot-10 dynamo has topped double-digits in targets in three of BC’s five games with 33 catches for 482 yards and five scores (151 yards on five catches with two touchdowns coming last week). The Eagles line him up out wide (62% this season) and in the slot (37.5%) and he’s received some opportunities as a rusher as well. Zay Flowers made this catch in double coverage pic.twitter.com/DXIdb7fhTX Zay Flowers is THAT DUDE pic.twitter.com/mj3TVVjt85 2. QB Phil Jurkovec - Within that improved performance as a unit last week, there were some definite pitfalls in Jurkovec’s day, having a hand in three turnovers (although not really helped out by teammates on two of the three). He did throw for 304 yards and three scores and a 77.9 passing grade was his best since that same GT game referenced earlier (92.9). With those first four games factored in, Jurkovec is performing well below his career PFF grades (62.4) with a 63.2% completion rate, 10 TDs to six interceptions and a big-time throw rate that’s dropped by 10% from 2021 to 2022 (12.5% to 2.5%; two of his four this season coming last week, however). Jurkovec was not healthy enough to play in last year’s game against Clemson, but he connected on 50% of his throws for 204 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in the 34-28 loss to the Tigers in 2020. Rutgers DB Christian Braswell picks off Phil Jurkovec! pic.twitter.com/2TSr0162pK This was ugly. Like real ugly. 3. DE Donovan Ezeiruaku - The sophomore defender paces the Eagles in PFF grade (80.4) with a strong mark against the run (87.2), two sacks, 10 QB hurries, 15 stops and two forced fumbles. Sometimes, things just don't go your way. Great play from Donovan Ezeiruaku to fight and bend through the block and still chop the ball out. Odds Clemson -20.5; 48.5 over/under. Metrics predictions SP+ projection: Clemson 35-15 (87% Clemson projection) ESPN FPI: 93.7% Clemson projection TeamRankings*: Clemson 34-14 FEI: Clemson 37-11 (96.2% Clemson projection) CLEMSON @ BOSTON COLLEGE pic.twitter.com/Kwhf3jZIgL *In the above link as well. Analysis: Understandably, none are picking anything resembling a close game, but the FEI model is particularly confident in Clemson with a 26-point edge projected. The FEI hit on Clemson and the points in the first two FBS matchups and missed the mark on the last two. The SP+ is also 2-2 against the spread with Clemson in FBS games and narrowly takes BC to get within the projected spread. CFBGraphs is taking Clemson to cover the number in comparing BC’s 113th ranking in offensive success rate against a top-40 Clemson defense there (38th) and a top-60 Clemson offense in success rate (55th) against a top-60 BC defense there (57th). Clemson’s efficiency regarding scoring both offensively and defensively makes a difference as well (20th in net points per drive) compared to BC (98th in net points per drive). Last time on the road, Clemson scored 38 in regulation against Wake Forest, and versus a solid NC State offense, the defense improved after struggles in the double OT win at Winston-Salem. The question will be if BC can get the ball enough to Flowers to stay relatively close, but Clemson’s offense should find some balance efficiency for a comfortable margin under the lights. Pick: Clemson -20.5 Remaining schedule power rankings 1. Notre Dame - Clemson has probably passed its two biggest tests of the regular season already, but the Fighting Irish could rejoin the conversation with a neutral site win in Las Vegas over BYU this weekend. 2. Syracuse - The Orange stayed undefeated in style with a 59-0 win over one of the worst teams in Division I with Wagner (0-4 now and rated No. 125 out of 131 FCS teams by the SP+ formula). 3. Florida State - FSU’s stay in the top-25 was short-lived after Wake Forest largely controlled the action in a 31-21 Demon Deacons in Tallahassee. The 4-1 Seminoles get a chance to stay in the divisional race though this week going to No. 14 NC State. 4. Boston College - Is BC really the fourth-best team left on the schedule? We’ll get a good look on Saturday, but they own one more conference win now than anybody below them on this particular power ranking. 5. Louisville - The Cards dropped to 0-3 versus non-Florida-directional schools and 0-3 in ACC play after getting shut out in the fourth quarter – dynamic QB Malik Cunningham out for a good chunk of that – while the home BC Eagles notched a pair of field goals to get the 1-point win. 6. Miami - Probably a welcome bye week before jumping into conference play hosting UNC this week. 7. South Carolina - Swapping out one name for another, beating SC State isn’t going to move the needle, but a win is a win.
Trying to avoid the sack, BC QB Phil Jurkovec threw the ball away, but it went backwards.
BC RB Pat Garwo III tried to recover the now-fumble. Instead, though, Louisville's YaYa Diaby hopped on it.
Third Eagles turnover of the game. pic.twitter.com/QZTmULRBYQ
But, Josh DeBerry and Cam Horsley collide trying to recover the ball, allowing Rutgers to recover/force it out of bounds. pic.twitter.com/8uMDDT1lWb
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