Re: The reason why we lost to Miami ... its pretty obvious ...

No you take the shot that will net you the most points per possession. Shooting % isn't critical. Possessions and points per possession are key.

Shoot 20% from three, you need to shoot 30% from 2 to keep up
Shoot 30% from three, you need to shoot 45% from 2 to keep up
Shoot 40% from three, you need to shoot 60% from 2 to keep up
Shoot 50% from three, you need to shoot 75% from 2 to keep up

That is how 16 seeds and other mid-majors have been clawing away at the big boys. That is how UMBC knocked off UVA a few years ago, you shoot 50% from three and take enough of them, you will beat almost anyone. I say almost because like our GT game earlier, you can shoot 50% but if they are shooting 58% then it isn't close.

Nearly every team will shoot about 40-50% overall in college basketball. The better teams will short upper 40s, thee 3 wins vs DII programs will shoot low 40s. Thus if you can barely shoot 31% from the arc, you will win a lot of games. Teams with the worse 3pt offense tends to be at the bottom of the table. Only the dunk city options can keep up... but that requires a very specific set of players and they are a bit more rare. Even the best, best hall of fame big-men struggle to shoot 60% at the rim... aka the value of your average sharp-shooter.

Miami used the "last resort" option in college basketball - spread the floor and rely on1 or 2 players to drive the ball in isolation ball. There is little "coaching" with that (unless you use Boeheim's zone - what was developed to deal with the BE's guards) as it really is pitting specific players of who is going to have a hot/cold day. If they are hot, it can be very useful, if not, well you were going to lose anyway. If the team was a 3 point threat (and Miami wasn't)... guess what, you don't collapse. We didn't foul often anyways even with the dribble penetration.

In college the 3 is more important. Fewer possessions thus that extra point becomes even more valuable. Those One and done are the athletic big-men. Zions. Or unreal guards (often still 6'6"+) However, you can build a team of snipers a lot easier and thus you develop a perimeter oriented defense.

FutureDoc

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Re: We agree to disagree ...

Mar 12, 2021, 4:56 PM [ in reply to We agree to disagree ... ]

Hey, I was bough up in the old school. My father (former college player and wished he went into coaching than sports marketing) would rant and rave about how "kids" should not be taking 3s as they are "low percentage". I think I might be the youngest kid to know how to post up while "only" being 6'3". No one stunted my basketball career (lol) more than the "high percentage" philosophy.

Low percentage (or high) shots only works when the point available are equal. After that, it becomes a tradeoff.

While I was a decent defender, I was an offensive liability because I could not contribute to stretching the court. I did not develop a decent shot past 18' and really was only effective inside with a short pull up or, if I could, layup. Still, even if I shot 60% on my best days (I was really about 40%) then I wasn't a offensive value.

Now, if you change thew game, the make-it take-it style then high percentage matters. I was always better 1v1 there. If teams played to "21" it would be different as well. I am not the person you would want to play make-it take-it because then I would control your opportunities with high percentage shots.

However, it comes down to simple statistics. Only going to get X possessions per game. Thus the point per possession is critical. You can shoot high percentages but then you really need to limit opposing possession because you will be giving up a point every turn just to keep percentage up. The winner of the game is about the most points, not the percentage.

If you make lay-ups 100% of all possession, then you can score 100 points on 50 possessions (we had 49 vs Miami). That is the upper ceiling. Nothing more you can do and each miss from that would hurt more. 50% from the floor, you are capped to 50 possible points.So think of each miss as counting down from 100= "ceiling". The 3 raises the ceiling to 150 points. Each miss hurts less because you are starting at a higher threshold. If miss 16 of your 50 shots but they are from 3, well you still scored 102. But back to the ceiling. Every "dunk" costs your team a point. Even when "successful" you lose points that could be available. If chosing a two with 150 points available per 50 possession, you are surrendering 50 points from the get-go.

Basically, with each possession, you have the opportunity for 3 points (really 4 but less not count fouls for now). With each two, you "choose" to lose one point IF you make it. Basically every two point bucket is a sacrifice. A discounted possession... and you only have a limited number of those to sacrifice.

Fun times, beers next week

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The reason why we lost to Miami ... its pretty obvious ...

You're having "from I you?"

Re: You're having "from I you?"