Phill Steele (the standard for preseason AP polls) being paid off by ESPN? Look @ the contradictions

May 22, 2015, 10:52 AM

Phil Steele's Projected AP Top 25

In each of the past six years, during the offseason, I have come up with a projected Top 10 of the preseason AP poll on my website. I do this by taking several different factors into account:

• Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. FIRST, they look at the number of returning starters the team has coming back, PARTICULARLY OFFENSIVE SKILL POSITIONS. A TEAM THAT RETURNS its starting QB and a combination of its RBs and WRs, for example, is often more highly regarded than a team that loses its starting quarterback but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly, a team that returns most of its starters on offense BUT LOSES A LOT OF THEIR DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKERS is usually more HIGHLY REGARDED than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill players on offense.
• Another factor weighed HEAVILY is the PERFORMANCE of the team in its BOWL GAME, which is undoubtedly the lasting image that voters carry with them during the offseason. A team coming off a HUGE BOWL WIN is usually more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss, regardless of what its schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
• Also heavily considered is where the team FINISHED THE PREVIOUS YEAR. Naturally, those that finished somewhere in the rankings (Top 25) have a much better chance of being preseason Top 10 than a team that finished unranked last year.
Using these factors -- and a few others, such as strength of schedule -- I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the start of February, which in most cases is six months in advance of the poll's release. Now, as you all know, a lot can happen between February and August. That includes injuries, suspensions, transfers along with coaching decisions. Over the past six years, I have been very successful using this method, correctly projecting 56 of 60 teams (93.3 percent), including a PERFECT 10-for-10 AGAIN in 2014.
Before I go into the rankings, it is important to make the point that this is NOT my preseason Top 10 for next season, but rather what I am projecting the AP Top 10 will look like to start the season. If you're familiar with my College Football Preview Magazine, you will know that every year I tend to go out on a limb for a couple of teams in my Top 10, and this year will be no different.
Now, let's take a look back at my projected preseason AP Top 10 teams, which was first released as an ESPN Insider article on 2/13/15.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes were thought to be a year away from their best team and a national title, but even down to a QB who was third string at the start of August, they went out and upset Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, upset Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and upset Oregon in the championship game. I do believe this year's team is even stronger than the 2014 version and, unlike last summer when the QB depth was questioned by many, they now have three quarterbacks who have either been a Heisman contender or led the team to a national title. OSU is the first defending champ since LSU in 2007 to not lose a single underclassmen early to the NFL draft. OSU had a lot of super sophomores last year. Not only do they have 15 returning starters, but the Buckeyes' road games this year are against Virginia Tech, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois and Michigan, and not a single one of those teams drew a single vote in the AP poll, and they weren't even among the top 38 at the end of last year.

2. TCU Horned Frogs
Every year people ask me for my favorite team, and I always say, "The team I picked higher than everyone else." That team last year was the TCU Horned Frogs, who were coming off a 4-8 season but were my No. 1 Most Improved Team, and the Frogs did not disappoint me, nearly landing in the College Football Playoff. Had Ohio State not defeated Oregon in the manner it did, TCU very well could be the preseason No. 1 team. The Frogs beat their opponents last year by an average of 46.5-19. TCU outgained its foes by 191 yards per game last year and finished No. 1 in my individual game grade category, and in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl they destroyed No. 9 Ole Miss 42-3 with a 423-129 edge in yardage. This year, the Frogs have 14 returning starters, including Trevone Boykin, RB Aaron Green and their top 3 receivers in Josh Doctson, Kolby Listenbee and Deante' Gray. They do have to play Kansas State and Oklahoma on the road, but I'll call for them to land at No. 2 in the AP poll in August.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tide brought in another No. 1-rated recruiting class. As happens every year, and heading into the playoffs last year, they were the team favored to win it all before getting upset by the Buckeyes. Yes, they have just 11 returning starters including only four back on offense, but the Tide just rolls new players into the key spots each year. The biggest loss on offense is WR Amari Cooper, but they have one of the best sets of running backs in the country, and keep in mind Blake Sims had no starting experience last year, so this year's QB could put up similar stats in the Lane Kiffin offense. With seven starters back from a defense that is always at the top, Alabama will definitely be in the top 5, and I think they land as high as No. 3.

4. Baylor Bears
Baylor finished last year No. 7, and had it not blown a late lead against Michigan State in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, it would have finished even higher. This year, the Bears have an amazing 17 returning starters, and it seems that no matter who they put at QB, they have outstanding success in this system. Baylor is known for its offense, but it has one of the best defensive lines in the country. The Bears play TCU and Kansas State on the road but will be a determined team after just missing out on the playoff last year.

5. Oregon Ducks
While he's not guaranteed a starting job (see Jake Coker with Alabama last year), bringing in Vernon Adams is huge for Oregon, as he had great success against the two Pac-12 teams he faced the last two years and threw for 10,438 yards with 110 touchdowns and 31 interceptions, while twice being the runner-up for the Walter Payton Award (FCS equivalent to the Heisman) at Eastern Washington. Adams should be a fine replacement for Marcus Mariota, and the Ducks have a great deal of depth at RB and WR with seven offensive starters back. Oregon does play Michigan State, Arizona State and Stanford on the road, but it¹s been pretty much an automatic as the Ducks' preseason ranking has been No. 3, No. 5, No. 3 and No. 3 the past four years.

6. Michigan State Spartans
MSU made my article for the first time last year when I pegged them to be No. 8 in the AP preseason poll, and that is exactly where the Spartans opened up. That comeback win against Baylor in the Cotton Bowl was huge, and they do have 13 returning starters (including QB Connor Cook, which is always a good place to start) and a veteran O-line. The Spartans' defense is always solid and has seven starters back. They have one road game against a team that finished in the AP Top 25, and that¹s a big one (Ohio State). They do get to host Oregon in Week 2 with the Ducks breaking in a new QB.

7. USC Trojans
USC got a nice blowout win over Notre Dame and a bowl win to finish last year at No. 20. This year, the sanctions are gone, the depth returns, they have 14 returning starters and two key things happened in the postseason. QB Cody Kessler opted to stay, and he was the best QB you never heard of last year, throwing for 3,826 yards (69.7 percent, 39 touchdowns, five interceptions), and they also brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Their starting 22 can match up with almost every other team in the country, and those final 2 factors put the Trojans into the top 10.

8. Florida State Seminoles
One game. FSU has lost a grand total of one game the past two years. In fact, the Seminoles are 39-3 the past three years. Jimbo Fisher brings in an elite recruiting class year in and year out. Yes, there are some losses for the Seminoles, as just 11 startersreturn, and they lose 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston. Still, talent abounds, and their defense this year will more resemble 2013 (281 ypg) than last year's numbers (397 ypg) with seven starters back. They have just five road games this year with Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida the trickiest, but they will likely be favored in all three.

9. Auburn Tigers
Just two years ago, Auburn was in the national title game despite not even being ranked in the preseason. Last year, the Tigers underachieved as they opened up preseason No. 6 and finished No. 22, including an Outback Bowl loss to Wisconsin. While they lose their QB, Jeremy Johnson looked great taking over for Nick Marshall and has a lot of talent to work with. Defense has not been a strong suit for Auburn in recent years, but with eight returning starters and Will Muschamp as the defensive coordinator, it will be this year. Auburn has just four true road games, and none of the four teams finished 2014 ranked. With another great recruiting class coming in, Auburn should make the preseason top 10.

10. Georgia Bulldogs
Last year seemed like a very disappointing year for Georgia and yet it still finished at No. 9. I don¹t think the AP voters will put three teams from the SEC West in the top 10, as they will knock each other off, but UGA is the clear-cut front-runner to win the SEC East. At times last season, the Bulldogs looked like the best team in college football, and they return their star-studded backfield led by Nick Chubb and bring in another tremendous recruiting class. With Florida at a neutral site, they have just three true SEC road games this year, and while they do play both Alabama and Georgia Tech, I think UGA will be the No. 10 team in the preseason AP poll.

In February, I took an early look at predicting the preseason AP Top 10 for 2015. Below, I've continued the predictions with Nos. 11-25, taking into account -- among other factors -- returning starters, bowl game performance and 2014 postseason ranking.

Before I get to the rankings, it's important to make the point that this is not my preseason 11-25 for 2014, but rather what I am projecting the AP poll's 11-25 will look like to start the season.

11. UCLA Bruins
The first thing that comes to mind as to why UCLA belongs here is coach Jim Mora. Prior to his arrival, the Bruins went through a stretch of six seasons in which they averaged 5.7 wins per season. Since taking over the Bruins, he has averaged 9.7 wins per year, including back-to-back 10-win seasons. While the Bruins lose quarterback Brett Hundley, they return 18 starters including a 1,500-yard rusher, seven of their top eight receivers and 13 of their top 17 tacklers.

12. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss finished No. 17 last season, and while half of the Magnolia State was disappointed in the Rebels' finish, they finished higher than they were ranked in the preseason (No. 18). The Rebels must find a new QB -- departing QB Bo Wallace threw an SEC-high 14 interceptions -- but they do return 16 starters. It takes a special coach to take over a 2-10 team and improve immediately to 7-6 in his first season. Fortunately for Ole Miss fans, Hugh Freeze not only accomplished that feat, but he has continued to build the program by getting the Rebels to eight wins in 2013 and nine wins last season. Lastly, while Ole Miss was beaten handily in two games, it had a lead in its other two losses -- at No. 24 LSU and vs. No. 4 Auburn -- in the fourth quarter.

13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
After losing their final four regular-season games last season, the injury-depleted Fighting Irish got healthier for their bowl game and beat LSU. This is now coach Brian Kelly's sixth season and, in his third season, he returned 14 starters and took Notre Dame to the national title game. In the past two seasons, the Irish returned only 12 and 10 starters and had nine and eight wins, respectively. Well, this season the Irish return 19 starters. Whoever wins the QB battle will be leading a veteran team.

14. LSU Tigers
Since 2001, LSU has been ranked in every preseason AP poll, beginning the season in the top eight seven times and in the top 14 every season but 2010. In addition, only three LSU underclassmen declared for the 2015 NFL draft, compared to 10 in 2013 (plus star Tyrann Mathieu, who was dismissed in 2012) and seven in 2014. LSU returns rising star running back Leonard Fournette along with 14 other starters, and the Tigers will be fired up for a bounce-back season. Last season's bowl loss kept them out of the final AP top 25 for the second time in 12 years.

15. Clemson Tigers
The Tigers RETURN AN ABUMDANCE OF SKILL PLAYERS INCLUDING QB Deshaun Watson, who had 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions a season ago, their TOP FOUR RUSHERS AND TOP 3 WRs. Clemson's defense, which ranked No. 1 in 2014, has a FEW HOLES TO FILL but is still talented. The trend line is good as well: After an upset win over No. 9 LSU in 2012, Clemson went on to finish No. 11 in the final rankings, and in 2013, the Tigers beat No. 7 Ohio State in their bowl to finish No. 8. After last season's 40-6 LAMBASTING of Oklahoma in the Russell Athletic Bowl to boost their final ranking to No. 15, you can expect the momentum to continue in Death Valley this season.

Uhhhhhhhh......? That adds up. Nice job Steele.

flag link

military_tech

thumb_down

thumb_up

My own take on all that....

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
My take: Strong team, strong coach, weak schedule. I do suspect they're less loaded at QB than initially appears - I've heard it hinted around the Interwebz that Braxton Miller's arm is still a lot less than 100% after two shoulder surgeries (you may recall a similar injury ended Willy Korn's career at Clemson), and JT Barrett's ankle injury was severe, not a good thing for a running QB; he still hasn't been cleared to practice or throw. Still think they'll coast through on a patsy schedule...the B1G looks very down again this year, so they probably coast into the playoffs this year without really ever being tested.

2. TCU Horned Frogs
Returns almost everybody. Hard to argue.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Lost a boatload off last year's team and have to break in a new QB, again. Return just four offensive starters off a very complex pro-style offense that takes awhile to hum. Ranked way too high, IMHO. I think Alabama is slipping a bit, and is good for 2-3 losses this year. They're still Top-10 or Top-15...but they are not a playoff team, not this year.

4. Baylor Bears
Need to replace Bryce Petty but are a "system" very much like Mike Leach's Air Raid that is very QB friendly. Have a decent defense. One enduring image I keep having is George O'Leary's UCF team slapping them around in the Fiesta Bowl a couple years back; when you get physical and ruff this team up, like a lot of Air Raid teams, they don't have a Plan B. They do have a ludicrous cream-puff schedule and should be punished for that but they will likely coast through a very, very down Big 12.

5. Oregon Ducks
I'm not as high on Oregon as a lot of people are because Mariota was just that important to these guys. I know they're bringing in a fifth-year FCS transfer wunderkid, but losing Mariota's sub-4.5 speed is going to hurt them whatever they think. Oregon's never had much of a defense...and, frankly, I'm just not that sold on Mark Helfrich. I think he's been riding Chip Kelly's system with Chip Kelly's players and at some point the fact that Helfrich is not Chip Kelly is going to start showing up. He is just not that impressive in terms of leadership, charisma, or demeanor and at some point you can't just know the playbook you gotta lead...and nobody will confuse Helfrich, again, with Chip Kelly, or Jim Harbaugh, or even David Shaw. I think last year was their high-water mark as a program...and they didn't get it done.

6. Michigan State Spartans
Decent team in a weak conference that gets a lot more love than they should. What have these cats really won besides a lot of regular-season games in a squishy-soft B1G? They had a great defense but the architect of that, Pat Narduzzi, is now at Pitt...without that D, they're just another smash-mouth B1G team, albeit a pretty good one...but Top-20 or Top-15 good, not Top-10. Too high.

7. USC Trojans
Loaded with talent, return a very, very good QB, well-coached. Probably too low, IMHO, if they can get by Oregon - and I think they can, this year. Probably a playoff team, unless they drop some games they shouldn't. I'd put them Top-5.

8. Florida State Seminoles
Hate to say it...but too low. Far too low. They've recruited insanely well, and their first seven games are basically slam-dunks, with every tough game at home, and it's not until they hit the road later on against Georgia Tech and then us they get anything resembling a challenge. I think they'll probably be unbeaten, and the #2 or #3 team in the country at worst, when they roll into Death Valley.

9. Auburn Tigers
Probably too low, though negotiating road games in the SEC West - where almost every game is played in front of 80,000+ - is always an interesting exercise. Malzahn's offense doesn't require a ton from the QB or receivers, so it's new-QB-friendly, and his tempo and precision are a product of an insane tempo and number of repetitions in practice. His offense will hum. His D has been disappointing but Will Muschamp can flat-out coach him some defense and I do suspect they'll be improved there.

10. Georgia Bulldogs
About right. On paper the Dawgs should roll the SEC East. In reality Richt always finds a way to drop a game or two he has no business losing.

11. UCLA Bruins
Probably too high. Yeah, they return a boatload of starters. They also lost QB Brett Hundley and honestly were up and down like a yo-yo last year. I will believe UCLA can challenge Southern Cal and Oregon (and Arizona, who I think is too low) when I actually see them do it.

12. Ole Miss Rebels
WAY too high. Are you kidding me? They were a fraudulent Top-10 last year and they're a fraudulent ranked team this year. They're going to be starting Swag Kelly - in all his hotheaded glory - this year at QB...and the pundits have them rated ahead of Clemson? Are you joking? It's seriously getting time for people to admit that aside from Auburn and Alabama - neither of whom really looks like a title contender this year - the SEC West is just not that good right now. These guys are on the level of NC State or UNC or Boston College, not a Top-25 team.

13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Probably too low. They return a boatload of players, lost almost nothing to the NFL draft, and Malik Zaire was good enough he caused Golson to transfer out. Last year I thought they were a fraud; this year I think they're probably better than the general consensus would have it. They're legit, certainly Top-10 good, if they play to their roster talent, and they're very, very experienced this year. I think it's going to be a very tough, very tight game in Death Valley, IMHO.

14. LSU Tigers
Too high, again. Other than the name on the jerseys and the recurring SEC-SEC-SEC you keep hearing, this LSU squad has been steadily losing steam ever since Clemson took them down in the Chic-fil-A bowl, when they were a legit Top-10 squad that was as loaded defensively as any team in college football. They aren't that good anymore, they just replaced DC John Chavis with Kevin Steele (no joke), and their offense is still wretched. I'd personally be stunned if they finish the year ranked in the Top-25. Les Miles could be in some hot water, IMHO.

15. Clemson Tigers
WAAY too low...if Watson is healthy. With a healthy Watson I literally do not know how anyone in the country stops this offense, which is going to be as big a buzz-saw to play as Oregon's was the last couple years. Clemson's skill talent is absurd, especially at the WR spot, and our OL looked dramatically better in the Spring Game. Our D is an open question - and yes, as Oregon discovered last year, Defense Indeed Wins Championships, or at least, teams without one don't win championships, and road games at Lousville, Miami, and an NC State I suspect is also a legit Top-25 team this year will test us...as will home tilts against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and FSU. (If we get through THAT unscathed, I dare any pollster to not rank us #1 in the country!) Our defense will have some wiggle room, though...because Clemson's offense will likely break scoreboards this year.

Teams that are way underrated this year are NC State - my pick for the ACC's sleeper team, UNC (yes, UNC), Tennessee, Arizona, and Arkansas. If Arkansas wasn't playing the SEC West I'd call them a likely Top-15 or Top-10 team, I still think they finish the season ranked and are my dark-horse pick (along with Tennessee) to win the SEC.

Our schedule is pure murder. The upside of that is, if we win out, it's going to be very hard for anybody to argue Clemson's strength of schedule this year.

Phill Steele (the standard for preseason AP polls) being paid off by ESPN? Look @ the contradictions

Is 15 not good?***

It's a slap in the face. Phil Steele (everyone really) hates

And I do believe ESPN pays him.

I thought most of their writers were offshore

Re: It's a slap in the face. Phil Steele (everyone really) hates

Do you know what a skill player is?

Re: Do you know what a skill player is?

Re: Do you know what a skill player is?

Re: Do you know what a skill player is?

what's a bum dance?***

Ok, so which top 10 team should we replace?

The most important position is QB.

Re: Phill Steele

too much ego by AP voters to be influenced ny Steele

Anyone who lists us in top 10 is insane imo

Re: Anyone who lists us in top 10 is insane imo

Re: Anyone who lists us in top 10 is insane imo

Good stuff Quozzel... thanks for the time and write up.***

+1... should be a re-post up top....***

Coot***

Steele does multiple lists

Here's the way I read it.

Re: Here's the way I read it.

TigerBoard POTD